Coronainsanity

[byco42]

poor baby. that's so sad!

Not sure that TD22 was complaining about the wait at an eating establishment. I believe that he?s concerned that there?s a set of employable people who are content to live on the efforts of others rather than on their own initiative.

 

[Michchamp]

Not sure that TD22 was complaining about the wait at an eating establishment. I believe that he?s concerned that there?s a set of employable people who are content to live on the efforts of others rather than on their own initiative.

the only area of the economy that seems to be suffering from this is the one with notoriously bad pay and shit conditions, with most of the profits being funnelled to owners (or worse...) so... maybe it's not a bad thing?

I read a reporter who went out and interviewed restaurant workers who left because of the bump in unemployment benefits, and a couple of them decided to go back to school and others were taking the opportunity to find somewhere better to work, now that they weren't on the verge of starvation.

In my opinion that may be a good thing, no? And if a bunch of shitty restaurants and bars have to close because the sleazebag owners can't stiff their workers like they used to, and people eat out and drink out less, that's another win for society.

 

[Michchamp]

in actual coronavirus news:

New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.

A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.

The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.
​

I think posters here have mentioned some more informal looks at excess deaths as a basis for assuming the official covid deaths are an undercount. I think this is the first large scale/global study to examine them though. But I could be wrong. here's the actual study. They explain their rationale for re-examining the numbers of deaths:

In the IHME estimation of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to date, we have used officially reported COVID-19 deaths for nearly all locations. As of today, we are switching to a new approach that relies on the estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19. There are several reasons that have led us to adopt this new approach. These reasons include the fact that testing capacity varies markedly across countries and within countries over time, which means that the reported COVID-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths due to COVID-19 also vary markedly across countries and within countries over time. In addition, in many high-income countries, deaths from COVID-19 in older individuals, especially in long-term care facilities, went unrecorded in the first few months of the pandemic. In other countries, such as Ecuador, Peru, and the Russian Federation, the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as ?excess mortality,? suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. Estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is important both for modeling the transmission dynamics of the disease to make better forecasts, and also for understanding the drivers of larger and smaller epidemics across different countries.​

remember when people said "flu kills more people every year, LOL"?

They were and continue to be very, very wrong, even using the lower official death numbers in every place.

 

[tomdalton22]

I read that a few days ago. They are including the higher number of drug overdoses and figuring that many people have died due to lack of care because they couldn't/wouldn't go to the Dr. or received worse care in a hospital due to hospitals being over run with COVID cases. Some of those could be true effects of the COVID pandemic and I think it is reasonable to say the COVID crisis caused some of those deaths.

Suicides were probably up as well. Probably some restaurant owners who went out of business because their dishwashers and cooks wouldn't come back to work.

 

[Spartanmack]

It appears that this $300 extra a week is another way to get employers to pay employees more money. Workers aren't coming back to work because they are getting paid $13 an hour to do nothing. Biden's answer: President Joe Biden urged businesses to boost pay for workers to spur labor growth in a speech Monday, saying, "Americans want to work."

We went to 3 restaurants over the past 5 days, and all three were so under staffed that they had to turn away customers. One was probably only 30% occupied and they had a 2 hour wait due to being under staffed.

seems odd that he would ask that since he also stated there is no evidence people aren't returning to work because of government benefits. I guess no one told him 1 in 4 people receiving the extra $300/week in unemployment benefits are being paid more than they were when they were working. Or maybe getting paid more to stay home isn't actual evidence that people aren't returning to work because of generous government benefits.

 

[Spartanmack]

in actual coronavirus news:

New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.

A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.

The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.
​

I think posters here have mentioned some more informal looks at excess deaths as a basis for assuming the official covid deaths are an undercount. I think this is the first large scale/global study to examine them though. But I could be wrong. here's the actual study. They explain their rationale for re-examining the numbers of deaths:

In the IHME estimation of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to date, we have used officially reported COVID-19 deaths for nearly all locations. As of today, we are switching to a new approach that relies on the estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19. There are several reasons that have led us to adopt this new approach. These reasons include the fact that testing capacity varies markedly across countries and within countries over time, which means that the reported COVID-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths due to COVID-19 also vary markedly across countries and within countries over time. In addition, in many high-income countries, deaths from COVID-19 in older individuals, especially in long-term care facilities, went unrecorded in the first few months of the pandemic. In other countries, such as Ecuador, Peru, and the Russian Federation, the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as ?excess mortality,? suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. Estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is important both for modeling the transmission dynamics of the disease to make better forecasts, and also for understanding the drivers of larger and smaller epidemics across different countries.​

remember when people said "flu kills more people every year, LOL"?

They were and continue to be very, very wrong, even using the lower official death numbers in every place.

that was out last week and like most of the garbage you post here, it's probably wrong

"I think that the overall message of this (that deaths have been substantially undercounted and in some places more than others) is likely sound, but the absolute numbers are less so for a lot of reasons," said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, in an email to NPR.

