Tigers sign SP Mike Pelfry and release him 3/30/2017

[JackCade]

and you certainly like to post numbers and be right.

What is your point?

 

[sggatecl]

and you certainly like to post numbers and be right.

What is your point?

Statistics in a baseball discussion?!

 

[JackCade]

Them betting on 3 stars to all produce late into their 30's is a terrible bet!

Hard to argue with that. Although, without V-Mart (which was a Mike Ilitch I'm rich I'll throw away millions on a player I really like if I want), JV and Miggy make a bit more sense. JV had been a rookie, Ilitch was paying him for all those years of killing it for (In MLB salary terms) nothing. Miggy is one of the best living hitters, their value to the franchise is pretty difficult to measure. I think Miggy will have some good years coming up, he's had some niggling injuries (and I saw a few articles lately talking about how older players are continuing to have success).

So having a great hitter for years and years and having a solid ace JV for years and years is good for developing a deep fan base (and I'm someone who firmly believes he is going to be a top tier pitcher until he retires, his power is too easy and will be fully back this year, he is too competitive and hard working not to be).

How many Tigers' fans under 15 have been following Miggy and JV almost their whole lives? You don't get that without spending big money, and you don't get that in quite the same way without signing guys who are the best of the best (and I again am someone who think JV's best years are actually ahead of him not behind him--obviously, that is "crazy" but I believe it (he is going to get his full power back in 2016, but he has learned to pitch without it, this will make him better than he was, he'll still blow by guys at 100-102 late in games but have the superior command and finesse he's had to learn to develop early because of the injuries): disagree or not, but that is what I believe as a fan).

 

[JackCade]

Statistics in a baseball discussion?!

Love that gif.

My point back would be that numbers are not always facts. They are often just data points. Facts are a hybrid of both some amount of pontificate and data.

That said, numbers are not the only form of data point.

Why couldn't Pelfrey's contract have had incentives? Do the Tigers just not do those sorts of contracts?

 

[nsonnett14]

If he hits his incentives and does get the $12 Mil it means he performed like he can, a solid #2. And at $12 Mil, that would be a bargain.

FYI...if you consider Fister a "back end guy", then Pelfrey must be "inside the anus guy".

I dont know what the incentives are , did they say anywhere ? Before we can determine how good he would be if he hits the incenties , we have to know what they are .

This s from that article .... " Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh."

Hes a 4 or 5 at this point of his career , with the chance of being a 3 if he performs well .

 

[sggatecl]

Love that gif.

My point back would be that numbers are not always facts. They are often just data points. Facts are a hybrid of both some amount of pontificate and data.

That said, numbers are not the only form of data point.

Why couldn't Pelfrey's contract have had incentives. Do the Tigers just not do those sorts of contracts?

Go ask Buster Olney! :cheers:

I kid, I kid.

While I would agree that numbers =! facts depending on the context, I will also say that I'll take data points, statistics, and the like over the 'eye test' 99.5% of the time.

Rebbiv's post was a pretty clear indication that a lot of Fister's troubles came with what catcher he was using. Until I see something that tells me otherwise, I'm gonna go with that example.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Those gif's of yours always make me laugh.

 

[Thumb]

I think we are being trolled.

It's the only explanation I can wrap my head around at the moment.

 

[Rebbiv]

I dont know what the incentives are , did they say anywhere ? Before we can determine how good he would be if he hits the incenties , we have to know what they are .

This s from that article .... " Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh."

Hes a 4 or 5 at this point of his career , with the chance of being a 3 if he performs well .

Ranking a starter relative to their team is fruitless. For instance, in 2014, you had Scherzer, Price, Verlander and Sanchez starting for DET. By this rationale, at least one of these would be classified as a #4 (Porcello being the #5), despite the fact all of their numbers for that 3-year range are clearly those of #1-2 starters.

30 MLB starters x 5 starters per team = 150 MLB starters

1-30 = #1
31-60 = #2
61-90 = #3
91-120 = #4
121-150 = #5

150 starters qualify with 130 IP Away over the last 3 years

wOBA
5. M. Scherzer .265
14. D. Price .281
16. D. Smyly .282

41. S. Feldman .304
43. C. McHugh .304
45. J. Verlander .305
57. A. Sanchez .310

68. J. Zimmermann .314
70. D. Keuchel .315
76. R. Porcello .320
85. A. Simon .323

107. D. Fister .332

133. E. Jackson .344
145. M. Pelfrey .361


xFIP
8. M. Scherzer 2.95
10. D. Price 3.06
20. D. Keuchel 3.27
25. J. Zimmermann 3.39
26. D. Smyly 3.40
30. A. Sanchez 3.45

