Coronainsanity

[tinselwolverine]

Oooo. That's a good reason. And a story it seems like a reporter would want to cover. How could it be investigated? If there was a lot of reporting of other deaths a Covid deaths, we'd expect to see a drop in those other types of death.

Reporter covering it?

Here it is straight from the HHS itself.

 

[Gulo Blue]

We do see drops in other types of deaths.

No. We're seeing like 20-30% more death this year. Some drop in some types would make sense.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Reporter covering it?

Here it is straight from the HHS itself.

I mean doctors lying about it.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I mean doctors lying about it.

Rather than linking to one or many of the stories the come up with a search engine search for ?medical provider fraud,? I?ll just post that I did such a search, and a LOT of stuff came up.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Rather than linking to one or many of the stories the come up with a search engine search for “medical provider fraud,” I’ll just post that I did such a search, and a LOT of stuff came up.

I did a search. I didn't see anything to lead me to suspect it's a significant part of these numbers. (Although, I'm not going to suggest that all the stories about people getting busted for it applies here either. If the government is paying, the insurance companies don't have the motivation to go after it.)

 

[tinselwolverine]

I did a search. I didn't see anything to lead me to suspect it's a significant part of these numbers. (Although, I'm not going to suggest that all the stories about people getting busted for it applies here either. If the government is paying, the insurance companies don't have the motivation to go after it.)

I don’t see anything to lead me to suspect Covid represents a single dollar of those numbers.

How could it? All of those links are to fraudulent activities going on before Covid even existed!

Covid has only been listed as a cause of death in our healthcare system beginning on the second to last day in February.

Paragraph 10 of the section called “The Full Story” of this, beginning with “The CDC advises that officials...” demonstrates that, absent a test result, doctors and facility directors are being afforded a WHOLE LOT of wiggle room to make the determination that the cause of death was Covid with really zero oversight nor accountability.

So a doctor doesn’t necessarily have to lie - just make the advantageous judgement call.

“Hey - it looked like the Covid to me.”

Like the Ohio born and bred ref crew in 2016 version of The Game at the Shoe - “hey-it looked like a first down to us.”

 

[Gulo Blue]

I don’t see anything to lead me to suspect Covid represents a single dollar of those numbers.

How could it? All of those links are to fraudulent activities going on before Covid even existed!

Covid has only been listed as a cause of death in our healthcare system beginning on the second to last day in February.

Paragraph 10 of the section called “The Full Story” of this, beginning with “The CDC advises that officials...” demonstrates that, absent a test result, doctors and facility directors are being afforded a WHOLE LOT of wiggle room to make the determination that the cause of death was Covid with really zero oversight nor accountability.

So a doctor doesn’t necessarily have to lie - just make the advantageous judgement call.

“Hey - it looked like the Covid to me.”

Like the Ohio born and bred ref crew in 2016 version of The Game at the Shoe - “hey-it looked like a first down to us.”

Some deaths are due to people not getting care that they need. Some lives are saved due to the lower level of activity. So we've got some amount of uncertainty and always will - that's fine. Compared to the number of deaths from last year, deaths are up this year. The numbers being reported as covid related are around 2/3rds of the increase we see over last year. At some point, I hope someone will do a study breaking things into specific causes. Traffic deaths down X%, flu deaths down Y%, heart attacks up Z%, whatever it is, to get a better estimate of how many deaths happened that wouldn't have happened without covid 19. But 2/3rds of the increase sounds pretty reasonable to me. Conservative even.

 

[tigermud]

USNS mercy leaves LA after seeing 77 patients

Yet tinsel’s LA remains on lock down.

 

[tigermud]

https://youtu.be/aBAZNqa1SA4

 

[tigermud]

https://youtu.be/V6jQNYkwlA8

 

[Gulo Blue]

Fictionitis: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/


This site has a nice little simulator for a fictional disease. You set the death rate, R0, and length of immunity once recovered and it simulates the path to herd immunity.


edit: not that nice. I question the limits and precision of this thing. Could be more useful.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Fictionitis: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/


This site has a nice little simulator for a fictional disease. You set the death rate, R0, and length of immunity once recovered and it simulates the path to herd immunity.


edit: not that nice. I question the limits and precision of this thing. Could be more useful.

Fictionitis?

That?s a real thing. People get out of work and other shit with fictionitis every day.

Symptoms can be anything - headache, upset stomach, menstrual cramping, delusional psychotic breakdown - pretty much anything.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Fictionitis?

That?s a real thing. People get out of work and other shit with fictionitis every day.

Symptoms can be anything - headache, upset stomach, menstrual cramping, delusional psychotic breakdown - pretty much anything.

The nice thing about fictionitis is that it can be effectively treated by a placebo.

