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The Stafford Slide
- Thread starter dubbsco
- Start date
Lions dominated the entire second half. Lions earned that win. it wasn't luck. If so it was luck for Atlanta they were up 21-0.
- Thread Author
- #103
tomdalton22
Senior Member
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- Aug 6, 2011
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- 25,385
Was that the same game that the Lions lost on a missed FG but got to kick it again because a penalty that THEY committed?
Every time I read this title I think of it like a dance move, akin to the Electric Slide. The difference is this dance is horribly out of time and tempo, has happy feet and odd movements and comes up woefully short of the mark.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you, the Stafford Slide (skip to 55s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jifY5zuqvqY#t=55
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you, the Stafford Slide (skip to 55s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jifY5zuqvqY#t=55
Last edited:
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2011
- Messages
- 57,130
Matt is more like he's doing the Tootsee Roll..
Not that everyone here isn't already on the same page (save for one troll), but Mike Sando writes how Matt Stafford needs to play better:
The Detroit Lions' offense has averaged 16 points per game since putting up 35 against the New York Giants in Week 1. Consecutive defeats on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots have focused attention on a unit that failed to score a touchdown in either of those defeats. The Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 25 other NFL teams have scored more touchdowns than the Lions have managed this season. Even the 1-10 Oakland Raiders have scored as many.
There always will be extenuating circumstances when an offense struggles, and in this case, the Lions' winning formula includes a generally outstanding defense. But if the Lions' new offensive scheme is going to launch quarterback Matthew Stafford into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks, as some thought it could, there is scant evidence the process is under way. Stafford ranks 21st of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR (53.3), behind players such as Mike Glennon and Josh McCown of the 2-9 Buccaneeers. He ranks 26th in passer rating (81.0). The five teams with passer ratings lower than the Lions' season-long figure have combined to go 10-44 this season.
Without Detroit's often-dominant defense, Stafford might be taking the kind of heat that the Chicago Bears' Jay Cutler has endured this season. Is Stafford holding back the Lions' offense? Is he basically Cutler with a better defensive line, as one personnel evaluator quipped? There are differing opinions on that one, but at the very least, Stafford is not elevating this offense through 11 games.
The Cutler comparison
This one came to mind over the weekend when ESPN's Kevin Negandhi tweeted a note about Stafford having an 0-14 record on the road against teams that finished the season with winning records. I figured most quarterbacks would have poor records in those situations. I noticed upon closer look that Cutler had a 1-14 record in those games over the same period. But no QB has even a .500 record in those games since Stafford entered the league in 2009. Peyton Manning heads the list at 7-8 since then. Tom Brady is 5-12.
Cutler comparisons apply anyway. This became clear when I looked at where Stafford stands through 72 career starts relative to eight other QBs who made their first 72 starts since 2006, which is the earliest year Total QBR data is available. Aaron Rodgers leads this list with a 74.1 QBR score through 72 starts. Matt Ryan is next at 68.2, followed by Tony Romo (63.2) and Philip Rivers (61.6). There is quite a drop to the next grouping. Stafford is fifth at 54.6, with Cutler next at 53.7, followed by Joe Flacco (51.4), Jason Campbell (47.8) and Matt Cassel (43.8). When parsing Stafford's 72 games into four 16-game blocks and one eight-game chunk representing most of this season, the QBR scores go like this: 40.3 through 16 starts with an historically bad supporting cast, followed by 63.5, 59.2, 55.4 and then 49.9 over his most recent eight games. The trend, if one exists, is in the wrong direction.
For reference, Manning's QBR score is a league-leading 81.0 since 2006, followed by Rodgers (75.1), Brady (73.1) and Brees (70.3). They represent the elite. The league average is 51.4 since 2006 and 57.3 this season. Stafford ranks 14th of 27 qualifying QBs since 2006, between Carson Palmer and Flacco. Cutler is a couple of spots ahead of him at No. 12.
"There is a comparison between Stafford and Cutler," a personnel evaluator said. "They have very good wide receivers, they have tight ends, they have backs who can catch the ball. They have a ton of weapons. You could make the case that Cutler likes throwing to Brandon Marshall too much, and Stafford likes throwing to Calvin Johnson too much. Is that hampering their play? How good is Cutler when Marshall is out, and how good is Stafford when Johnson has been out?"
