Tigers sign SP Mike Pelfry and release him 3/30/2017

[sggatecl]

No , not a fact . Your opinion . I was challenging the fact that you and others seem to feel me are on some downward path to complete destruction .

Quite possibly the most hypocritical and/or ironic thing I've seen on these boards.

That word 'fact' you keep using, I don't think it means what you think it means.

 

[nsonnett14]

Quite possibly the most hypocritical and/or ironic thing I've seen on these boards.

That word 'fact' you keep using, I don't think it means what you think it means.

Umm , no not sure YOU know what the word fact means . Did YOU not say we are on a downward swing ? So if you did say that , and you did , that would make that a FACT . Durrr


Keep reaching pal , im here all night .

 

[sggatecl]

Umm , no not sure YOU know what the word fact means . Did YOU not say we are on a downward swing ? So if you did say that , and you did , that would make that a FACT . Durrr

Downward trajectory =! 'Downward path to complete destruction. Keep twisting my words though you putz. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Keep reaching pal , im here all night .

Coming from the guy that went on a giant hissy fit calling everyone with high post counts losers? More irony. You're a trip.

I however won't be here all night because you are a clear waste of my time. Enjoy your night on the internet dude. :cheers:

 

[nsonnett14]

I'm a waste of your time because i dont blindly follow or think what you have to say ? That makes sense haha . I had one of the highest post counts on the espn boards , i dont know what that even has to do with anything lol .

So now you are making fun of me , for being on the internet ? Gotcha , but thats not hypocritical is it ?

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

I don't like Buster Olney and probably 95% of all the media/reporters out there, especially at espn.
They are good for getting the first bit of info on a trade or something, like 'The nose of LaMancha' Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal who blocked me on twitter lol.
Their opinions on players is ok, because everyone has the ability to look up a player's stats, what they say about other stuff is just an opinion, and everyone has one.

Yea we all have our spins and amount of value we put behind various statistics out there (which makes baseball a great sport to discuss) but I think the lack of a title has a lot of fans overly critical to the point of being obtuse.

Was I super frustrated with the playoff loss to the Orioles? Absolutely. Was last season a disaster? Yes.

All that said a little optimism is nice. I'm not asking for sunshine out of the board's collective ass but the rainy day stuff is a little over the top.

oh boo hoo we have an owner willing to spend to get free agents. Woe is me!

Let's see how well the Pirates do to hold onto their talent for example. Think those fans wouldn't trade for Illitch? I get he's on the "way out" but I'm going to try and enjoy baseball. We only get so many seasons in our own lifetimes.

 

[kalinecountry]

Yea we all have our spins and amount of value we put behind various statistics out there (which makes baseball a great sport to discuss) but I think the lack of a title has a lot of fans overly critical to the point of being obtuse.

Was I super frustrated with the playoff loss to the Orioles? Absolutely. Was last season a disaster? Yes.

All that said a little optimism is nice. I'm not asking for sunshine out of the board's collective ass but the rainy day stuff is a little over the top.

oh boo hoo we have an owner willing to spend to get free agents. Woe is me!

Let's see how well the Pirates do to hold onto their talent for example. Think those fans wouldn't trade for Illitch? I get he's on the "way out" but I'm going to try and enjoy baseball. We only get so many seasons in our own lifetimes.

Right JimmyGank.

All these years I've been a lifetime Tigers fan and I have celebrated only two World Series Championships. A few here have as well, some younger only the 1984 Champion Tigers, and still some others who are younger have yet to celebrate any Tigers Championship.
Whatever they do, it's either good, bad, or too much $$, or wrong player.
Players Splits come into play for sure, It's alot better than the 2 down eras that sucked after Kaline retired in 74, and then after the 84 team got old and old man Ilitch was pouring more $$ into the RedWings, The 1990's to 2003 was a terrible time to be a Tigers fan, so were the 1950's to that 1961 season, and then more waiting to 1967 and eventually 1968.
I think some of the frustration and arguing wouldn't be as hotly debated if the Tigers had Won since 2006.
A couple of years ago 2013 would have been great, but for the bullpen. Frustration with the stars and scrubs. Winning makes it better, and the "fall" doesn't hurt as much.
We put every player under a microscope, for getting too old, or hurt, or making too much $$. Terrible defense, weak bench, suckass bullpen, on and on. I wrote awhile back about WAR costing iirc 9/10 Million per. It's where the salaries are going, which is why I think in a year or two the 'ceiling' will jump from 189 Million to say 200 Million for a round figure. Would it help if they drafted better, absolutely. I do think overall, Al Avila has had a good offseason in filling out the bullpen, getting a good starter, and an only 28 year old LF'er entering his prime years. I understand the fear of a TJ survivor getting a 100 Million contract. Maybe if they didn't sign him, some would be saying, we didn't get a good pitcher, or if they had to sign one of the other FA pitchers it would have cost upwards of another 80/100n Million more. Ilitch 'finally' went over the luxury tax threshold. I wish it had been done 3 years ago and improved the bullpen back then instead of now.
No matter what, not everybody is on the same page, all you have to do is look at the frustration on the Lion's board, that's a nearly 60 years of frustration,
About Pelfrey, his velocity iirc jumped last season, would I have wanted some other pitcher, yes. But looking at Fister's numbers and splits, his velocity and numbers have gone down, so imo buyer beware.
If they did one more thing, Tyler Clippard would help, but I think the rest of the bullpen last 1 or 2 spots will be filled by a rookie. Remember Zoom? Talent wins out to be on the 25 man roster.

