Tigers interested in + now with agreement in place for Joakim Soria

[Rebbiv]

Two wrongs do not make a right.

The bullpen was never adequately addressed in the offseason. Now, we are going to you assets that otherwise might address some other aspect of the team (corner OF after this year) just to get someone to help. Hogwash.

I have already offered a solution. You put pitchers like Lobstein and VerHagen in the pen. Long term, that is probably where they will end up anyways and save the true assets.

And relievers do not decide that many games, unless you have a weak offense or piss poor starting pitching.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Two wrongs do not make a right.

The bullpen was never adequately addressed in the offseason. Now, we are going to you assets that otherwise might address some other aspect of the team (corner OF after this year) just to get someone to help. Hogwash.

I have already offered a solution. You put pitchers like Lobstein and VerHagen in the pen. Long term, that is probably where they will end up anyways and save the true assets.

And relievers do not decide that many games, unless you have a weak offense or piss poor starting pitching.

I don't care about next year's corner outfielder. Not in the slightest. The ONLY team that matters is the 2014 Detroit Tigers. This opportunity may take another 30 years to come around.

I will turn your cliche' back around "Two wrongs do not make a right." They didn't do enough to address the bullpen. Doing nothing again and calling up more minor league players is the second wrong in my book.

This past weekend shows what can happen to a 2-0 lead when there is no one in the pen to help. Most teams have weak offenses in the Playoffs - because the best pitching staffs go the deepest. 1/3 of the game is covered by relievers - even given good starting pitching. How can you rationalize 1/3 of the game not mattering?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I will append and say that a bullpen only matters if you have the starting pitching that can keep a game close. There is an offensive component there as well. Baseball is a synergistic game.

Seven roster spots are held by relief pitchers on the Detroit Tigers active roster. That is more than 1/4 of the players on the team. Those players constitute a pitching staff. The worse they are - the worse a team's pitching is.

Willy Adames being linked to the Soria trade. He and Bernard have some good numbers at West Michigan.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=582&stn=true&sid=t582

 

[Mitchrapp]

The same can be said for ANY position on the field in the middle of a season. Baseball history is riddled with examples of OF'ers who stopped hitting or started hitting or hit at the same rate. Same for pitchers - starters or relievers. I won't even give an example because then I'd be compelled to give 100.

It is nearing the end of July - the Free Agent market is dried up, the only way to fix a team is through trade. "Not as the main piece" that is the most absurd concept that can be proposed and I'm glad you said it again. The team's biggest need is a closer - hell even Nathan has said he would understand. But YOU say "No, it can't be the main piece of the trade." So does that mean go get a throw-in closer as part of a trade for a position that isn't of need?

If the team is already talent deficient in terms of trade pieces then you will only get less reliever if you try to address another area at the same time. You will get a total shit pitcher if you get a reliever that isn't "the main piece" of the trade. Why do you think this team needs another shitty relief pitcher? Or do you think today's Bullpen looks like it is ready to help deliver a championship in October?

I won't post the links of every sportswriter in this town and on ESPN talking about how the Tigers need to trade for a top-end reliever. The island of "most" is depopulating every day. I don't use them because I've advocated getting one more front-line reliever since they let Benoit walk. Relievers decide more games than you (and many) give credit. Baseball puts an inordinate amount of importance on the first five and the last inning of a baseball game. 1/3 of the game is often covered by "unimportant" pitchers.

If your pen doesn't have three guys you can trust going in to the 7th your chances in close games (Playoffs) are greatly diminished. The Tigers have .5 (Chamberlain - who I don't trust in the 9th but I'll count as one if we're talking 7th or 8th).

The difference, at least taking a chance on a position player, they play everyday..where a RP might get 60 innings.

 

[Thumb]

I don't care about next year's corner outfielder. Not in the slightest. The ONLY team that matters is the 2014 Detroit Tigers.

I'm sure you will feel very differently next season.

You want to leverage the next few years chance at success to that we might have a shot at a WS this year.

Sorry, but we are not as good a team as we were last year, or in 2012. Mostly because our rotation is aging/struggling and the bullpen. The idea of trading away anything of value for a couple of band-aid fixes in the bullpen, for the outside shot that we might win the WS is not sound logic.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

The difference, at least taking a chance on a position player, they play everyday..where a RP might get 60 innings.

