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Coronainsanity

While I'm sure you would prefer my numbers originate from a Conservative source, I simply do a Google search on "covid cases" which pulls up data that, to my knowledge, is from the NY Times which THIS particular data they appear to have pulled from John's Hopkins.

When I selected South Africa and Deaths as filters, it shows a decline from the peak. With the UK there is an apparent decline happening, but at this point is admittedly an apparent decline, we will see better next week if it is in fact a decline. As for the US, I am stating a hypothesis that based on how the data for Deaths lags New Cases by at least 2 weeks that in about 2 weeks we will see a decline in US Deaths.

I don't know why you think I have preferences regarding where your numbers came from. Anyway, I did what you said here and I guess I see why you said what you said. What you see as decline, I see as noise. I hope it's the peak. I do think it should be dropping. I expected it to earlier than it has. It's been about a month since the cases peaked. But there's no precedent for the curves to just suddenly turn that sharply.
 
My analysis was in looking at the 7 day average, which has dropped from 180 down to 130 and latest Daily Deaths number being 86. So there is a drop in numbers over the past week. That lines up with what happened during prior spikes in terms of 2 week post spike not only in Sputh Africa but everywhere. By next week I am of the opinion the 7 day average will be below 100, quite possibly below 75, while new deaths will be under 50. That's just a hypothetical projection on my part based on the dataset's current trends.

im showing 7 day avg deaths in US at 1129 as of 11/12

As of Jan 11 its at 1541/day.

That seems to be an increase....

But yes vs week prior we did trend down slightly. Which probably just means there was no room in the hospital and those couple hundred people are just roting away in their apartment somewhere.
 
...and regarding Darwin's theories and how they apply to the human race today? We could probably have a serious discussion on whether or not they apply to individuals in any significant way - and maybe talk about how forms of governments and economy changes things... or we could point to the opening of Idiocracy and just says it's basically not a thing for us anymore.
 
not to mention we have a MUCH larger population for Omicron to burn through compared to an itty bity country like South Africa. It should take longer to cycle thru everyone.

If vaccination has any impact on death rate for omicron south africas population has a rather low vaccination rate. So IFFFFF vaccination provides protection against severe illness...we should be in better shape than they were.

Im in your camp...except ill take out the religious part of it. The human thing to do is to protect other humans right now. Cause we're not going to stop this wave....not seeing any signs people will stop the future waves either. Corona needs to make peoples dicks fall off before they will take action.

South Africa is the 24th most populous country in the world with ~60mm people. It's the third most populous country on the second most populous continent. In addition to having a lower vaccination rate, SA also has vastly inferior healthcare systems than we do so one would expect a deadly virus to kill many more people per capita.

However long it take for Omicron to cycle through our larger population doesn't matter, the death rate is based percentages, not gross numbers.
 
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I don't know why you think I have preferences regarding where your numbers came from. Anyway, I did what you said here and I guess I see why you said what you said. What you see as decline, I see as noise. I hope it's the peak. I do think it should be dropping. I expected it to earlier than it has. It's been about a month since the cases peaked. But there's no precedent for the curves to just suddenly turn that sharply.

I also think hes wishful thinking that cases are on the decline...they seem to be raising in several major cities. Deaths will rise in a couple weeks im assuming.
 
My analysis was in looking at the 7 day average, which has dropped from 180 down to 130 and latest Daily Deaths number being 86. So there is a drop in numbers over the past week. That lines up with what happened during prior spikes in terms of 2 week post spike not only in Sputh Africa but everywhere. By next week I am of the opinion the 7 day average will be below 100, quite possibly below 75, while new deaths will be under 50. That's just a hypothetical projection on my part based on the dataset's current trends.

There probably weren't 550 deaths Jan 6th. So the jump up from 89 to 150 is exaggerated as is the drop 7 days later. I'm not sure what's so different about the two websites because they more or less agree overall looking back, but the other site is less noisy and is just now getting up to 130.
 
I also think hes wishful thinking that cases are on the decline...they seem to be raising in several major cities. Deaths will rise in a couple weeks im assuming.

I really expected it to drop by now in S. Africa and the UK. US I expect will continue to rise and how long it's taking S. Africa to drop isn't helping my expectations.
 
Are you clicking the wrong article, or just fucking with me? I'll cut and paste directly from the article:
The idea that infections tend to become less lethal over time was first proposed by notable bacteriologist Dr. Theobald Smith in the late 1800s. His theory about pathogen evolution was later dubbed the "law of declining virulence."

Simple and elegant, Smith's theory was that to ensure their own survival, pathogens evolve to stop killing their human hosts. Instead, they create only a mild infection, allowing people to walk around, spreading the virus further afield. Good for the virus, and, arguably, good for us.

But over the past 100 years, virologists have learned that virus evolution is more chaotic. Virus evolution is a game of chance, and less about grand design.

