You are dumb for using history then. Look at the 2015 roster. Each year is a new year. This roster is stacked. The coaches are good. Year 2 of the systems. Going to be another great season. 11 wins+
What are you basing stacked on?
Since you can use no prior knowledge, you can only assume every team will go 8-8.
There is no way to possibly know if this Calvin Johnson guy is any better than this Kris Durrham guy on Oakland.