You are still thinking about the regular season. I want the relief pitcher for 11 innings in October. That probably makes you even more angry to think about. The biggest pitches of the playoffs are thrown by relievers.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I'm sure you will feel very differently next season.

You want to leverage the next few years chance at success to that we might have a shot at a WS this year.

Sorry, but we are not as good a team as we were last year, or in 2012. Mostly because our rotation is aging/struggling and the bullpen. The idea of trading away anything of value for a couple of band-aid fixes in the bullpen, for the outside shot that we might win the WS is not sound logic.

I'm sure you're wrong.

I'm also surprised that people who say the Tiger farm system has little in the way of impact players wants to hoard it like gold.

I disagree that this team isn't as strong as previous years but that's a different thread. The idea of holding on to prospects to have a middle of the road team in a few years is not sound logic.

Dying without a WS championship so that the 2017 team has a chance isn't sound logic either.

 

[jdeb]

The Tigers do not have anything to give up for Price, Hamels types.

 

[Rebbiv]

My gawd. Am I the only one that understands that relievers don't succeed every time out?

This is like expecting hitters to hit .500 BAVG. It just isn't logical. The bullpen is going to fail. All bullpens fail. Is DET's worse than the next team? Probably, but that difference isn't all that much.

My issue is that Ausmus is mis-utilizing the pitchers/pen. This team could have Mo Rivera in his prime and still be giving up runs.

The average bull pen gives up 4.25 runs a game. DET is giving up 4.29. Pretty close to average. 5 of the top 6 teams in relieve runs per game pitch in a pitcher friendly park.

DET is tied for 5th in Save Percentage at 71% and the AL Average is 68%. Where is the disparity? Or is this just how relieve pitching goes?

While losing a game that should have been won is frustrating, all teams experience it. And yes, it seems it is happening more with DET. And certainly Nathan has been a lot to be desired.

Let's digress for a minute. Over the last 10 years, 66% of all AL wins come when the team scores 5 runs or more, regardless of pitching. Meaning, 33% of their wins come when the offense doesn't score 5 runs. On average, an AL team wins 28 times when neither team scores 5 runs or more. The best teams only averaged 33 wins compared to the 28. So of that 5 win difference, how many was offense, defense, relief pitching? How many would have been lost regardless.

I can offer up data upon data to show how relief pitchers really don't effect the outcome as much as you claim. Yet, what data do you have? What research have you done? Oh, because newspaper writers say so (thanks Rob Parker), then it must be true. Hogwash.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

The Tigers do not have anything to give up for Price, Hamels types.

Drew Smyly, Jake Thompson, Josh Turley, Devon Travis, Hernan Perez and you probably have Price.

 

[Thumb]

I'm sure you're wrong.

I'm also surprised that people who say the Tiger farm system has little in the way of impact players wants to hoard it like gold.

I disagree that this team isn't as strong as previous years but that's a different thread. The idea of holding on to prospects to have a middle of the road team in a few years is not sound logic.

Dying without a WS championship so that the 2017 team has a chance isn't sound logic either.

So if we did what you say and still lost in the playoffs or the WS (lesser teams beat better ones all the time..:see 2006 Det vs. NYY) You think dying then without a WS championship would be justified because we took our best shot?

I mean who cares if we might be viable for the next few years as playoff contenders if we had kept some value to trade for pieces we needed in the offseason.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You are still thinking about the regular season. I want the relief pitcher for 11 innings in October. That probably makes you even more angry to think about. The biggest pitches of the playoffs are thrown by relievers.

Right. So SP who pitch longer have no effect or the offense..Right. we scored very few runs in the series against Boston. If anything contributed to our losses more it was the offense..

 

[Mitchrapp]

My gawd. Am I the only one that understands that relievers don't succeed every time out?

This is like expecting hitters to hit .500 BAVG. It just isn't logical. The bullpen is going to fail. All bullpens fail. Is DET's worse than the next team? Probably, but that difference isn't all that much.

My issue is that Ausmus is mis-utilizing the pitchers/pen. This team could have Mo Rivera in his prime and still be giving up runs.

The average bull pen gives up 4.25 runs a game. DET is giving up 4.29. Pretty close to average. 5 of the top 6 teams in relieve runs per game pitch in a pitcher friendly park.

DET is tied for 5th in Save Percentage at 71% and the AL Average is 68%. Where is the disparity? Or is this just how relieve pitching goes?

While losing a game that should have been won is frustrating, all teams experience it. And yes, it seems it is happening more with DET. And certainly Nathan has been a lot to be desired.

Let's digress for a minute. Over the last 10 years, 66% of all AL wins come when the team scores 5 runs or more, regardless of pitching. Meaning, 33% of their wins come when the offense doesn't score 5 runs. On average, an AL team wins 28 times when neither team scores 5 runs or more. The best teams only averaged 33 wins compared to the 28. So of that 5 win difference, how many was offense, defense, relief pitching? How many would have been lost regardless.

I can offer up data upon data to show how relief pitchers really don't effect the outcome as much as you claim. Yet, what data do you have? What research have you done? Oh, because newspaper writers say so (thanks Rob Parker), then it must be true. Hogwash.

1,000,000% agree.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

My gawd. Am I the only one that understands that relievers don't succeed every time out?

This is like expecting hitters to hit .500 BAVG. It just isn't logical. The bullpen is going to fail. All bullpens fail. Is DET's worse than the next team? Probably, but that difference isn't all that much.

My issue is that Ausmus is mis-utilizing the pitchers/pen. This team could have Mo Rivera in his prime and still be giving up runs.

The average bull pen gives up 4.25 runs a game. DET is giving up 4.29. Pretty close to average. 5 of the top 6 teams in relieve runs per game pitch in a pitcher friendly park.

DET is tied for 5th in Save Percentage at 71% and the AL Average is 68%. Where is the disparity? Or is this just how relieve pitching goes?

While losing a game that should have been won is frustrating, all teams experience it. And yes, it seems it is happening more with DET. And certainly Nathan has been a lot to be desired.

Let's digress for a minute. Over the last 10 years, 66% of all AL wins come when the team scores 5 runs or more, regardless of pitching. Meaning, 33% of their wins come when the offense doesn't score 5 runs. On average, an AL team wins 28 times when neither team scores 5 runs or more. The best teams only averaged 33 wins compared to the 28. So of that 5 win difference, how many was offense, defense, relief pitching? How many would have been lost regardless.

I can offer up data upon data to show how relief pitchers really don't effect the outcome as much as you claim. Yet, what data do you have? What research have you done? Oh, because newspaper writers say so (thanks Rob Parker), then it must be true. Hogwash.

Am I the only who understands that a Bullpen is bigger than the closer? Save percentage as analysis? Rob Parker can fart and add more to the conversation than save percentage as a metric for a bullpen's failure or success. It doesn't account for the 3-2 game that becomes 7-2 the moment the gascans get brought in.

It was already posted the difference between Boston's BP and Detroit's in last season's playoff. For the purpose of this trade I'm only concerned with the bullpen in the playoffs. I agree during the regular season it isn't that traumatic and I haven't gotten that excited over it. I know this team doesn't have the pitcher who can get it done on October 15th in game 6 of the ALCS.

If a reliever has such little impact why was Uehara the MVP of the ALCS?

There are NO matchups when you have Mariano Rivera. You gave him the ball in the 9th and then you go home with the win. To say that Ausmus is giving up runs because he is handing the ball to Nathan is odd at best.

Bullpens fail - teams that have worse relievers have bullpens that fail more often. Detroit has proven their relievers aren't as good as other team's. You really need that broken down beyond what Fangraphs will tell you in about 20 seconds?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

So if we did what you say and still lost in the playoffs or the WS (lesser teams beat better ones all the time..:see 2006 Det vs. NYY) You think dying then without a WS championship would be justified because we took our best shot?

I mean who cares if we might be viable for the next few years as playoff contenders if we had kept some value to trade for pieces we needed in the offseason.

The 2006 Tigers were better than the 2006 Yankees. For myself, hell yes. I would rather go out knowing I did all I could instead of calling up Kyle Lobstein to get me a ring.

"might be viable for the next few years" using pieces you don't think are good enough to help the team. Other teams will be clamoring for those prospects.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Kyle Lobstein, lol.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Am I the only who understands that a Bullpen is bigger than the closer? Save percentage as analysis? Rob Parker can fart and add more to the conversation than save percentage as a metric for a bullpen's failure or success. It doesn't account for the 3-2 game that becomes 7-2 the moment the gascans get brought in.

It was already posted the difference between Boston's BP and Detroit's in last season's playoff. For the purpose of this trade I'm only concerned with the bullpen in the playoffs. I agree during the regular season it isn't that traumatic and I haven't gotten that excited over it. I know this team doesn't have the pitcher who can get it done on October 15th in game 6 of the ALCS.

If a reliever has such little impact why was Uehara the MVP of the ALCS?

There are NO matchups when you have Mariano Rivera. You gave him the ball in the 9th and then you go home with the win. To say that Ausmus is giving up runs because he is handing the ball to Nathan is odd at best.

Bullpens fail - teams that have worse relievers have bullpens that fail more often. Detroit has proven their relievers aren't as good as other team's. You really need that broken down beyond what Fangraphs will tell you in about 20 seconds?

The point was one RP to an another there isn't much difference, Kyle Lobstein not withstanding

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Right. So SP who pitch longer have no effect or the offense..Right. we scored very few runs in the series against Boston. If anything contributed to our losses more it was the offense..

Is hyperbole your only method of communication? Show me ONE instance where I have even insinuated that SP have no effect on offense. You can't because you're making things up.

The Red Sox outscored Detroit 19-18 in the ALCS. The Tigers got one run off of their bullpen. The Tiger offense sucked in the late innings of the games because their pitchers were BETTER than the offense. It happens in baseball. Look at Boston's BP this season. Oh! They're still good pitchers...

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

The point was one RP to an another there isn't much difference, Kyle Lobstein not withstanding

Kyle Lobstein is one of Reb's choices - that's why I'm using him.

If the prevailing logic is to believe that Soria and Lobstein (or VerHagen) offer the same chance to win a 3-2 game in October then I'm glad to call myself insane and go against the masses.

 

[spockmaster]

My gawd. Am I the only one that understands that relievers don't succeed every time out?

This is like expecting hitters to hit .500 BAVG. It just isn't logical. The bullpen is going to fail. All bullpens fail. Is DET's worse than the next team? Probably, but that difference isn't all that much.

My issue is that Ausmus is mis-utilizing the pitchers/pen. This team could have Mo Rivera in his prime and still be giving up runs.

The average bull pen gives up 4.25 runs a game. DET is giving up 4.29. Pretty close to average. 5 of the top 6 teams in relieve runs per game pitch in a pitcher friendly park.

DET is tied for 5th in Save Percentage at 71% and the AL Average is 68%. Where is the disparity? Or is this just how relieve pitching goes?

While losing a game that should have been won is frustrating, all teams experience it. And yes, it seems it is happening more with DET. And certainly Nathan has been a lot to be desired.

Let's digress for a minute. Over the last 10 years, 66% of all AL wins come when the team scores 5 runs or more, regardless of pitching. Meaning, 33% of their wins come when the offense doesn't score 5 runs. On average, an AL team wins 28 times when neither team scores 5 runs or more. The best teams only averaged 33 wins compared to the 28. So of that 5 win difference, how many was offense, defense, relief pitching? How many would have been lost regardless.

I can offer up data upon data to show how relief pitchers really don't effect the outcome as much as you claim. Yet, what data do you have? What research have you done? Oh, because newspaper writers say so (thanks Rob Parker), then it must be true. Hogwash.

I fully agree as well, and so does Lynn Henning:

"If I were Tigers, I'd be very reluctant to make an expensive trade in 2014. Get help -- but only affordably. Too much future mortgaging."

"Suspect that trip to Anaheim this weekend will show why Tigers need more than a bullpen arm to go deep into the playoffs."


Henning has gone from party-line guy to actually having insightful analysis a lot of the time this year. Its a breath of fresh air from morons like Parker and Tony Paul.