In some cases, viruses evolve to become more virulent.
Continued virus survival, spread and virulence are all about the evolutionary pressures of multiple factors, including the number of people available to infect, how long humans live after infection, the immune system response and time between infection and symptom onset. Unfortunately, that means it's nearly impossible to predict the future of the pandemic, because viruses don't always evolve in a predictable pattern.

SO yeah. Anyone asserting viruses always - or even often - evolve to become less virulent needs to produce evidence supporting this claim, and there is none. THey're just referencing pure speculation from a theory that's over 100 years old.

No one knows what a virus will evolve to do... it's pure chance.



Measles isn't maybe the best example, since it's always had a low mortality rate, and mortality is limited to kids under 5. And those vaccines were developed by science for the benefit of humanity, not by greedy MBAs at large pharmaceutical corporations, looking for a way to profit.

If we're looking at Spanish Flu as a historical example though, looks like their were 4 waves of it before it kinda petered out. We're on wave #4 right now!

The wikipedia article isn't very detailed about the end of the 1918 Pandemic:
By 1920, the virus that caused the pandemic became much less deadly and caused only ordinary seasonal flu.
Like... that's it, I guess? Just wait it out.

Also, probably like the Spanish Flu, once this ends, we'll have several years of neurological disorders and secondary infections caused by COVID-19 to hit to look forward too. But I'm sure we'll just wave those off and scoff at anyone who links the two together.

But even if you have the view that there's nothing we can do that will stop a viral pandemic, I think the smart, humane, decent, Christian approach is still to attempt to limit the spread, saving lives and minimizing the number of sick. Curbing the spread until a less virulent strain becomes prevalent and outcompetes the more lethal variants could add up to additional years of average lifespan for your country, save 100,000's or millions of lives, and set a good precedent for how you yourself will be treated when you're elderly and vulnerable to disease.

But the alternative approach seems to have won out, and will probably win out next time, for better or worse: who fucking cares? People die and get sick all the time. STFU and GBTW.

No one is disputing anything. He absolutely supports the premise in the title, which is something everybody already knows - and that every virologist I?ve read on the topic agrees with - not every virus mutates to become less virulent.


To me he doesn?t take a position on whether it?s a generality or not. I?ve read and posted links to where a lot of virologists claim it?s a generality?

I got to run now later I will re-post some of those links.
 
South Africa is the 24th most populous country in the world with ~60mm people. It's the third most populous country on the second most populous continent. In addition to having a lower vaccination rate, SA also has vastly inferior healthcare systems than we do so one would expect a deadly virus to kill many more people per capita.

However long it take for Omicron to cycle through our larger population doesn't matter, the death rate is based percentages, not gross numbers.


Comments I read on Omicron mentioned that SA had many more people infected by COVID & recovered already, compared to the U.S., and said it was therefore not wise to look at their hospitalization and death rates when drawing conclusions for how it would affect the U.S.
 
...

Im in your camp...except ill take out the religious part of it. ...


Oh, me too. I only like to include that kinda "What Would Jesus Do?" line because it's fun to point out how at odds Conservatives policies are from their claimed moral inspiration.
 
To Save Time, Biden To Ship 500 Million Free Masks Directly To Landfill

WASHINGTON, D.C.?The White House is releasing new details surrounding President Biden?s plan to send free facemasks to every American. In an effort to save time, the free masks will be shipped directly to landfills nationwide.

?The science tells us that wearing a high-quality mask over your nose and mouth probably might possibly help prevent COVID maybe,? said press secretary Jen Psaki. ?Therefore, the President is committed to making sure every American has access to a medium-quality government mask manufactured by the lowest bidder.?

?That being said, we realize that anyone who wants to wear a mask probably owns several dozen already,? Psaki continued. ?We also know that many others want your grandmother to die and thus refuse to wear masks at all. So, to save money, we?ll be shipping all masks directly to local landfills.?

Joe Marsecci, chairman of the Masked Citizens Environmental Alliance, praised the Biden administration?s decision. ?The decision to ship these masks directly to the landfill saves both time and money, as well as reducing carbon emissions from delivery and waste-hauling services,? Marsecci said. ?The only thing more ecologically responsible would be dumping all the masks directly into the ocean.?

At press time, the White House was denying reports that Biden?s plan to purchase 500 million facemasks was in any way related to his son Hunter being named chairman of the board of a large Ukrainian facemask conglomerate.

https://babylonbee.com/news/to-save...m_source=Gab&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=Gab
 
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To Save Time, Biden To Ship 500 Million Free Masks Directly To Landfill

WASHINGTON, D.C.?The White House is releasing new details surrounding President Biden?s plan to send free facemasks to every American. In an effort to save time, the free masks will be shipped directly to landfills nationwide.

?The science tells us that wearing a high-quality mask over your nose and mouth probably might possibly help prevent COVID maybe,? said press secretary Jen Psaki. ?Therefore, the President is committed to making sure every American has access to a medium-quality government mask manufactured by the lowest bidder.?

?That being said, we realize that anyone who wants to wear a mask probably owns several dozen already,? Psaki continued. ?We also know that many others want your grandmother to die and thus refuse to wear masks at all. So, to save money, we?ll be shipping all masks directly to local landfills.?

Joe Marsecci, chairman of the Masked Citizens Environmental Alliance, praised the Biden administration?s decision. ?The decision to ship these masks directly to the landfill saves both time and money, as well as reducing carbon emissions from delivery and waste-hauling services,? Marsecci said. ?The only thing more ecologically responsible would be dumping all the masks directly into the ocean.?

At press time, the White House was denying reports that Biden?s plan to purchase 500 million facemasks was in any way related to his son Hunter being named chairman of the board of a large Ukrainian facemask conglomerate.

https://babylonbee.com/news/to-save...m_source=Gab&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=Gab

Lol this made me laugh in rl...cause its true.

Trump was a moron with a team full of morons supporting him.

Biden is a fossil...who cant even speak coherently let alone lead a nation out of this mess.

Govt is not going to help us get out of this mess and the media whos sole responsibility should be education on what were dealing with is now confused and and littered with political bias.

Its up to the people...and the people are dumb. Sooo...ya were fucked.
 
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Comments I read on Omicron mentioned that SA had many more people infected by COVID & recovered already, compared to the U.S., and said it was therefore not wise to look at their hospitalization and death rates when drawing conclusions for how it would affect the U.S.

That could be the case. In that region hydroxychloroquine is readily available and commonly used for malaria. Regardless of what Fauci says a number of MDs have claimed success with that medication when combined with zinc and azithromycin.
 
im showing 7 day avg deaths in US at 1129 as of 11/12

As of Jan 11 its at 1541/day.

That seems to be an increase....

But yes vs week prior we did trend down slightly. Which probably just means there was no room in the hospital and those couple hundred people are just roting away in their apartment somewhere.

Hospital capacity has not hit 100% FULL within any city to my knowledge, let alone a specific state and absolutely not the entire US.

Not to mention there is still zero separation between those who die because of Covid and those who die with Covid. The officials continue to dance around the requests for that information. Meanwhile an apparent increase in Covid Deaths relative to Delta MIGHT be due to Covid, but COULD be due to more people who have died due to other comorbidities have Omicron. That data is not being released.

My guess is IF the 2022 elections flip Congress then Republicans will push for a detailed investigation into this issue, but if not we probably will never know. Until then, these numbers are all we can go by.
 
There probably weren't 550 deaths Jan 6th. So the jump up from 89 to 150 is exaggerated as is the drop 7 days later. I'm not sure what's so different about the two websites because they more or less agree overall looking back, but the other site is less noisy and is just now getting up to 130.

It seemed to me that New Years resulted in some places combining a few days data into singular days. It also seems possible this happens on the weekends at times. That is why I have preferred to look at the 7 day averages. Regarding SA they do not, to my knowledge, have a 3 day weekend so I was taking their single day value as being probably accurate. The US data has definitely been skewed by major holidays like Xmas and NYE, but eventually the numbers are squared away and the 7 day averages play out with less volatility.

I do agree that the trends have taken longer to play out than expected in the US. My guess is that as the variant spreads from coasts/larger cities and then works its way into middle states and smaller cities that the numbers stay up longer. While that seems logical to me, it is admittedly a guess as I do not spend time going into that level of granular analysis.
 
The vaccines are becoming less and less effective, new valid argument are we seriously still going to try and mandate something that doesn?t even work anymore, buck fiden needs to shift to treatment options and centers and stop this big pharmaceutical boondoggle sham

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bc-ml-virus-outbreak-israel_n_61e69b74e4b0c6802eeb95ef

from the article

"Vaccination and a booster still offer strong protection from serious illness, hospitalization and death"
 
Good - you probably should vote for more Rs than I have Ds (for the record, it's one, in a mayoral election - usually I just abstain but in this particular case, I really, really didn't like the R candidate)....

I'll take a guess... that R mayor you voted against was Bloomberg. I know King Mike ran as a Rep...then later changed to Ind and now is a Dem... but as mayor he was running as Rep. Such a fucking scumbag. He truly has no integrity.

It it was not King Mike that drove you to vote Dem (especially when he ran for that illegal 3rd term), I am curious who drove you to do it.
 
from the article

"Vaccination and a booster still offer strong protection from serious illness, hospitalization and death"

that's an interesting line - it's not a quote from a doctor or from any study referenced in the piece and it contradicts what they were saying about omicron. It's possibly true for Delta and earlier strains but those have all peaked and waned for the most part. Seems odd for the Huffington post to possibly mislead its readers.
 
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