Last month, a group of researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University published a study in the medical journal JAMA that examined excess mortality rates in the U.S. through December.

While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.

"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."

 

[Michchamp]

I read that a few days ago. They are including the higher number of drug overdoses and figuring that many people have died due to lack of care because they couldn't/wouldn't go to the Dr. or received worse care in a hospital due to hospitals being over run with COVID cases. Some of those could be true effects of the COVID pandemic and I think it is reasonable to say the COVID crisis caused some of those deaths.

Suicides were probably up as well. Probably some restaurant owners who went out of business because their dishwashers and cooks wouldn't come back to work.

I don't feel as much sympathy as you do for these hypothetical deadbeat restaurant owners who kill themselves because they can't stay in business when they have to follow labor laws and pay their workers' wages without stiffing them

 

[Spartanmack]

the only area of the economy that seems to be suffering from this is the one with notoriously bad pay and shit conditions, with most of the profits being funnelled to owners (or worse...) so... maybe it's not a bad thing?

I read a reporter who went out and interviewed restaurant workers who left because of the bump in unemployment benefits, and a couple of them decided to go back to school and others were taking the opportunity to find somewhere better to work, now that they weren't on the verge of starvation.

In my opinion that may be a good thing, no? And if a bunch of shitty restaurants and bars have to close because the sleazebag owners can't stiff their workers like they used to, and people eat out and drink out less, that's another win for society.

shame on the people who took all the risk, pouring their life savings into building a business taking profits for themselves after paying their employees an agreed upon wage that the employees have every right to refuse and take their skills elsewhere! Those evil capitalists must be stopped! We must force them to take all the risks and let their employees get their prevailing market wages PLUS an equal share of any profits without sharing any of the risk.

 

[Spartanmack]

I don't feel as much sympathy as you do for these hypothetical deadbeat restaurant owners who kill themselves because they can't stay in business when they have to follow labor laws and pay their workers' wages without stiffing them

this should be your avatar...

 

[Spartanmack]

This is why I love and trust the United States Center for disease control, and have no question whatsoever regarding their transparency, honesty or veracity. In other reports, falling pianos, anvils and safes actually kill less than 500,000 people a year even when combined.

It's just off by 2 orders of magnitude - close enough. I do have to take exception to the latter part of your argument - the deaths due to falling pianos, anvils and safes numbers are understated because they probably don't count coyotes and cats that are killed over and over again...

 

[Michchamp]

that was out last week and like most of the garbage you post here, it's probably wrong

it's "probably wrong" because someone disagreed with it...?

from the NPR article

While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.

"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."​

So they agreed there were a lot of excess deaths in America last year, but unlike the team at UW, just throw their hands up and insist something else must have been going around and killing people and we have no idea what.

the UW team concludes - with reasonable inferences, such as NY state hiding deaths due to COVID in nursing homes - that this must have been covid.

I think Univ of Washington's report holds more water than the VCU one for that reason, but you do you..

for fucks sake the state of Florida sent armed police to raid the house of the lady blowing the whistle on the death undercount..

 

[Michchamp]

this should be your avatar...

you really need to learn what a straw argument is already. I mean, he literally brought the hypothetical up in his prior post.

 

[Spartanmack]

it's "probably wrong" because someone disagreed with it...?

from the NPR article

While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.

"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."​

So they agreed there were a lot of excess deaths in America last year, but unlike the team at UW, just throw their hands up and insist something else must have been going around and killing people and we have no idea what.

the UW team concludes - with reasonable inferences, such as NY state hiding deaths due to COVID in nursing homes - that this must have been covid.

I think Univ of Washington's report holds more water than the VCU one for that reason, but you do you..

for fucks sake the state of Florida sent armed police to raid the house of the lady blowing the whistle on the death undercount..

It's probably wrong for the reasons pointed out by experts who disagree with it and came to a much different conclusion based on their research. And thanks for requoting my quote from the NPR piece I posted. Of course you think it holds more water than the Harvard epidimiologist and the VCU study and others - it fits your narrative of fear mongering and more government control/oversight.

 

[Spartanmack]

you really need to learn what a straw argument is already. I mean, he literally brought the hypothetical up in his prior post.

This is the definition of a strawman...

I don't feel as much sympathy as you do for these hypothetical deadbeat restaurant owners who kill themselves because they can't stay in business when they have to follow labor laws and pay their workers' wages without stiffing them

It's not remotely close to the hypothetical he brought up, nor is there evidence to support your hypothetical explanation. You need to learn that pretty much all you do is post strawman arguments.

 

[tinselwolverine]

It's just off by 2 orders of magnitude - close enough. I do have to take exception to the latter part of your argument - the deaths due to falling pianos, anvils and safes numbers are understated because they probably don't count coyotes and cats that are killed over and over again...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t39dinf9zC8

 

[Michchamp]

Huh. Link:

Anti-vax influencers are instructing their fellow anti-vaxxers as well as anti-maskers (at this point the two communities overlap to a huge degree) that one of the best ways to defend themselves from this blight is to co-opt?social distancing, the very strategy they have long decried.