With and without Calvin
Matthew Stafford's statistics this season with Calvin Johnson on or off the field.
Calvin Johnson On Off
Comp 146 98
Att 246 169
Pct. 59.3 58.0
Yards 1,779 1,164
Yards/att. 7.2 6.9
TD-INT 7-6 7-3
Passer rating 77.9 85.5
Avg. pass dist. 9.8 6.8
1st-down pct. 34.1 30.2
Sack pct. 7.3 7.0
Time before pass 2.58 2.40
Total QBR 60.4 42.8
The quick answer is that Stafford has been different -- better in some ways, not as good in others -- without Johnson on the field this season. Cutler hasn't been without Marshall enough over the past two seasons to make any type of comparison. Stafford has seven touchdown passes and three interceptions with Johnson off the field this season, compared to six TDs with seven INTs with Johnson. But his QBR score with Johnson is much higher (60.4, compared to 42.8 without him) largely because his average pass distance is a whopping three yards longer (9.8 to 6.8) with Johnson on the field. The QBR formula gives passers more credit for completing passes that travel farther downfield.
"Stafford is so much better than Cutler," said an offensive assistant who has studied both players. "He is really a dynamic passer. He throws the ball effortlessly with no windup. Cutler is not accurate and plays with no conscience in a bad way. He gets guys blown up. Stafford does at times, but he gives you the feel he wants to do it the right way. I just like that guy. They have gotta help him. Their line is not that good. I do not see the same from Reggie Bush. Calvin Johnson has been in and out of the lineup. The rookie tight end [Eric Ebron] has been hurt and hasn't gotten going."
Offensive approach plays a role
Both the personnel evaluator and offensive coach said without prompting that the Lions needed to shift their run-pass ratio toward the run. The evaluator thought it would be interesting to see where the Lions ranked in dropback rate over the third and fourth quarters of games when the margin was within one score either way. He figured this could measure a play-caller's discipline. Detroit's dropback rate in these situations is 61.9 percent, highest in the league and well above the 52.6 percent average (I excluded third downs, which are often passing situations for everyone).
The Lions haven't shown much of a commitment to the running game so far this season.
Earlier in the season, I noticed the Bears had the highest dropback rate on early downs in the first three quarters when neither team led by more than one score, parameters I thought were appropriate because they eliminated late-game situations when teams felt compelled to pass. They still lead the league in that category at 67.2 percent, followed by Atlanta (65.3), Detroit (65.0), Indianapolis (65.0), Denver (63.3) and New Orleans (63.1).
"Their team identity [in Detroit] is changing and I think they like it, but they are not sure what it is yet," the offensive assistant said. "If they would make sure they had 35 rushing attempts with that defense, it would minimize the quarterback position in a good way. They would still fall back at the position, but less often and not as far."
The personnel evaluator wanted to know whether Stafford might be checking out of running plays into passes as part of his pre-snap work at the line of scrimmage. The offensive assistant watched the Lions play this season and did not think that was likely the case. He also did not perceive Stafford to be "overly cerebral" in terms of his ability to seamlessly handle complex pre-snap adjustments the way Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees have done for years, and the way Andrew Luck is trending early in his career.
"If you can get a run game going, you make that QB better," the evaluator said. "They do not have the horse like [Eddie Lacy], but just look at what DeMarco Murray has done for Dallas. Either the Lions do not do it or they do not feel like they have the guys to do it. They were in a close game at Arizona and seemed to get away from the run."
Following in Brees' footsteps, but not keeping up
Brees versus Stafford
How Stafford and Brees compare through 11 games in a Saints-style offense.
QB Brees Stafford
Season 2006 2011
Games 1-11 1-11
W-L 7-4 7-4
Comp. 275 244
Att. 433 415
Pct. 66.6 58.8
Yards 3,463 2,943
Yards/att. 8.4 7.1
TD-INT 19-10 13-10
Total QBR 74.0 53.3
The Brees comparison is apt because the Lions are running the Saints' scheme after hiring Joe Lombardi away from New Orleans as offensive coordinator. They are only 11 games into the process, so it's hardly time for final judgments. But as the chart shows, Brees was producing at a higher level through his first 11 games in the offense.
