Trade Rumors Castellanos to Cubs, Greene to Braves - signs with the Reds now Phillies

[dale675]

Boyd is a 28-year old starter with not much of a track record. He is smack dab in the middle of his prime. Aside from starting red hot, his last 6 starts have been horrendous. I am not sure his value could get much higher if you don't trade him. His value could tank (ala 2019 Castellanos). Look at Fulmer. Avilla wanted too much for him, when he could have done a a deal last year. Castellanos' peak value was last year. Now, in his walk year, his value probably couldn't be much lower. Who wants a Okay bat, not elite, and no defense player? He is slightly better the the average AL DH (average AL DH OPS = .782, Miggy is .784 OPS as DH).



Now, back to Boyd. We are not talking about a 23-year old with 3 more years of control entering his peak years. We have a 28-year old, who would be out of his peak years. Players have "outliers" in their careers. Darin Erstad's .355 BAVG to name one. Who's to say that 2019 isn't Boyd's outlier? If a team wants to give you players, great. But asking for Torres in just plain stupid. He is primarily a SS and switched back to 2B when Gregorius returned. He is huge for a premium position.



DET Offensive OPS Rank


C = 15th
1B = 14th
2B = 14th
SS = 13th
3B = 13th
LF = 14th
CF = 10th
RF = 12th
DH = 11th

I don't disagree at all that this year could be an outlier for Boyd. That is why I said holding him any longer than this off season is a risk. And holding that long may come back to bite us. Which is why Nick should have been traded before this season started. I obviously want the best return we can get for Boyd, but no chance we get Torres or another MLB "proven" guy like him. I do think we could get a high end prospect though. I am tired of seeing Detroit media and people on twitter painting Boyd to be an ace. The guy averages less than 6 innings per start. IMO to be an ace you need to be able to go deep into games. That is a huge area he lacks in. The more I look at his recent starts the more I think he needs to be traded asap.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Whatever.

Perfect response.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't disagree at all that this year could be an outlier for Boyd. That is why I said holding him any longer than this off season is a risk. And holding that long may come back to bite us. Which is why Nick should have been traded before this season started. I obviously want the best return we can get for Boyd, but no chance we get Torres or another MLB "proven" guy like him. I do think we could get a high end prospect though. I am tired of seeing Detroit media and people on twitter painting Boyd to be an ace. The guy averages less than 6 innings per start. IMO to be an ace you need to be able to go deep into games. That is a huge area he lacks in. The more I look at his recent starts the more I think he needs to be traded asap.

I think he can be if they stretch him a bit. There were time, especially the first two months he was pitching well and he gets taken out early. Add another 10 pitches to his max. Consistently get him 105-110 pitches assuming he's going well. As for the average start those are just the times. Don't know which pitchers but only one team 2018 averaged 6 innings per start, at 6.1.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think he can be if they stretch him a bit. There were time, especially the first two months he was pitching well and he gets taken out early. Add another 10 pitches to his max. Consistently get him 105-110 pitches assuming he's going well. As for the average start those are just the times. Don't know which pitchers but only one team 2018 averaged 6 innings per start, at 6.1.

maybe the team knows what they are doing. Based on the numbers, it seems like he may be getting worn out. He was stellar after his first 12 starts and pitched 6 or more innings in 10 of those 12. In his last 6 starts he has been terrible with an ERA around 6.

He was up and down last year as well. Came out of the gate great. First 2 months had an era under 3. June, 6.32 then his final 3 months his era was 4.61

If the Tigers were in "buying mode" and they gave a prospect that was top 5 in their system for Boyd...I'd be pissed. He's been good 4 months in his career and his most recent month has looked like Jordan Zimmerman.

 

[Mitchrapp]

maybe the team knows what they are doing. Based on the numbers, it seems like he may be getting worn out. He was stellar after his first 12 starts and pitched 6 or more innings in 10 of those 12. In his last 6 starts he has been terrible with an ERA around 6.

He was up and down last year as well. Came out of the gate great. First 2 months had an era under 3. June, 6.32 then his final 3 months his era was 4.61

If the Tigers were in "buying mode" and they gave a prospect that was top 5 in their system for Boyd...I'd be pissed. He's been good 4 months in his career and his most recent month has looked like Jordan Zimmerman.