Sherri Tenpenny, an anti-vaxxer who was found to be key in spreading COVID-19 conspiracy theories, suggested on a recent anti-vax livestream that you may have to ?stay away from somebody who's had these shots?forever.?

Another prominent anti-vaxxer suggested quarantining people who have been vaccinated. ?There is something being passed from people who are shot up with this poison to others who have not gotten the shot,? said Larry Palevsky, a New York pediatrician and anti-vaxxer, on a separate livestream. They should also ?have a badge on their arms that say ?I've been vaccinated even though it's not a vaccine? so that we know to avoid them on the street, to not go near them anywhere in society,? he said.

It?s not just social distancing that anti-maskers/anti-vaxxers are begrudgingly accepting. Some conspiracy theorists are wondering if perhaps their longtime bane, the mask, could become their salvation. One perplexed poster on the fringe site 4chan asked their fellow anons if they should ?wear a mask around the vaccinated, because they shed the mRNA stuff?"
​

It's troubling (to put it mildly) that there are so many of these people.

 

[tinselwolverine]

CDC suspends mask mandate for vaccinated people in most situations.

 

[turok]

I really just want a big supply of N95 masks...why President Biden hasn't invoked the Emergency Powers Act so to have certain businesses switch over to manufacturing them to build up a national stockpile I don't get...but w/e...there only has been 100s of movies made over the past few decades about out of control contagions, yet this nation was caught flatfooted and unprepared. for a real one!! Plus most of the US N95 mask-manufacturers offshored long ago to China or whereever....so fucking dumb.

 

[Michchamp]

I really just want a big supply of N95 masks...why President Biden hasn't invoked the Emergency Powers Act so to have certain businesses switch over to manufacturing them to build up a national stockpile I don't get...but w/e...there only has been 100s of movies made over the past few decades about out of control contagions, yet this nation was caught flatfooted and unprepared. for a real one!! Plus most of the US N95 mask-manufacturers offshored long ago to China or whereever....so fucking dumb.

it really is nuts.

The CDC waiving the mask "mandate" could prove to be a disaster.

it's dumb to call it a mandate to begin with, because for MONTHS here, you've been able to go eat inside a restaurant and take your mask off, basically as soon as you get to your table.

Now on top of that, you have all these retards who've been complaining about having to wear a mask all this time, and who are also "anti-vaxx" who will simply lie about having been vaccinated so they can do their walmart shopping or applebees gorging without a mask. ... i.e. we are so going to have another wave of this in a month or two, and it might be the worst one yet.

AND On top of ALL THAT, I read this comment today:

I have to keep repeating this: Pfizer and Moderna measured efficacy ONLY against serious infections and deaths. Pfizer didn?t even test participants regularly; its protocol asked them to call a nurse if they had symptoms and the nurse would decide if they needed to be tested. So Pfizer would never capture an asymptomatic case and could easily have missed mild ones.​

So... there's a good chance even vaccinated people will keep getting sick (even if these are only mild cases), and since we just said they don't need to wear masks after they get their shots, they'll be potentially spreading it to everyone around them who is not vaccinated, which is like 50% of all American adults, and close to 100% of everyone under 18.

I'm going to keep wearing a mask.

 

[tomdalton22]

it really is nuts.

The CDC waiving the mask "mandate" could prove to be a disaster.

it's dumb to call it a mandate to begin with, because for MONTHS here, you've been able to go eat inside a restaurant and take your mask off, basically as soon as you get to your table.

Now on top of that, you have all these retards who've been complaining about having to wear a mask all this time, and who are also "anti-vaxx" who will simply lie about having been vaccinated so they can do their walmart shopping or applebees gorging without a mask. ... i.e. we are so going to have another wave of this in a month or two, and it might be the worst one yet.

AND On top of ALL THAT, I read this comment today:

I have to keep repeating this: Pfizer and Moderna measured efficacy ONLY against serious infections and deaths. Pfizer didn?t even test participants regularly; its protocol asked them to call a nurse if they had symptoms and the nurse would decide if they needed to be tested. So Pfizer would never capture an asymptomatic case and could easily have missed mild ones.​

So... there's a good chance even vaccinated people will keep getting sick (even if these are only mild cases), and since we just said they don't need to wear masks after they get their shots, they'll be potentially spreading it to everyone around them who is not vaccinated, which is like 50% of all American adults, and close to 100% of everyone under 18.

I'm going to keep wearing a mask.

I'm not going to wear mine. The way I look at it, maybe we can kill off all of the "anti-vax" idiots and the liars that say they are vaccinated but are not. Fewer idiots in this country is a good thing:cheers: