2023 Off-Season Thread

[jared]

Williams is reportedly looking for 3 years and $30M. We're not the only team passing on that. And Montgomery is flat out better than Williams. I think the team has plenty of good leaders right now, seems that's a huge focus up and down the roster and Cam Sutton is that type of guy too. Montgomery was near the top of the NFL in broken tackle rate at 0.31, Williams was way behind at 0.13. So I think you're getting a back who can turn those 6 yard runs into 15 yard ones. He's also a good short yardage back, but that's the 1 area where Williams might be a bit better.

Montgomery played behind a bad O Line in Chicago and still averaged 1200 yards from scrimmage the last 4 seasons. He could grind teams down behind our O Line. And $6M per for him isn't too much IMO.

What I like about the FA signings is the Lions have untied their hands in the draft. CB is no longer a must pick need and you can take the right guy if he's there. Still wish we got a stud LB to pair with Analzone, but maybe they see an immediate starter in the draft in round 2.

I do think this shakes out to land Wilson with the 6th pick now unless Carter or Anderson are there. Can still look at CB at pick 18 or maybe the S/CB combo Branch from Bama.

Thought I read they were considering bringing Graham Glasgow back at guard, if not, maybe they look OL in round 2 or 3.

Mosely is a high risk, high reward pickup. If he's ready to go before camp, he's got a chance to be a steal. Mosely has probably been better than Cam Sutton even when he was fully healthy.

I love Williams. Great personality, hard runner, added a lot to the team. But if he's looking for 10 mil per year they were wise to move on. I know his production was great, but it was going to dip this year. The Lions had a WR tackled at the one something like 9 times last year. It was a complete outlier of a stat, and likely contributed to his huge TD numbers.

Montgomery is younger and more talented. This is a win for us.

 

[johnny2x2x]

I love Williams. Great personality, hard runner, added a lot to the team. But if he's looking for 10 mil per year they were wise to move on. I know his production was great, but it was going to dip this year. The Lions had a WR tackled at the one something like 9 times last year. It was a complete outlier of a stat, and likely contributed to his huge TD numbers.

Montgomery is younger and more talented. This is a win for us.

I think even if the price was equal, Montgomery is a better option. It's not like Montgomery is an elite Nick Chubb type talent, but he's clearly an upgrade over Williams.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think even if the price was equal, Montgomery is a better option. It's not like Montgomery is an elite Nick Chubb type talent, but he's clearly an upgrade over Williams.

Clear upgrade might be a stretch.

They both have 915 career carries. Montgomery averages 3.9 yards per carry and Williams 4.0

In 90 games Williams has 160 catches for 1191 yards (7.4 YPC) with a catch rate of 80%

In 60 career games Montgomery has 155 catches for 1240 yards (8.0 YPC) with the same 80% catch rate.

Montgomery is 2 years younger but has more carries per year.

 

[grandy]

https://nfltraderumors.co/breaking-eagles-plan-to-release-cb-darius-slay/

Eagles release Slay (June 1st designation)

 

[mhughes0021]

I'm on the side of Montgomery being a better overall back even though his numbers are almost identical. Jamaal can run over you... Montgomery with this oline has potential to be scary good.

 

[tomdalton22]

I'm on the side of Montgomery being a better overall back even though his numbers are almost identical. Jamaal can run over you... Montgomery with this oline has potential to be scary good.

I am too. I was just pointing out that the actual evidence suggests that it isn't the slam dunk that many are suggesting.

I am into fantasy football more than I am the actual outcome of the games. I don't care who signs Jamal Williams, I will be drafting Montgomery way before Williams.

 

[grandy]

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2023...ns-pick-david-montgomery-over-jamaal-williams

The grade article had some more advanced stats that help Montgomery?s case.

Yards and YPC aren?t necessarily a good measure of a RBs individual ability, so I?d want to look deeper when comparing the two.

Even if they are equivalent in ability, Montgomery is younger and probably cheaper than what Jamaal wants, that alone I consider an upgrade. Also think this gives them more flexibility with Montgomery?s versatility, I think he can adequately fill the ?Swift role? if they want to bring in a straight-line bruiser-type back in the draft.

 

[tomdalton22]

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2023...ns-pick-david-montgomery-over-jamaal-williams

The grade article had some more advanced stats that help Montgomery?s case.

Yards and YPC aren?t necessarily a good measure of a RBs individual ability, so I?d want to look deeper when comparing the two.

Even if they are equivalent in ability, Montgomery is younger and probably cheaper than what Jamaal wants, that alone I consider an upgrade. Also think this gives them more flexibility with Montgomery?s versatility, I think he can adequately fill the ?Swift role? if they want to bring in a straight-line bruiser-type back in the draft.

another analysis from an ESPN writer

This is going to sound harsh, but I don't think paying Montgomery is a particularly efficient use of resources.

Over the past four seasons, Montgomery has averaged 3.7, 4.3, 3.8 and 4.0 yards per carry, which is unremarkable. His rush yards over expectation per carry -- an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that measures performance relative to expectation based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff -- in each of those seasons has been minus-0.1, 0.5, minus-0.1, and minus-0.1. So in other words, in three of the past four seasons, he has actually managed to rush for fewer yards per carry than we would expect. And to make the point even worse, Khalil Herbert led all running backs with 100-plus carries in rush yards over expectation per carry at 1.4 last season ... on the same team.