34. J. Verlander 3.55
48. R. Porcello 3.68
50. C. McHugh 3.69

83. E. Jackson 4.02
86. D. Fister 4.05
88. S. Feldman 4.07


146. A. Simon 4.65
147. M. Pelfrey 4.73


WHIP
3. M. Scherzer 1.02
7. D. Price 1.06
17. D. Smyly 1.13
27. J. Zimmermann 1.18

53. J. Verlander 1.25
56. S. Feldman 1.26
60. D. Keuchel 1.27

64. C. McHugh 1.27
65. R. Porcello 1.27
66. A. Sanchez 1.28
87. A. Simon 1.33

91. D. Fister 1.34

128. E. Jackson 1.44
149. M. Pelfrey 1.61


OPP BAVG
2. M. Scherzer .211
14. D. Smyly .226
16. D. Price .228

47. S. Feldman .243

67. J. Verlander .251
68. A. Simon .251
77. C. McHugh .254
80. A. Sanchez .255

97. J. Zimmermann .260
109. R. Porcello .267
112. D. Keuchel .269
120. E. Jackson .272

135. D. Fister .279
149. M. Pelfrey .311


SO/BB Rate
3. J. Zimmermann 5.60
6. D. Price 5.14
7. M. Scherzer 5.11
23. D. Smyly 3.72
29. A. Sanchez 3.45

32. J. Verlander 3.42
38. D. Keuchel 3.38
46. R. Porcello 3.10
52. C. McHugh 3.02
53. D. Fister 3.02


112. S. Feldman 2.11
119. E. Jackson 2.06

141. A. Simon 1.73
142. M. Pelfrey 1.68


TOTAL (5 category rankings/5)

5.0 M. Scherzer
10.6 D. Price
19.2 D. Smyly

44.0 J. Zimmermann
46.2 J. Verlander
48.4 A. Sanchez
57.2 C. McHugh
60.0 D. Keuchel

68.8 R. Porcello
68.8 S. Feldman

94.4 D. Fister
105.4 A. Simon
116.6 E. Jackson

146.6 M. Pelfrey

[FONT=&quot]The difference between Justin Verlander and Doug Fister is relatively closer th[FONT=&quot]an the[/FONT] same difference between Doug Fister and Mike Pelfrey. That is how bad Mike Pelfrey has been in relationship to all the other qualified starters. [/FONT]

 

[nsonnett14]

Fister just simply isnt as good as people make him out to be . Is he a decent pitcher , sure .

Is he a top of the rotation guy ? Not even close , his career numbers suggest he is a mediocre pitcher and nothing more .

 

[JackCade]

Go ask Buster Olney! :cheers:

I kid, I kid.

While I would agree that numbers =! facts depending on the context, I will also say that I'll take data points, statistics, and the like over the 'eye test' 99.5% of the time.

Rebbiv's post was a pretty clear indication that a lot of Fister's troubles came with what catcher he was using. Until I see something that tells me otherwise, I'm gonna go with that example.

Actually, THAT would be something Olney could talk about. But the financial condition of a company that is worth nearly $1.5billion, come on. Being a baseball reporter doesn't mean you are qualified to make that sort of assessment.

 

[Thumb]

Actually, THAT would be something Olney could talk about. But the financial condition of a company that is worth nearly $1.5billion, come on. Being a baseball reporter doesn't mean you are qualified to make that sort of assessment.

And it also doesn't mean he isn't qualified. You don't know what the extent of his qualifications are, as people have pointed out, just because his job is a reporter/analyst on MLB does not mean he doesn't have other qualifications.

Of course, as many people have tied to point this out before, I'm sure it will be lost on you.

 

[JackCade]

And it also doesn't mean he isn't qualified. You don't know what the extent of his qualifications are, as people have pointed out, just because his job is a reporter/analyst on MLB does not mean he doesn't have other qualifications.

Of course, as many people have tied to point this out before, I'm sure it will be lost on you.

Well, first, thanks for the insult to my intelligence and right back at you.

You're right, Buster Olney could, in his free time, have worked as an intern in a MLB front offices until he earned a place at the executive level, he also might have a hobby of performing organ transplants, but I doubt it.

As I said, if he had the competence to make that judgement on his own without expert sources as support he'd probably be doing something other than just being a baseball reporter (aka a sort of entertainment reporter).

Since his history doesn't seem to contain a 10+ year gap during which he gained such expertise, I'm probably right about his qualifications.

 

[JackCade]

And it also doesn't mean he isn't qualified. You don't know what the extent of his qualifications are, as people have pointed out, just because his job is a reporter/analyst on MLB does not mean he doesn't have other qualifications.