 

[JackCade]

My original quote: "The Tigers have been on a downward trajectory for a few years now..."

Why would I include seasons from 4-5 years ago when I said the LAST FEW years?? It's not like a skipped over a year in between.

You're the only one being over dramatic with the "major downward spiral" bullshit. I said simply that they've been on a downward trajectory over the last few years and despite the many excuses I'm sure you have, it's a fact.

As far as the farm system goes...yes, they definitely added some young pieces in the last 12 months. But how can you expect people to be excited about that when this organization has shown zero interest in developing their own talent to play on the MLB roster? Sure, trading away prospects for that last piece to push in the post season is completely understandable. But the Tigers have been more than one piece away since 2012, some might argue longer than that.

But that "decline" has been the result of a variety of things: New Skipper, perhaps?
Miggy's nagging injuries.
JV's injury and surgery

I don't think that marks a downward spiral, but just a string of bad luck injuries.

If JV hadn't tore his core, if Miggy had not had one injury after another for the past few years, and if V-Mart hadn't hurt himself the Tigers might have had a Series success.

The suggestion behind a downward spiral or slope, etc. is that there is a predictable cause and effect relationship, but that isn't the case.
(Other than maybe V-Mart.)

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

Right JimmyGank.

All these years I've been a lifetime Tigers fan and I have celebrated only two World Series Championships. A few here have as well, some younger only the 1984 Champion Tigers, and still some others who are younger have yet to celebrate any Tigers Championship.
Whatever they do, it's either good, bad, or too much $$, or wrong player.
Players Splits come into play for sure, It's alot better than the 2 down eras that sucked after Kaline retired in 74, and then after the 84 team got old and old man Ilitch was pouring more $$ into the RedWings, The 1990's to 2003 was a terrible time to be a Tigers fan, so were the 1950's to that 1961 season, and then more waiting to 1967 and eventually 1968.
I think some of the frustration and arguing wouldn't be as hotly debated if the Tigers had Won since 2006.
A couple of years ago 2013 would have been great, but for the bullpen. Frustration with the stars and scrubs. Winning makes it better, and the "fall" doesn't hurt as much.
We put every player under a microscope, for getting too old, or hurt, or making too much $$. Terrible defense, weak bench, suckass bullpen, on and on. I wrote awhile back about WAR costing iirc 9/10 Million per. It's where the salaries are going, which is why I think in a year or two the 'ceiling' will jump from 189 Million to say 200 Million for a round figure. Would it help if they drafted better, absolutely. I do think overall, Al Avila has had a good offseason in filling out the bullpen, getting a good starter, and an only 28 year old LF'er entering his prime years. I understand the fear of a TJ survivor getting a 100 Million contract. Maybe if they didn't sign him, some would be saying, we didn't get a good pitcher, or if they had to sign one of the other FA pitchers it would have cost upwards of another 80/100n Million more. Ilitch 'finally' went over the luxury tax threshold. I wish it had been done 3 years ago and improved the bullpen back then instead of now.
No matter what, not everybody is on the same page, all you have to do is look at the frustration on the Lion's board, that's a nearly 60 years of frustration,
About Pelfrey, his velocity iirc jumped last season, would I have wanted some other pitcher, yes. But looking at Fister's numbers and splits, his velocity and numbers have gone down, so imo buyer beware.
If they did one more thing, Tyler Clippard would help, but I think the rest of the bullpen last 1 or 2 spots will be filled by a rookie. Remember Zoom? Talent wins out to be on the 25 man roster.