Montgomery has some receiving production, but nothing extraordinary. He does have one strength, though. His 94% pass block win rate led all running backs with at least 30 plays with a win or a loss, though it's a small sample. Prior to last season, he had been above average but not elite in the metric. In the NFL, you can basically find Montgomery's level of rusher anywhere, and you don't need to pay for it.

 

[baitnbat]

Put williams behind Chicago's offensive line and see what you get. Montgomery is a hard runner that can make people miss. Good upgrade

 

[503]

I have a feeling that today is the start of something special in Detroit. #18, next years 1st and $200+ guaranteed will be negotiated from the Lions headquarters.

Make it happen Holmes!!!

 

[tomdalton22]

I have a feeling that today is the start of something special in Detroit. #18, next years 1st and $200+ guaranteed will be negotiated from the Lions headquarters.

Make it happen Holmes!!!

of course you are talking about your boy Lamar...maybe the most over rated QB in the league.

Since he as been in the league, the Ravens have had a top three defense 4 of the 5 years. He has one playoff win to show for it.

Career playoffs. 56% completion percentage, 3 TD, 5 INT

He rushed well, 92 yards per game.

He has missed 10 of the past 22 games that the Ravens have played.

He is not a good fit.

 

[grandy]

another analysis from an ESPN writer

This is going to sound harsh, but I don't think paying Montgomery is a particularly efficient use of resources.

Over the past four seasons, Montgomery has averaged 3.7, 4.3, 3.8 and 4.0 yards per carry, which is unremarkable. His rush yards over expectation per carry -- an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that measures performance relative to expectation based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff -- in each of those seasons has been minus-0.1, 0.5, minus-0.1, and minus-0.1. So in other words, in three of the past four seasons, he has actually managed to rush for fewer yards per carry than we would expect. And to make the point even worse, Khalil Herbert led all running backs with 100-plus carries in rush yards over expectation per carry at 1.4 last season ... on the same team.

Montgomery has some receiving production, but nothing extraordinary. He does have one strength, though. His 94% pass block win rate led all running backs with at least 30 plays with a win or a loss, though it's a small sample. Prior to last season, he had been above average but not elite in the metric. In the NFL, you can basically find Montgomery's level of rusher anywhere, and you don't need to pay for it.

I don?t see them getting an equivalent RB for much cheaper, guess that?s where I disagree with this analyst?s take. If the argument is that RB is never worth spending money on, then I might agree. Looking at RBs around Montgomery?s AAV, I don?t see the big issue, especially with contracts going up across the board.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Going to a new system isn't always easy. That could play a roll in Montgomery and how he does first year.

 

[503]

Detroits front office.

Jamaal - wants $10 mil?not in same ball park, who?s next.

Ekeler - wants more than Jamaal?s asking price. Next

Montgomery - $6mil, don?t like it but it?s half the price as the other guy. Write up the contract.

 

[grandy]

Going to a new system isn't always easy. That could play a roll in Montgomery and how he does first year.

RB is probably one of the easier transitions I would imagine. He went through two regimes, including Nagy, I?m fairly confident he can handle another transition quickly.

 

[Mitchrapp]

In two years we need a RB from Minnesota, get the trifecta.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

I have a feeling that today is the start of something special in Detroit. #18, next years 1st and $200+ guaranteed will be negotiated from the Lions headquarters.

Make it happen Holmes!!!

Is that you, Matt Millen?

 

[mhughes0021]

another analysis from an ESPN writer

This is going to sound harsh, but I don't think paying Montgomery is a particularly efficient use of resources.

Over the past four seasons, Montgomery has averaged 3.7, 4.3, 3.8 and 4.0 yards per carry, which is unremarkable. His rush yards over expectation per carry -- an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that measures performance relative to expectation based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff -- in each of those seasons has been minus-0.1, 0.5, minus-0.1, and minus-0.1. So in other words, in three of the past four seasons, he has actually managed to rush for fewer yards per carry than we would expect. And to make the point even worse, Khalil Herbert led all running backs with 100-plus carries in rush yards over expectation per carry at 1.4 last season ... on the same team.

Montgomery has some receiving production, but nothing extraordinary. He does have one strength, though. His 94% pass block win rate led all running backs with at least 30 plays with a win or a loss, though it's a small sample. Prior to last season, he had been above average but not elite in the metric. In the NFL, you can basically find Montgomery's level of rusher anywhere, and you don't need to pay for it.

I would ask that espn writer to look up some stats on Chicago's passing offense during that time frame. Oline performance, sacks allowed etc. Goff and Co passing offense with this oline...I wouldn't be surprised if Montgomery is a top 10 back. Id go as far to say top 7 back if they use him as a workhorse. The only risks to his production will be how much they use swift... and injury.

 

[tomdalton22]

I would ask that espn writer to look up some stats on Chicago's passing offense during that time frame. Oline performance, sacks allowed etc. Goff and Co passing offense with this oline...I wouldn't be surprised if Montgomery is a top 10 back. Id go as far to say top 7 back if they use him as a workhorse. The only risks to his production will be how much they use swift... and injury.

Based on how it was explained, it is taking into consideration where all 22 players are located on each running play at the point of handoff and determine if the player is above or below what should be expected from that point going forward. I'm sure those stats are flawed just like all stats are.

The other back in the Bear's offense was +1.4 last season when Montgomery was -0.1

That said, I fully expect him to perform better behind the Lions line than he did behind the Bears line.

 

[thehippo73]

In two years we need a RB from Minnesota, get the trifecta.

Dalvin Cook would look nice in Honolulu Blue