"...which is to say, every year a player ages, they are 2% more likely to make a trip to the DL. The risk of injury is quite substantial in a player’s late 30s–almost 50%."
So first, clearly, very clearly, the fact that Miguel Cabrera is 30 vs 32 offers a not very significant increase on the risk of injury and a DL trip, a 4% increase even over 4 years that's only an 8% increase. Also that 50% number is out of context, in case you haven't noticed out of context statistics disgust me. Such reasoning is the tool of hobgoblins. But, it does represent a significant increase in rate of injury. Essentially, a player in their late thirties is twice as likely to be injured as a player in their early twenties.
Another thing that might be interesting about the notions of injuries and aging, does a player going on the DL mean they are more likely to go on the DL later, or is it more of a statistical sense that all players average X amount of days or weeks on the DL and those who have been on the DL tend to be on the DL less later. Of course, not all situations of the same and so I would be extremely dubious all of any sort of statistical analysis of that but it would be worth thinking about.
Next, I was thinking of the downward trajectory of the talent on the team, the talent that is signed contractually to them and the more or less core roster. The point about talent leaving the team in relation of a downward trajectory, it seems to me, is a different matter entirely. That it seems to me is more about management's inability to compensate for those losses, rather than any representation of the teams contracted talent. However, only an idiot would argue that the Tigers haven't lost talent since 2014 in terms of starting pitching. I mean a playoff rotation of Verlander, price, Scherzer, and Sanchez( should have been starting even if it was on limited pitch count) , is certainly better than anything the Tigers are going to have any time soon.
But, last year, before the sell off, and this coming year I think they have a better offense than they've had in years.
So first, clearly, very clearly, the fact that Miguel Cabrera is 30 vs 32 offers a not very significant increase on the risk of injury and a DL trip, a 4% increase even over 4 years that's only an 8% increase. Also that 50% number is out of context, in case you haven't noticed out of context statistics disgust me. Such reasoning is the tool of hobgoblins. But, it does represent a significant increase in rate of injury. Essentially, a player in their late thirties is twice as likely to be injured as a player in their early twenties.
Another thing that might be interesting about the notions of injuries and aging, does a player going on the DL mean they are more likely to go on the DL later, or is it more of a statistical sense that all players average X amount of days or weeks on the DL and those who have been on the DL tend to be on the DL less later. Of course, not all situations of the same and so I would be extremely dubious all of any sort of statistical analysis of that but it would be worth thinking about.
Next, I was thinking of the downward trajectory of the talent on the team, the talent that is signed contractually to them and the more or less core roster. The point about talent leaving the team in relation of a downward trajectory, it seems to me, is a different matter entirely. That it seems to me is more about management's inability to compensate for those losses, rather than any representation of the teams contracted talent. However, only an idiot would argue that the Tigers haven't lost talent since 2014 in terms of starting pitching. I mean a playoff rotation of Verlander, price, Scherzer, and Sanchez( should have been starting even if it was on limited pitch count) , is certainly better than anything the Tigers are going to have any time soon.
But, last year, before the sell off, and this coming year I think they have a better offense than they've had in years.
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