Of course, as many people have tied to point this out before, I'm sure it will be lost on you.

Well, first, thanks fire the insult to my intelligence and right back at you.

You're right, Buster Olney could, in his free time, have worked as an intern in MLB front offices, until he earned a place at the executive level, he also might have a hobby of performing organ transplants, but I doubt it.

As I said, if he had the competence to make that judgement on his own workout expert sources he'd probably doing something other than being just a baseball reporter (aka a sort of entertainment reporter).

Since his history doesn't seem to contain a 10+ year gap during which he gained such expertise then he probably doesn't have it.

Evaluating the Tigers' financial condition with any credibility is complicated and requires access to information probably less than a dozen people have access to.

 

[tomdalton22]

Well, first, thanks for the insult to my intelligence and right back at you.

You're right, Buster Olney could, in his free time, have worked as an intern in a MLB front offices until he earned a place at the executive level, he also might have a hobby of performing organ transplants, but I doubt it.

As I said, if he had the competence to make that judgement on his own without expert sources as support he'd probably be doing something other than just being a baseball reporter (aka a sort of entertainment reporter).

Since his history doesn't seem to contain a 10+ year gap during which he gained such expertise, I'm probably right about his qualifications.

so now you need to work in an MLB front office to understand how the financial side of baseball works? He is a reporter. He has contacts including agents, GM's and I'm sure he has spoken with owners. The financial side of baseball is a huge deal...reporters need to understand how it works.

I'm probably right with my opinion that he knows significantly more about the financial side of MLB than you do.

 

[JackCade]

Right, so reporting works by citing sources and drawing inferences from what they say. But he needs to cite experts (like a former GM or two, a few people who worked in front offices (and maybe he talked to them but didn't cite them)) who say, "yes, teams in Detroit's situation often struggle to maintain their competitive edge. And, as an expert, I know that Detroit's $1,125,000,000 business is in trouble in the next couple of years."
The expert could then answer the question of, "why? and how?" with a detailed analysis that would likely contain information that only those literate in the nomenclature of the discipline would fully understand.

Now, Mike Ilitch and Al Avila are also such an expert and would probably disagree and be able to prove it (or not) in a debate with that expert. But in no situation does Buster Olney (in all likelihood) have the back ground knowledge, access to the appropriate data, or years of experience to make the judgements that those to experts would make during such a debate.

That is how expertise works.

Like, I could walk up and tell Olney that he is wrong about Upton's value and he could literally just respond with, "well, I've been reporting on baseball since the 80s and you are wrong."

To which I would say, "yeah, ..." and if I couldn't cite some facts or an expert to match Olney's expertise I would fail (as I would) and finish with, "... well, maybe you are right, but I still disagree, I think."

Yes, one can have knowledge in a general way about things and form opinions, but in the face of expertise, opinions are puffs of smoke. People who cling to opinions in the face of expertise are fools. Like, I like soda, I think it is good for me, it makes me feel good. Then a doctor tells me that it is bad for me and causing me to develop diabetes, who is right? Obviously the doctor.
(For the record, I don't drink soda.)

Further, the Tigers financial position relative to their value, up coming TV contracts, multi-million dollar player contracts and 100s of other contracts, facilities cost, facilities revenue, vending sales, parking sales, other events at the park, PR and advertising value, the value of minor league clubs, etc., etc., etc. the interrelationship of the organization with the $5bil+ worth of other Ilitch holdings is all very complicated and mostly beyond the ken of non-specialists; although, maybe I am completely wrong, not being such an expert.

We're all, obviously and of course, able to form our opinions about anything (including the Tigers financial position); as I have done about Olney in spite of your effort to shout me down. My point here is that Olney's opinion (informed as it is) is still not the testimony of an expert on the subject and should not be taken as such. Likewise, we should recognize the limits of our own opinions. Perhaps I am wrong: Perhaps Olney is an expert, perhaps such expertise is not needed and the business side of a baseball team is simple, perhaps I'm having a slow stroke and loosing my mind as I write this, perhaps I am a computer bot, perhaps you are, perhaps this is all an illusion, a dream we are all having while we sleep or after someone slipped us some acid... Who really knows anything? Even experts can be wrong, but in the face of non-experts they will tend to be more often right.

EDIT: Finally, I would not argue that I know more about baseball finances than Olney, but I might know more about business than he does, but your ad hominem fallacy DOES NOT attend to my claims. You do not know me. You do not know what I know. I honestly think that I am close (and so are you and so are many posters here and elsewhere, most of you are even closer than I) to being able to argue about the continued viability of the Tigers going forward as not quite equals but near equals with Buster Onley's shallow treatment of the topic in this article.
That is because his approach there is fairly cursory--the man has editors, deadlines, etc. every article can't win the Pulitzer.