Possibly but it hasn't changed much over the season. I always thought how will someone pitch 7 innings, 105-110 pitches - if they never get the chance to throw that much. As far as "maybe they know what they're doing" it's the Tigers. And like I mentioned not many average 6 innings or more these days. Its a case by case. just think he gets babied a bit. I think the Jordan Zimmerman reference might be a bit much.

As far as top 5, depends on the team. I might not either but I remember when Avila didn't start high and we got junk. I just want, and we should get more than just ml fodder.

 

[dale675]

I was curious about the average start length. I can't post it without it being a wall of text. Hopefully this works.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...tdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=22,d

24 starters average 6 or more innings per start(min 15 starts). Boyd just under 6. Boyd ranked 26th in that stat. I would have guessed worse. He averages 97.4 pitches per start.


Max Scherzer 6.79
Justin Verlander 6.64
Clayton Kershaw 6.60
Trevor Bauer 6.60
Mike Minor 6.50
Jose Berrios 6.50
Stephen Strasburg 6.45
Zack Greinke 6.42
Hyun-Jin Ryu 6.41
Lance Lynn 6.39
German Marquez 6.36
Mike Leake 6.34
Patrick Corbin 6.28
Zack Wheeler 6.26
Noah Syndergaard 6.19
Yonny Chirinos 6.18
Walker Buehler 6.12
Shane Bieber 6.12
Gerrit Cole 6.12
Jacob deGrom 6.11
Frankie Montas 6.00
Brandon Woodruff 6.00
Jake Arrieta 6.00
Jon Gray 5.96
Sandy Alcantara 5.95
Matthew Boyd 5.94
Chris Sale 5.94
Kyle Hendricks 5.94
Mike Soroka 5.94

 

[nsonnett14]

Boyd’s 13 strikeouts on Thursday tied him for the most on July 4 in the live-ball era, joining Billy O'Dell, Craig Swan, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling. He also became the first pitcher in the live-ball era with 13 strikeouts and zero walks in an outing of six innings or fewer

Yea , he's been an absolute disaster since his hot start ....morons

 

[Mitchrapp]

I was curious about the average start length. I can't post it without it being a wall of text. Hopefully this works.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...tdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=22,d

24 starters average 6 or more innings per start(min 15 starts). Boyd just under 6. Boyd ranked 26th in that stat. I would have guessed worse. He averages 97.4 pitches per start.


Max Scherzer 6.79
Justin Verlander 6.64
Clayton Kershaw 6.60
Trevor Bauer 6.60
Mike Minor 6.50
Jose Berrios 6.50
Stephen Strasburg 6.45
Zack Greinke 6.42
Hyun-Jin Ryu 6.41
Lance Lynn 6.39
German Marquez 6.36
Mike Leake 6.34
Patrick Corbin 6.28
Zack Wheeler 6.26
Noah Syndergaard 6.19
Yonny Chirinos 6.18
Walker Buehler 6.12
Shane Bieber 6.12
Gerrit Cole 6.12
Jacob deGrom 6.11
Frankie Montas 6.00
Brandon Woodruff 6.00
Jake Arrieta 6.00
Jon Gray 5.96
Sandy Alcantara 5.95
Matthew Boyd 5.94
Chris Sale 5.94
Kyle Hendricks 5.94
Mike Soroka 5.94

That's the era. Try to get to the 7th inning guy. Take the not so good starts and 6 or less is what you get. We had the top 2

 

[gotime909]

Another thing to consider about level of return for Boyd is the market. Sounds like there really isn't going to be many starting pitchers available better than him. Should increase his value even more.

 

[dale675]

Boyd?s 13 strikeouts on Thursday tied him for the most on July 4 in the live-ball era, joining Billy O'Dell, Craig Swan, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling. He also became the first pitcher in the live-ball era with 13 strikeouts and zero walks in an outing of six innings or fewer

Yea , he's been an absolute disaster since his hot start ....morons

Look at you cherry picking stats, who does that sound like?

5 1/3 innings of 4 run ball...who cares how he got the outs. Using your logic, that magical start is good for an ERA of 6.75. See what I did there?

Another thing to consider about level of return for Boyd is the market. Sounds like there really isn't going to be many starting pitchers available better than him. Should increase his value even more.

There are a few good rentals but not as many controllable guys. I keep seeing teams saying they are trying to stay away from rentals. All it takes is a contending team to lose their #1 or #2 starter and I feel like his value could go up a lot.