Don't get me wrong I think Pelfrey is a not so good signing but with the way free agents go.....it's gotten way out of hand. For nostalgia would I have rather had Fister? Sure.

I think having grown up as a kid and young man with those 90's Tigers I have a lot more appreciation for the now. Someone like yourself having lived through the 68 series maybe you have higher expectations lol. What I know for sure is the last decade (crazy to think it's been 10 years since 06) has been the best time I have had with my tigers in my lifetime and if some of the naysayers (the anti Leyland crowd for example) had their way over the years maybe we don't get anywhere near that. Remember how much of a risk the Magglio signing was? He was coming off all sorts of injuries. You never know frankly.

What I do know is we are at least a competitive franchise. Unlike the Lions (and the NFL is a different animal) the Tigers have done a fair amount of winning of late.

 

[sggatecl]

But that "decline" has been the result of a variety of things: New Skipper, perhaps?
Miggy's nagging injuries.
JV's injury and surgery

I don't think that marks a downward spiral, but just a string of bad luck injuries.

If JV hadn't tore his core, if Miggy had not had one injury after another for the past few years, and if V-Mart hadn't hurt himself the Tigers might have had a Series success.

The suggestion behind a downward spiral or slope, etc. is that there is a predictable cause and effect relationship, but that isn't the case.
(Other than maybe V-Mart.)

Well if it's just been a string of bad luck I look forward to a World Series appearance this year. Should be fun!

 

[JackCade]

Well if it's just been a string of bad luck I look forward to a World Series appearance this year. Should be fun!

First, it is baseball, as we all know, it doesn't work that way. But if healthy, they will probably tear it up.

But, you are the one claiming a a downward spiral, what are you basing that on, other than win/loss? Is there some indications that performance has declined as a result of something other than injuries?

A smoking gun on this would be some stat that shows how often players are injured based on their age.

The biggest problems I see with this team over the past few years that are able to be corrected are:
Bulpen, the fact that Dombrowski trotted out basically the same bull pen two years in a row even though the first year was so bad is truly mystifying (the pen has long been a Tiger weakness under Dombrowski).

Lack of depth. When even a star goes down for a month or a season, the team should completely collapse. For the Tigers the past few years, the guys tapped to come in and help out have generally been a disappointment.

Finally, Brad Ausmus.

 

[sggatecl]

But, you are the one claiming a a downward spiral, what are you basing that on, other than win/loss? Is there some indications that performance has declined as a result of something other than injuries?

There are those words again, 'downward spiral'. Have never used them in this thread unless quoting someone else. I simply said they've been on a downward trajectory. Big difference between the two.

As far as what I base it off, results speak for themselves. But since W-L and playoff performances aren't a good indicator according to you, I would look next at how they're getting older in areas that were once strengths while not doing a good job at improving weaknesses.

A smoking gun on this would be some stat that shows how often players are injured based on their age.

Careful about using that word 'stat' around here, some people get PTSD from their 6th grade math class when using stats. Stick to the eye test.

The biggest problems I see with this team over the past few years that are able to be corrected are:
Bulpen, the fact that Dombrowski trotted out basically the same bull pen two years in a row even though the first year was so bad is truly mystifying (the pen has long been a Tiger weakness under Dombrowski).

Lack of depth. When even a star goes down for a month or a season, the team should completely collapse. For the Tigers the past few years, the guys tapped to come in and help out have generally been a disappointment.

Finally, Brad Ausmus.

2 of those 3 things weren't fixed this season. So I'm not sure why everyone is supposed to be super optimistic and thinking last season was a fluke.

 

[tomdalton22]

There are those words again, 'downward spiral'. Have never used them in this thread unless quoting someone else. I simply said they've been on a downward trajectory. Big difference between the two.

As far as what I base it off, results speak for themselves. But since W-L and playoff performances aren't a good indicator according to you, I would look next at how they're getting older in areas that were once strengths while not doing a good job at improving weaknesses.



Careful about using that word 'stat' around here, some people get PTSD from their 6th grade math class when using stats. Stick to the eye test.



2 of those 3 things weren't fixed this season. So I'm not sure why everyone is supposed to be super optimistic and thinking last season was a fluke.

Do we KNOW that the pen was fixed?

 

[sggatecl]

Do we KNOW that the pen was fixed?

Sure don't. They made an effort, I suppose that counts for something.

 

[tomdalton22]

Sure don't. They made an effort, I suppose that counts for something.

yes...I think the pen will be better, but that's because I don't think it could be any worse

 

[Thumb]

Do we KNOW that the pen was fixed?

