Ranked 8th in both AP and coaches

[rumseyhouse77]

The prognostications I?ve read indicated that in scenario two, Michigan would go to the Fiesta Bowl.

ESPN has this prognostication with Michigan facing either LSU or Washington State. Either of those match ups would be more interesting that Florida.

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

LSU it will be

 

[byco42]

If a meteor hits AT&T Stadium, a sinkhole sucks Mercedes-Benz Stadium to the core of the Earth, and a herd of elephants trample every player in Lucas Oil Stadium, then Michigan has a real shot at the playoffs.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Hey, guess what? If every team ahead Michigan loses this weekend, they are projected to be in the playoff, lol. What a fucking thing that would be.

No they?re not.

It?s impossible for every team ahead of Michigan to lose.

 

[biggunsbob]

Even if Osu, Georgia, and Oklahoma losses I doubt we would get in. It does bother me that Clemson, and Alabama can both lose and still get in probably.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Even if Osu, Georgia, and Oklahoma losses I doubt we would get in. It does bother me that Clemson, and Alabama can both lose and still get in probably.

When you're undefeated you should have some type of advantage. Plus Alabama would lose to a #4 team - they should stay in the playoffs.

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

No they?re not.

It?s impossible for every team ahead of Michigan to lose.

You know what I meant, but I will clarify. If OSU, OU, Georgia, and UCF all lose, we're in.

 

[tinselwolverine]

You know what I meant, but I will clarify. If OSU, OU, Georgia, and UCF all lose, we're in.

Oh.

But still, no.

It would be Georgia.

Not that we?ll find out.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Georgia loses to the best team no way a Michigan 2 lose team, and no conference championship game gets in over a 2 loss Georgia team got the championship game and played Alabama. In-fact why would Michigan pass OSU, same record they got to a championship game and creamed us.

 

[rumseyhouse77]

Georgia loses to the best team no way a Michigan 2 lose team, and no conference championship game gets in over a 2 loss Georgia team got the championship game and played Alabama. In-fact why would Michigan pass OSU, same record they got to a championship game and creamed us.

Can't remember where I heard it, but I heard that getting to the conference game is only a small part of what the committee considers when picking the 4 best teams CFP. There is precedent for choosing a team that did not make it to their conference championship. Back in 2016 OSU was selected over PSU even though PSU had beat OSU earlier and PSU had won the B1G Conference Championship. Looking at Georgia's season, if they lose to Bama then they will have lost by 20 to LSU, who was ranked 13th at the time of the game, and now depending on which poll you look at is ranked between 10th and 14th. Michigan lost to two teams ranked in the top 10, ND (by one TD) that has been ranked 3rd in the polls pretty much all season, and OSU (by 23) that has ranked in the top 10 all season. If Georgia, OU, and OSU all lose, the committee is not going to have an easy decision.

I hope this season will push them to expand the CFP to 8 teams.

 

[tinselwolverine]

If Georgia, OU, and OSU all lose, the committee is not going to have an easy decision.

Yeah it will.

It will be George it without a second thought.

And the rationale will be that Georgia made it to its conference championship game.

We are not likely to find out-OU and OSU are unlikely to both lose-but if all that happens that will be the outcome and that will be the rationale.

EDIT: 538, the statistical analysis website, tells me I’m wrong by an inch.

In this scenario described, Texas gets in ahead of Georgia by micro percentage points.

A few other teams including Washington are given a slim chance. Michigan is given no statistical chance whatsoever - check that, the last possibility listed is OSU at 5%, so we can say that Michigan has less than a 5% chance.

The overall odds of this scenario happening are 4%.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Can't remember where I heard it, but I heard that getting to the conference game is only a small part of what the committee considers when picking the 4 best teams CFP. There is precedent for choosing a team that did not make it to their conference championship. Back in 2016 OSU was selected over PSU even though PSU had beat OSU earlier and PSU had won the B1G Conference Championship. Looking at Georgia's season, if they lose to Bama then they will have lost by 20 to LSU, who was ranked 13th at the time of the game, and now depending on which poll you look at is ranked between 10th and 14th. Michigan lost to two teams ranked in the top 10, ND (by one TD) that has been ranked 3rd in the polls pretty much all season, and OSU (by 23) that has ranked in the top 10 all season. If Georgia, OU, and OSU all lose, the committee is not going to have an easy decision.

I hope this season will push them to expand the CFP to 8 teams.

But Michigan loses in all those scenarios. The thing about the playoffs is you have the same arguments with 8 teams, the teams that missed out. Imo, it's not that we lost by 23 is that we gave up 62. Is still like the way it was back in the day, 2 polls and all big games on New Years day. I lose interest after that.I'm not watching playoffs a week later and more teams means more waiting.

 

[tinselwolverine]

But Michigan loses in all those scenarios. The thing about the playoffs is you have the same arguments with 8 teams, the teams that missed out. Imo, it's not that we lost by 23 is that we gave up 62. Is still like the way it was back in the day, 2 polls and all big games on New Years day. I lose interest after that.I'm not watching playoffs a week later and more teams means more waiting.

If you have five power five conference champions and three at large, a lot of the arguments go away.

If you didn?t win your conference championship you really don?t have much of an argument, and if there were three at large shots that you missed out on you have even less of an argument.

 

[TheVictors]

let osu go to the playoff and get smoked by alabama while we go to sunny pasadena for the Rose Bowl....


buddy of mine bitching all week over text about how this year was his "nightmare" because we lost to nd and osu and that he'd rather go 2-10 and beat those two teams.


I was like, listen ...the basketball and football teams are both Top 8 in the nation ..it's been like 20yrs since that was the case ...lighten up, Francis.

 

[tinselwolverine]

let osu go to the playoff and get smoked by alabama while we go to sunny pasadena for the Rose Bowl....


buddy of mine bitching all week over text about how this year was his "nightmare" because we lost to nd and osu and that he'd rather go 2-10 and beat those two teams.


I was like, listen ...the basketball and football teams are both Top 8 in the nation ..it's been like 20yrs since that was the case ...lighten up, Francis.

The basketball team is off to a way better start than it was at this point last year.

In the 538 piece a link to, they are projecting a statistical reasonable possibility that Notre Dame could be jumped by both conference champion OU and OSU if both win along with Alabama and Clemson.

Wouldn?t that be awesome? Michigan to the Rose Bowl, the Irish to the land of the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

 

[rumseyhouse77]

Yeah it will.

It will be George it without a second thought.

And the rationale will be that Georgia made it to its conference championship game.

We are not likely to find out-OU and OSU are unlikely to both lose-but if all that happens that will be the outcome and that will be the rationale.

EDIT: 538, the statistical analysis website, tells me I?m wrong by an inch.

In this scenario described, Texas gets in ahead of Georgia by micro percentage points.

A few other teams including Washington are given a slim chance. Michigan is given no statistical chance whatsoever - check that, the last possibility listed is OSU at 5%, so we can say that Michigan has less than a 5% chance.

The overall odds of this scenario happening are 4%.

I think ND is in the CFP no matter who else wins or loses. So, there is really only one spot to be decided, the 4th spot.