HOWEVER!!!!!!! If he actually had the time and inclination to focus on the Tigers and make some phone calls, do some digging, talk to some sources, etc. then that would be entirely DIFFERENT, then he could crush me (or you or really any of us non-professional baseball people). I am not (and I'm assuming you aren't) a professional baseball reporter with 26 years of connections: I don't have sources, inside info, etc (also, as I've mentioned, maybe he did talk to people, but didn't name them, in that case I'm obviously WRONG about his argument's viability but NOT his credibility as a source of that sort of info, at least for me, maybe you feel that because he is ESPN's Buster Olney his word is good enough).

Let me ask you this, what bothers you about my post? Do you agree with Olney? Do you like Buster and want to defend him? Do you dislike my roughing up a sports reporter and dismissing them for simply entertainment reporters (which is what they are)? Do you dislike my "smug" confidence (who the heck do I think I am)? What has made you so determined to protect Buster Olney's ability to write as if he were a MLB front office executive instead of just a sports reporter?

 

[Thumb]

Well, first, thanks for the insult to my intelligence and right back at you.

You're right, Buster Olney could, in his free time, have worked as an intern in a MLB front offices until he earned a place at the executive level, he also might have a hobby of performing organ transplants, but I doubt it.

As I said, if he had the competence to make that judgement on his own without expert sources as support he'd probably be doing something other than just being a baseball reporter (aka a sort of entertainment reporter).

Since his history doesn't seem to contain a 10+ year gap during which he gained such expertise, I'm probably right about his qualifications.

First off, I didn't insult your intelligence anywhere in that post.

Second, you say "just a baseball reporter" like that's a shitty job, or that he's just one of the many. It's not, and he's one of the best.

Third, It's so ironic that that your whole argument against him knowing anything about the business side of a baseball franchise is based on your assumptions of his knowledge, while simultaneously criticizing him for making assumptions in the articles he writes.

 

[JackCade]

First off, I didn't insult your intelligence anywhere in that post.

Second, you say "just a baseball reporter" like that's a shitty job, or that he's just one of the many. It's not, and he's one of the best.

Third, It's so ironic that that your whole argument against him knowing anything about the business side of a baseball franchise is based on your assumptions of his knowledge, while simultaneously criticizing him for making assumptions in the articles he writes.

"Of course, as many people have tied to point this out before, I'm sure it will be lost on you."
That is an insult. But I'm sure that fact will be lost on you.

See?

Second, but my assumption about his life as a public figure who is actually easy to research in a matter of a minute or two is not the same kind of assumptions that he is making.

Look, Thumb, if he had that kind of expertise, it'd be a big deal. It'd be like he was both a sports reporter and a heart doctor or something.

This is a stupid conversation, you and all of you know I'm right.

Olney doesn't have an MBA or MBF neither is he an ex-MLB executive, he didn't cite sources with special knowledge of either MLB team's finances or the Tigers' in particular. He is a baseball reporter, as in the game of baseball, he is not an expert on everything baseball related including corporate finance, therefore, I am right, you are wrong get over it.

Again, attend to my argument and stop trying to attack me, or STFU already.

Name ONE thing that tells you that Olney is any more qualified than any of us to make a judgement about the finances of billion dollar business.
The suggestion that because he is a baseball writer and sports talking head he can do that with credibility without citing expert and sources is just freaking absurd.

It is an insult to the notion of expertise. It is an insult to every GM in baseball, every executive, every owner. But again, it isn't that big a deal, he is entertaining baseball fans during the off season, he is doing his part.

He was offering his take/opinion, which is not worth much in this case, it is, admittedly, worth more than mine (though not to me), but not really valid. But who knows, maybe your right, maybe in his free time he has been taking night classes at CUNY.

The financial side of baseball, the front office side, is a whole different world in many ways, from what happens on the field. Olney knows the field, as a reporter--players know it better, ditto the finances.

 

[JackCade]

Before anyone replies to me again on this question of Buster Olney's application to be the GM of _____ MLB team.

I give up, you're right I'm wrong. You win, I quit.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

Jack I don't stop on here as much as I used to because the board has become overwhelmingly negative. If you are not of the opinion that everything the Tigers do is wrong (seemingly) then you will face criticism or seek being a "homer" (which face it we all are.)

The outpouring of negativity regarding the Upton signing, looking back through the comments on Cespedes etc...is all I really need to see. Ultimately our team's primary objective is winning first and while some decisions are questionable I can at least get behind that.

For years people wanted Leyland gone and see what the end result was of that?