I think the bullpen will be better, but until it actually is I'm skeptical. Remember we all though Nathan was going to fix things in the back end of the 'pen, and look how that turned out.

 

[JackCade]

Downward spiral v. Downward trajectory is mostly semantics; and probably indicates how much Nine Inch Nails one has listened to, more than anything else really.

Regarding the bullpen, no matter what, there is far greater reason to have confidence in this pen then in the past few. Francisco is still quite effective and at 34 very probably has plenty of good years left. I agree, the Tigers could have done more, and once again the bullpen has been fixed with a lot of hopefully good young players, 1 veteran who's had some recent success or limited success, and a bargain closer. Essentially what they've done, is gotten a should be good closer, a veteran arm with some recent success, and a bunch of young players "sound be good". But this year those young players have markedly good track records, and the closer has been good and continues to be good and by good we mean very very good, maybe even great.
I'll admit that I would have liked to have seen the Tigers do more, go after at least one big big name reliever, but the young pitchers they did get have more potential, it seems to me, than any of the relievers they went into 2015 with other than Soria.

The pen is improved.

It's not the best bullpen in the major leagues, but with a healthy lineup and a healthy Justin Verlander, a healthy Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmerman (who might just have a good year because he's happy to be out of whatever is wrong with the Nats), Daniel Norris (who is competitor and has the stuff to get it done), with Shane Greene, Matt Boyd, Michael fulmer, behind Pelfrey, the Tigers don't need the best bullpen in baseball, just a reliably good one.

 

[Rebbiv]

Let's me try a couple of things.

First, the bull pen. The first stat is Wlst (Wins Lost). This is the number of Wins lost to a starter who exited the game with the lead (chance to get the win) and the game was lost by the bull pen.

2011 = 5, 1st (lowest in the AL and 6 less than the next team, 14 was AL average)
2012 = 11, 6th (12 was AL average)
2013 = 13, t4th (15 was AL average)
2014 = 15, t8th (14 was AL average)
2015 = 14, t7th (14 was AL average)

The bull pen has been "average" at giving up wins over the last 2 years and "above average) over the last 5. If 14 has been the AL Average over the last 5 years and DET has averaged 14 over the last 3, how exactly have they been costing the Tigers wins if this is the case?

Next would be the next stat, Lsv (Losses Saved), this would be the games where the starter exited the game with a loss at hand, but the team came back to tie or take the lead.

2011 = 22, 2nd (18 was AL average)
2012 = 24, 1st (17 was AL average)
2013 = 16, t9th (19 was AL average)
2014 = 16, t8th (17 was AL average)
2015 = 17, 9th (18 was AL average)

The AL average has been 18 over the last 5 years and DET has average a little more than 16. But this stat isn't just about the bull pen. It also has the element of the offense coming back and scoring runs.

Offense Runs 7-9 Innings

2011 = 218, 4th (201 was AL average)
2012 = 194, t10th (201 was AL average)
2013 = 179, t12th (193 was AL average)
2014 = 231, 3rd (198 was AL average)
2015 = 190, t12th (204 was AL average)

DET's late game offense has been well below average the last 5 years or so. If you take this into account and what is actually the result of the bull pen, any change "might" mean 1-2 wins difference. Until they actually play some games, we don't even know if they even improved.


Finally, the starters. Record for starters, Quality Starts and Run Support. Given league average Run Support and league average bull pen, a team should win approximately as many games as they have Quality Starts.

2011 (95 wins) = 72-47 .605 WPCT 90 QS (t6th, 86 AL avg) 5.0 RS (4th, 4.5 AL avg)
2012 (88 wins) = 63-51 .553 WPCT 90 QS (t2nd, 81 AL avg) 4.6 RS (5th, 4.5 AL avg)
2013 (93 wins) = 76-44 .633 WPCT 108 QS (1st, 83 AL avg) 4.9 RS (2nd, 4.3 AL avg)
2014 (90 wins) = 68-55 .553 WPCT 90 QS (3rd, 83 AL avg) 4.7 RS (1st, 4.2 AL avg)
2015 (74 wins) = 47-66 .416 WPCT 72 QS (t11th, 81 AL avg) 4.3 RS (8th, 4.4 AL avg)

Number of starters with at least 29 Games Started

2011 = 4 (129 GS, or 32.3 GS avg)
2012 = 3 (96 GS, or 32.0 GS avg)
2013 = 5 (156 GS, or 31.2 GS avg)
2014 = 3 (96 GS, or 32.0 GS avg)
2015 = 1 (31 GS, or 31.0 GS avg)