Stafford's sack rate has spiked to a career-high 7.2 percent, more than double the rate from last season and well above his 4.4 percent rate from 2009-13. Has the line faltered? Is Stafford struggling through his reads in a new offense? Is he taking sacks instead of making risky throws, a potential response to Lombardi's stated emphasis on avoiding high-risk plays in low-risk situations? The Lions themselves probably do not know all the answers.
You are what you are ... or are you?
A study Bill Polian and I conducted during the offseason suggested most quarterbacks in recent seasons never become much better than what they showed during their first 16 starts. Stafford has already been an exception, but not to the extent his talent suggests is possible. A panel of 26 coaches and evaluators this offseason combined to give him a 2.38 average on a 1-5 scale, making Stafford the 13th-rated starting QB entering the season. He was near the bottom of the second tier, but when I asked panelists to identify the player they deemed most likely to ascend into the top group, Stafford was the most popular choice.
"If he finds someone to force him to be disciplined, and they run the ball, he can be any of those guys," one of the panelists said. "That guy is way above average physically, really competitive, really quick with the ball, way faster than people give him credit for, especially his quickness to avoid. He has the whole deal if he is not too far gone with the, 'I just have to make a play and do it my way.' You need someone willing to coach him on a daily basis. He was raised by wolves over there."
The Lions still do not know what their offense will look like with Johnson, Golden Tate, Bush and Ebron on the field together for long stretches. Stafford has had those four together for only 40 of his 508 QB action plays this season. He has completed 20 of 36 passes for 212 yards with three TDs, zero INTs, a 100.7 passer rating, two sacks and a 83.0 QBR score with that grouping on the field.
There are other encouraging signs. Stafford is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a 75.0 QBR score on third down, career bests by wide margins. He oddly ranks seventh in third-down QBR but only 27th across first and second downs (41.4). That suggests there's a lot of untapped potential in this offense.
But Stafford hasn't been able to bring it out consistently through his first 11 games in this scheme. This is a good Lions team overall and one I expect to reach the playoffs, but Detroit will need more from Stafford to maximize its championship potential.
Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...eeping-detroit-lions-maximizing-potential-nfl
The Detroit Lions' offense has averaged 16 points per game since putting up 35 against the New York Giants in Week 1. Consecutive defeats on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots have focused attention on a unit that failed to score a touchdown in either of those defeats. The Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 25 other NFL teams have scored more touchdowns than the Lions have managed this season. Even the 1-10 Oakland Raiders have scored as many.
There always will be extenuating circumstances when an offense struggles, and in this case, the Lions' winning formula includes a generally outstanding defense. But if the Lions' new offensive scheme is going to launch quarterback Matthew Stafford into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks, as some thought it could, there is scant evidence the process is under way. Stafford ranks 21st of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR (53.3), behind players such as Mike Glennon and Josh McCown of the 2-9 Buccaneeers. He ranks 26th in passer rating (81.0). The five teams with passer ratings lower than the Lions' season-long figure have combined to go 10-44 this season.
Without Detroit's often-dominant defense, Stafford might be taking the kind of heat that the Chicago Bears' Jay Cutler has endured this season. Is Stafford holding back the Lions' offense? Is he basically Cutler with a better defensive line, as one personnel evaluator quipped? There are differing opinions on that one, but at the very least, Stafford is not elevating this offense through 11 games.
The Cutler comparison
This one came to mind over the weekend when ESPN's Kevin Negandhi tweeted a note about Stafford having an 0-14 record on the road against teams that finished the season with winning records. I figured most quarterbacks would have poor records in those situations. I noticed upon closer look that Cutler had a 1-14 record in those games over the same period. But no QB has even a .500 record in those games since Stafford entered the league in 2009. Peyton Manning heads the list at 7-8 since then. Tom Brady is 5-12.
Cutler comparisons apply anyway. This became clear when I looked at where Stafford stands through 72 career starts relative to eight other QBs who made their first 72 starts since 2006, which is the earliest year Total QBR data is available. Aaron Rodgers leads this list with a 74.1 QBR score through 72 starts. Matt Ryan is next at 68.2, followed by Tony Romo (63.2) and Philip Rivers (61.6). There is quite a drop to the next grouping. Stafford is fifth at 54.6, with Cutler next at 53.7, followed by Joe Flacco (51.4), Jason Campbell (47.8) and Matt Cassel (43.8). When parsing Stafford's 72 games into four 16-game blocks and one eight-game chunk representing most of this season, the QBR scores go like this: 40.3 through 16 starts with an historically bad supporting cast, followed by 63.5, 59.2, 55.4 and then 49.9 over his most recent eight games. The trend, if one exists, is in the wrong direction.
