- Thread Author
- #581
grandy
Senior Member
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2011
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- 11,701
I’m a little worried what’s going to happen when the turnover differential comes back down to reality. In recent years, even the best differentials eventually settle around +1/game by the end of the season (the Lions are currently at +9 overall, +2.25/game). There have been some tremendous turnover advantages so far to start the season, but history has shown that it’s not sustainable. It’s going to level off at some point, how the Lions handle it should give us an idea of how good they really are.
I’m sure they can, but they won’t keep pace with the +2 or +3 games they’ve had so far. They’re off to a hot start and I can’t even call it luck, they’ve had legit takeaways, but be prepared for some 0 or negative turnover games. If they can win without a big turnover advantage, they’re the real deal.
Looking back on what I said in the last Minnesota game thread, here's the turnover differentials since:
Carolina -1
New Orleans -2
Pittsburgh +1
Green Bay -1
Cleveland +1
Chicago 0
Minnesota -2
They've fallen to +5 overall or +0.45/game.
I knew the turnover advantage wasn't sustainable, but I didn't think they'd be free falling back to reality this fast. I didn't want to believe it was just smoke and mirrors early on, but the turnovers sort of hinted at this. We haven't seen many of those clutch takeaways lately, not having that advantage hurts them.