2013 Starter's Career QS % through 2013

J. Verlander 266 GS 171 QS = .643
D. Fister 127 GS 77 QS = .606
A. Sanchez 173 GS 103 QS = .595
M. Scherzer 165 GS 96 QS = .582

R. Porcello 149 GS 74 QS = .497


2015 Starter's career QS with at least 12 GS in career

D. Price 213 GS 147 QS = .690
J. Verlander 318 GS 203 QS = .638
A. Sanchez 219 GS 124 QS = .566 (46 GS 21 QS .457 last 2 years)
R. Wolf 379 GS 205 QS = .541 (37 GS 12 QS .324 since 2011)
A. Simon 82 GS 42 QS = .512 (50 GS 20 QS .400 not including 2014 Career year)

S. Greene 30 GS 11 QS = .367
K. Lobstein 17 GS 6 QS = .353
M. Boyd 12 GS 4 QS = .333
D. Norris 14 GS 3 QS = .214

2016 Projected Starter's career QS with at least 12 GS in career

J. Zimmermann 178 GS 115 QS = .646 (153 GS 107 QS .699 last 5 years)
J. Verlander 318 GS 203 QS = .638

A. Sanchez 219 GS 124 QS = .566

M. Pelfrey 213 GS 98 QS = .460 (100 GS 40 QS .400)
S. Greene 30 GS 11 QS = .367
M. Boyd 12 GS 4 QS = .333
D. Norris 14 GS 3 QS = .214


Last 5 years

D. Price 158 GS 112 QS .709
J. Verlander 153 GS 107 QS .699
J. Zimmermann 153 GS 107 QS .699
D. Fister 129 GS84 QS .651
M. Scherzer 163 GS 106 QS .650

A. Sanchez 138 GS 82 QS .594
R. Porcello 150 GS 86 QS .573

M. Pelfrey 100 GS 40 QS .400
S. Greene 30 GS 11 QS = .367
M. Boyd 12 GS 4 QS = .333
D. Norris 14 GS 3 QS = .214

Since 2013, we have regressed in the ability to have Quality Starts. This impacts the team in multiple forms. Quality Starts means the starters are keeping us in the games and less need to access the bull pen early. We all know a tired bull pen is less effective. Pelfrey + D. Norris/S. Greene/M. Boyd are at least 12-14 QS less than Porcello/Fister combo. I don't see that improving much. Heck, by himself, Pelfrey is at least 5 less QS (wins) by himself.

I really haven't gone into the offense and how it really hasn't improved.

Here is a link about age and injuries:

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

[JackCade]

I think the bullpen will be better, but until it actually is I'm skeptical. Remember we all though Nathan was going to fix things in the back end of the 'pen, and look how that turned out.

Speak for yourself, I thought Nathan was a bad idea from the start, and didn't think much of the rest of the bullpen any of the past few years.

 

[tomdalton22]

Downward spiral v. Downward trajectory is mostly semantics; and probably indicates how much Nine Inch Nails one has listened to, more than anything else really.

Regarding the bullpen, no matter what, there is far greater reason to have confidence in this pen then in the past few. Francisco is still quite effective and at 34 very probably has plenty of good years left. I agree, the Tigers could have done more, and once again the bullpen has been fixed with a lot of hopefully good young players, 1 veteran who's had some recent success or limited success, and a bargain closer. Essentially what they've done, is gotten a should be good closer, a veteran arm with some recent success, and a bunch of young players "sound be good". But this year those young players have markedly good track records, and the closer has been good and continues to be good and by good we mean very very good, maybe even great.
I'll admit that I would have liked to have seen the Tigers do more, go after at least one big big name reliever, but the young pitchers they did get have more potential, it seems to me, than any of the relievers they went into 2015 with other than Soria.

The pen is improved.

It's not the best bullpen in the major leagues, but with a healthy lineup and a healthy Justin Verlander, a healthy Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmerman (who might just have a good year because he's happy to be out of whatever is wrong with the Nats), Daniel Norris (who is competitor and has the stuff to get it done), with Shane Greene, Matt Boyd, Michael fulmer, behind Pelfrey, the Tigers don't need the best bullpen in baseball, just a reliably good one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5Fgp-KihIA

 

[Thumb]

Speak for yourself, I thought Nathan was a bad idea from the start, and didn't think much of the rest of the bullpen any of the past few years.

I wasn't speaking for you, you weren't even here when we signed him.