For reference, Manning's QBR score is a league-leading 81.0 since 2006, followed by Rodgers (75.1), Brady (73.1) and Brees (70.3). They represent the elite. The league average is 51.4 since 2006 and 57.3 this season. Stafford ranks 14th of 27 qualifying QBs since 2006, between Carson Palmer and Flacco. Cutler is a couple of spots ahead of him at No. 12.
"There is a comparison between Stafford and Cutler," a personnel evaluator said. "They have very good wide receivers, they have tight ends, they have backs who can catch the ball. They have a ton of weapons. You could make the case that Cutler likes throwing to Brandon Marshall too much, and Stafford likes throwing to Calvin Johnson too much. Is that hampering their play? How good is Cutler when Marshall is out, and how good is Stafford when Johnson has been out?"
With and without Calvin
Matthew Stafford's statistics this season with Calvin Johnson on or off the field.
Calvin Johnson On Off
Comp 146 98
Att 246 169
Pct. 59.3 58.0
Yards 1,779 1,164
Yards/att. 7.2 6.9
TD-INT 7-6 7-3
Passer rating 77.9 85.5
Avg. pass dist. 9.8 6.8
1st-down pct. 34.1 30.2
Sack pct. 7.3 7.0
Time before pass 2.58 2.40
Total QBR 60.4 42.8
The quick answer is that Stafford has been different -- better in some ways, not as good in others -- without Johnson on the field this season. Cutler hasn't been without Marshall enough over the past two seasons to make any type of comparison. Stafford has seven touchdown passes and three interceptions with Johnson off the field this season, compared to six TDs with seven INTs with Johnson. But his QBR score with Johnson is much higher (60.4, compared to 42.8 without him) largely because his average pass distance is a whopping three yards longer (9.8 to 6.8) with Johnson on the field. The QBR formula gives passers more credit for completing passes that travel farther downfield.
"Stafford is so much better than Cutler," said an offensive assistant who has studied both players. "He is really a dynamic passer. He throws the ball effortlessly with no windup. Cutler is not accurate and plays with no conscience in a bad way. He gets guys blown up. Stafford does at times, but he gives you the feel he wants to do it the right way. I just like that guy. They have gotta help him. Their line is not that good. I do not see the same from Reggie Bush. Calvin Johnson has been in and out of the lineup. The rookie tight end [Eric Ebron] has been hurt and hasn't gotten going."
Offensive approach plays a role
Both the personnel evaluator and offensive coach said without prompting that the Lions needed to shift their run-pass ratio toward the run. The evaluator thought it would be interesting to see where the Lions ranked in dropback rate over the third and fourth quarters of games when the margin was within one score either way. He figured this could measure a play-caller's discipline. Detroit's dropback rate in these situations is 61.9 percent, highest in the league and well above the 52.6 percent average (I excluded third downs, which are often passing situations for everyone).
The Lions haven't shown much of a commitment to the running game so far this season.
Earlier in the season, I noticed the Bears had the highest dropback rate on early downs in the first three quarters when neither team led by more than one score, parameters I thought were appropriate because they eliminated late-game situations when teams felt compelled to pass. They still lead the league in that category at 67.2 percent, followed by Atlanta (65.3), Detroit (65.0), Indianapolis (65.0), Denver (63.3) and New Orleans (63.1).
"Their team identity [in Detroit] is changing and I think they like it, but they are not sure what it is yet," the offensive assistant said. "If they would make sure they had 35 rushing attempts with that defense, it would minimize the quarterback position in a good way. They would still fall back at the position, but less often and not as far."
The personnel evaluator wanted to know whether Stafford might be checking out of running plays into passes as part of his pre-snap work at the line of scrimmage. The offensive assistant watched the Lions play this season and did not think that was likely the case. He also did not perceive Stafford to be "overly cerebral" in terms of his ability to seamlessly handle complex pre-snap adjustments the way Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees have done for years, and the way Andrew Luck is trending early in his career.
"If you can get a run game going, you make that QB better," the evaluator said. "They do not have the horse like [Eddie Lacy], but just look at what DeMarco Murray has done for Dallas. Either the Lions do not do it or they do not feel like they have the guys to do it. They were in a close game at Arizona and seemed to get away from the run."
Following in Brees' footsteps, but not keeping up
Brees versus Stafford
How Stafford and Brees compare through 11 games in a Saints-style offense.
QB Brees Stafford
Season 2006 2011
Games 1-11 1-11
W-L 7-4 7-4
Comp. 275 244
Att. 433 415
Pct. 66.6 58.8
Yards 3,463 2,943
Yards/att. 8.4 7.1
TD-INT 19-10 13-10
Total QBR 74.0 53.3
The Brees comparison is apt because the Lions are running the Saints' scheme after hiring Joe Lombardi away from New Orleans as offensive coordinator. They are only 11 games into the process, so it's hardly time for final judgments. But as the chart shows, Brees was producing at a higher level through his first 11 games in the offense.
Stafford's sack rate has spiked to a career-high 7.2 percent, more than double the rate from last season and well above his 4.4 percent rate from 2009-13. Has the line faltered? Is Stafford struggling through his reads in a new offense? Is he taking sacks instead of making risky throws, a potential response to Lombardi's stated emphasis on avoiding high-risk plays in low-risk situations? The Lions themselves probably do not know all the answers.
You are what you are ... or are you?
A study Bill Polian and I conducted during the offseason suggested most quarterbacks in recent seasons never become much better than what they showed during their first 16 starts. Stafford has already been an exception, but not to the extent his talent suggests is possible. A panel of 26 coaches and evaluators this offseason combined to give him a 2.38 average on a 1-5 scale, making Stafford the 13th-rated starting QB entering the season. He was near the bottom of the second tier, but when I asked panelists to identify the player they deemed most likely to ascend into the top group, Stafford was the most popular choice.
"If he finds someone to force him to be disciplined, and they run the ball, he can be any of those guys," one of the panelists said. "That guy is way above average physically, really competitive, really quick with the ball, way faster than people give him credit for, especially his quickness to avoid. He has the whole deal if he is not too far gone with the, 'I just have to make a play and do it my way.' You need someone willing to coach him on a daily basis. He was raised by wolves over there."
The Lions still do not know what their offense will look like with Johnson, Golden Tate, Bush and Ebron on the field together for long stretches. Stafford has had those four together for only 40 of his 508 QB action plays this season. He has completed 20 of 36 passes for 212 yards with three TDs, zero INTs, a 100.7 passer rating, two sacks and a 83.0 QBR score with that grouping on the field.
There are other encouraging signs. Stafford is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a 75.0 QBR score on third down, career bests by wide margins. He oddly ranks seventh in third-down QBR but only 27th across first and second downs (41.4). That suggests there's a lot of untapped potential in this offense.
But Stafford hasn't been able to bring it out consistently through his first 11 games in this scheme. This is a good Lions team overall and one I expect to reach the playoffs, but Detroit will need more from Stafford to maximize its championship potential.
Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...eeping-detroit-lions-maximizing-potential-nfl
Last edited:
tonyballs
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2011
- Messages
- 10,053
We're lucky?? So when LKP says we're unlucky that we lost, you guys bash him to death. Makes no sense, broheim.
For the record, i'm not starting a war ...just making a point.
mhughes0021
Senior Member
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2011
- Messages
- 28,746
for arguments sake:
our arguments that we were lucky to be at 7-4 were due to wildly contested last second wins mainly due to factors out of our control...ie Julio jones dropping a screen, delay of game for a rekick, unfathomable interceptions thrown right to us with none of their guys around, questionable calls (pass interference and defensive holding by a lineman), miraculous 1 handed catches (Riddick). If any single one of these things don't happen...were not sitting at 8 wins. That's basically the definition of luck. not to mention we did all of that with a struggling qb.
his arguments were ie....the air is too dry in Arizona to kick a football, injuries, weather, other team is on a hot streak etc etc etc.
you cant possibly compare the 2 arguments lol.
Last edited:
tonyballs
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2011
- Messages
- 10,053
Sure i can. Take out all the insanity LKP says. He makes a lot of valid points with drops, missed FGS etc etc. We could easily be 9-3, maybe even 10-2 right now. Luck or no luck, it's football. You guys say "we're lucky" and that's your opinion, but when LKP says unlucky, you guys laugh in his face. It goes both ways, man...
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