 

[byco42]

Go on...what's your theory? And when you say inflated, are you just not counting cases with underlying issues or do you think a significant portion that had nothing to do with covid are a part of the stats? If it's the latter, how are they getting so many doctors to lie and keeping it to so few speaking out?

Range: 2/01/2020 to 5/16/2020

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD?10 code U07.1 = 62,515. Source: CDC.

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD?10 codes U07.1 or J09?J18.9. = 123,593 Source: CDC.

Doctors are not lying, but it's clear that we (nor they) know that we don't know how many people have actually died of Coronavirus.

I find that concerning. What is the ratio of confirmed/presumed Coronavirus deaths? It would seem that the CDC would go to great lengths to segment these Coronavirus-Pandemic deaths, rather than lump them together, and "presume" them, especially given the stakes.

But we also know that the range of CDC flu deaths have oscillated from 34,000 to 80,000 in 2018-19. They are making a best guess about this and Coronavirus.

Now ? as for a theory: Well, government will never relinquish powers that is has exercised, and it's a lot easier the next time. And I am highly skeptical these measures in any way mitigated the spread of the virus; it just delayed it.

 

[Spartanmack]

Fictionitis: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/


This site has a nice little simulator for a fictional disease. You set the death rate, R0, and length of immunity once recovered and it simulates the path to herd immunity.


edit: not that nice. I question the limits and precision of this thing. Could be more useful.

more useful than the wildly inaccurate models that were used to trigger all the lockdowns?

 

[Spartanmack]

Fictionitis?

That?s a real thing. People get out of work and other shit with fictionitis every day.

Symptoms can be anything - headache, upset stomach, menstrual cramping, delusional psychotic breakdown - pretty much anything.

12" of fresh powder on the slopes - although we called that the 12" flu, which is just a type of ficitionitis.

 

[Gulo Blue]

more useful than the wildly inaccurate models that were used to trigger all the lockdowns?

The models have done very well. I think they got lucky and had no business being as close as they've been. The virus isn't as deadly as it looked in the 1st few weeks and we suck as a nation at exercising what should be common sense and those two things roughly cancelled out.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Range: 2/01/2020 to 5/16/2020

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD?10 code U07.1 = 62,515. Source: CDC.

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD?10 codes U07.1 or J09?J18.9. = 123,593 Source: CDC.

Doctors are not lying, but it's clear that we (nor they) know that we don't know how many people have actually died of Coronavirus.

I find that concerning. What is the ratio of confirmed/presumed Coronavirus deaths? It would seem that the CDC would go to great lengths to segment these Coronavirus-Pandemic deaths, rather than lump them together, and "presume" them, especially given the stakes.

But we also know that the range of CDC flu deaths have oscillated from 34,000 to 80,000 in 2018-19. They are making a best guess about this and Coronavirus.

Now ? as for a theory: Well, government will never relinquish powers that is has exercised, and it's a lot easier the next time. And I am highly skeptical these measures in any way mitigated the spread of the virus; it just delayed it.

Flu peaks in Jan or Feb. This spike in deaths is going up when deaths per week should be going down. Have you seen charts of weekly deaths for this year compared to average years?


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html


But as for the theory that this is a government power grab, is it Trumps power grab or not? Is he a powerless freedom fighter unable to stop the lunacy or the diabolical mastermind behind it? The theory has to mesh with the fact that reported stats are worse in the US than elsewhere - but it is reported everywhere. So how did the right parts of all the worlds' governments and press get on the same page, with the US leading the stats, at a time when the US is more divided than ever? Why is it the instinct of foreign dictators to deny its existence if it's a good way to secure power?



Delaying the virus is a great thing to do if you also ramp up testing capabilities while it's delayed.

 

[Spartanmack]

The models have done very well. I think they got lucky and had no business being as close as they've been. The virus isn't as deadly as it looked in the 1st few weeks and we suck as a nation at exercising what should be common sense and those two things roughly cancelled out.

no, they haven't. At least not the model used to trigger all these lockdowns - the wildly inaccurate model from Neil Ferguson at Imperial college in London. Ferguson is a hack with a history of wildly inaccurate doomsday predictions. This guy should be run out of town, but instead, his garbage is being used to create policy.

[Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?

 

[Gulo Blue]

no, they haven't. At least not the model used to trigger all these lockdowns - the wildly inaccurate model from Neil Ferguson at Imperial college in London. Ferguson is a hack with a history of wildly inaccurate doomsday predictions. This guy should be run out of town, but instead, his garbage is being used to create policy.

That model got a lot of people's attention, but by the time lockdowns were being issued, most public figures, including the White House, were quoting other models. It definitely was not the model used to trigger all these lockdowns.



How long ago did I complain about people taking that study out of context and talk about how even the authors highlighted the unrealistic conditions they used in their calculations? But here you are, still pointing to the outlier as representative. Still ignoring the caveats and context included in that paper and pretending it applies under conditions it explicitly said that it didn't.