 

[tomdalton22]

Boyd?s 13 strikeouts on Thursday tied him for the most on July 4 in the live-ball era, joining Billy O'Dell, Craig Swan, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling. He also became the first pitcher in the live-ball era with 13 strikeouts and zero walks in an outing of six innings or fewer

Yea , he's been an absolute disaster since his hot start ....morons

lol...he gave up 4 runs and 9 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Great game! :clap:

 

[nsonnett14]

lol...he gave up 4 runs and 9 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Great game! :clap:

Yea 13 strikeouts , no walks and a win is a disaster !! And he still has a ERA of 3.87 on the season , man does he suck !!

 

[nsonnett14]

Look at you cherry picking stats, who does that sound like?

5 1/3 innings of 4 run ball...who cares how he got the outs. Using your logic, that magical start is good for an ERA of 6.75. See what I did there?



There are a few good rentals but not as many controllable guys. I keep seeing teams saying they are trying to stay away from rentals. All it takes is a contending team to lose their #1 or #2 starter and I feel like his value could go up a lot.

Not cherry picking at all , responding to the 2 guys who said Boyd's last 6 starts have been terrible . Simply pointing out that isn't true .

 

[nsonnett14]

So tell me how you guys can say he's been terrible in his last 6 starts .

5.1 4ER 13k's 0 WALKS win

7inn 4ER 11K'S 1 WALK loss

7inn 3ER 8k's 0 WALKS loss

5inn 3ER 9K'S 0 WALKS loss

Yea hes had a few stinkers , but these games listed are far from terrible .

 

[tomdalton22]

So tell me how you guys can say he's been terrible in his last 6 starts .

5.1 4ER 13k's 0 WALKS win

7inn 4ER 11K'S 1 WALK loss

7inn 3ER 8k's 0 WALKS loss

5inn 3ER 9K'S 0 WALKS loss

Yea hes had a few stinkers , but these games listed are far from terrible .

Maybe terrible is an overstatement...how about not good. But over his past 6 games his ERA is 6.03 and his WHIP is 1.34. It's not like he was really good for 5 and had one game where he went 3 innings with 9 earned runs.

I will admit that is K to walk ratio during that timeframe is outstanding. 54K / 5BB

 

[nsonnett14]

Maybe terrible is an overstatement...how about not good. But over his past 6 games his ERA is 6.03 and his WHIP is 1.34. It's not like he was really good for 5 and had one game where he went 3 innings with 9 earned runs.

I will admit that is K to walk ratio during that timeframe is outstanding. 54K / 5BB

Not good is an overstatement . I'm his hype man lol , the big strikeout totals and minimal walks is a huge selling point as well when teams are evaluating what's out there . I dont see any reason we can't get the same type of package the white sox got for Quintana ( a package that included Eloy Jimenez ) True Quintana had success alot longer than Boyd has had , but they could be comparable with the success Boy'd is having this year .

 

[gotime909]

I think he's been kinda unlucky with the long ball recently. He's still looked pretty dominant in the starts I've watched

 

[kalinecountry]

https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/tigers-looking-to-be-sellers-at-trade-deadline
Tigers will look to speed up rebuild at Deadline.
Tigers official site

 

[kalinecountry]

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/7...z-tampa-bay-rays-detroit-tigers-dont-do-it-al
The Rays are interested in Joe Jimenez, but trading him would be a bad idea.
It would be very hard for the Tigers to get proper value in a Jimenez trade.
BYBTB

 

[motownwebguy]

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/7...z-tampa-bay-rays-detroit-tigers-dont-do-it-al
The Rays are interested in Joe Jimenez, but trading him would be a bad idea.
It would be very hard for the Tigers to get proper value in a Jimenez trade.
BYBTB

Fans were angry with the Avila Extension.
Fan may approach going into a tirade, after Avila gets done trading the likes of Jimenez, Castellanos, Greene and Boyd for little in-return.

Little Al's greatest weakness is return value in major league trades. He really needed to add a long-time, experienced assistant GM, instead of the rookie, know-nothing David Chadd.

The two downfalls that may get Avila fired in the next two years, are Chadd's lack of brains and Avila's heavy-hand reliance on Baseball Analytics. One cannot manage a team or a game, based on numbers 0 thru 9.

If Analytics / Sabermetrics were the best answers, Bill James would either have Dombrowski's job today, or Bill would be Commisioner of MLB today.