Ichiro 4000 hits

[Mitchrapp]

Everybody has a different definition on what comprises a great player.

OBP and overall Defense are the first two stats I look at. Then OPS - then SLG - then BA.

People seem to forget what kind of team Ichiro played on. Much like Tony Gwynn getting pitched around constantly, what kind of career would Ichiro and Gwynn amassed, had they played on perennial contenders and pitchers forced to feed their hitting zones more often?

Them the breaks..

If the writers, and I'm not too fond of them think 2700+ hits with speed and great defense are worthy I have no problem. This first ballot thing stinks, who are they to say a guy doesn't deserve 1st ballot but 2nd time is okay?

I'll go back to Ozzie Smith, as I often do. If he was a 1st ballot guy with over 90% then Ichiro should be. But then again, Tram should be in..

 

[tomdalton22]

more insanity from this guy

What I have said about Ichiro is spot on. You just tell me that I am insane and in the minority yet you don't bring anything to the table telling me why. Go compare Ichiro to other HOF caliber corner OF'ers and you will see that he is inferior in most offensive categories except for batting average.

 

[Rebbiv]

and again u are in the minority

I am also in the minority then. But at least I can back up the position with facts, not hyperbole.

 

[Mitchrapp]

If he was an American, I bet people would say he's not there yet. Nice numbers, maybe, but not there yet. And some dumb guy will vote for him because they say he has 4000 hits ;-)

 

[Rebbiv]

Everybody has a different definition on what comprises a great player.

OBP and overall Defense are the first two stats I look at. Then OPS - then SLG - then BA.

People seem to forget what kind of team Ichiro played on. Much like Tony Gwynn getting pitched around constantly, what kind of career would Ichiro and Gwynn amassed, had they played on perennial contenders and pitchers forced to feed their hitting zones more often?

Irrelevant.

What about Blyleven?

We should weigh Ripken's career better because of the shitty Oriole's teams he played on?

Or maybe we should lessen Kaline's career because he played on really good Tiger teams?


Kaline 27-38 = .292 BAVG .385 OBP .492 SLG .878 OPS 107.03 RC/650


League Averages

Kaline 27 (1962) = .255 BAVG .325 OBP .394 SLG .719 OPS

Kaline 32 (1967) = .236 BAVG .303 OBP .351 SLG .654 OPS

Kaline 38 (1973) = .259 BAVG .328 OBP .381 SLG .709 OPS


Suzuki 27-38 = .322 BAVG .365 OBP .419 SLG .784 OPS 96.43 RC/650


League Averages

Suzuki 27 (2001) = .267 BAVG .334 OBP .428 SLG .762 OPS

Suzuki 32 (2006) = .275 BAVG .339 OBP .437 SLG .776 OPS

Suzuki 38 (2012) = .255 BAVG .320 OBP .411 SLG .731 OPS


Kaline had 20 points on Ichiro in OBP, which isn't era adjusted. Keep in mind, Kaline averaged .878 OPS while average AL player during his time was lucky to average .694 OPS (difference in 186 points). Ichiro's timeframe it was .755 and he averaged .784 (difference of 30 points).

 

[Mitchrapp]

Don't forget, Kaline at least partially played in a pitcher era. Maybe you adjusted to that I don't know..

 

[tomdalton22]

I am also in the minority then. But at least I can back up the position with facts, not hyperbole.

Alex seems to tell me that all of my opinions (that he doesn't agree with) are in the minority. He rarely has anything to offer.

 

[byco42]

Ages 27-38

Rose 1909 G 8819 PA .318 BAVG .393 OBP .440 SLG .833 OPS 101.32 RC/650

Suzuki 1911 G 8723 PA .322 BAVG .365 OBP .419 SLG .784 OPS 96.43 RC/650


Both averaged 159 Games from age 27-38. And really, that is part of the point. Suzuki, Rose, and Ripken all averaged above 98% of games played during ages 27-37. This helps with COUNTING (Hits, Runs, RBIS, HRs, SBs, etc) stats. Rate stats adjust over time (BAVG, OPS, wOBA, etc) and diminish with age. From age 27-38, Al Kaline only averaged 124 games per year. His counting stats suffered, but his rate stats still fa exceed Suzuki and Rose.


League Averages

Rose 27 (1968) = .243 BAVG .300 OBP .341 SLG .641 OPS

Rose 32 (1973) = .254 BAVG .322 OBP .376 SLG .698 OPS

Rose 38 (1979) = .261 BAVG .325 OBP .385 SLG .710 OPS


Suzuki 27 (2001) = .267 BAVG .334 OBP .428 SLG .762 OPS

Suzuki 32 (2006) = .275 BAVG .339 OBP .437 SLG .776 OPS

Suzuki 38 (2012) = .255 BAVG .320 OBP .411 SLG .731 OPS


Rose's OPS was consistently 100 points over league average. Ichiro's was consistently within 50 points of league average. Al Kaline's was about 150 points above league average.

If Al Kaline is a first time ballot HoFer, then I have a problem with Ichiro being one. He is certainly a HoFer, just not on the first ballot.

Perhaps the proliferation of the rabbit ball and PEDs had an effect of the differential between the two eras? Are pitchers included in league averages? And does this not further illustrate Kaline's greatness?

 

[Rebbiv]

Perhaps the proliferation of the rabbit ball and PEDs had an effect of the differential between the two eras? Are pitchers included in league averages? And does this not further illustrate Kaline's greatness?

1962 MLB AVG OF = .794 OPS
1962 MLB AVG = 59.9 PA/SBA

1967 MLB AVG OF = .733 OPS
1967 MLB AVG = 52.7 PA/SBA

1972 MLB AVG OF = .728 OPS
1972 MLB AVG = 48.1 PA/SBA

1977 MLB AVG OF = .778 OPS
1977 MLB AVG = 33.7 PA/SBA

1982 MLB AVG OF = .748 OPS
1982 MLB AVG = 33.6 PA/SBA

1987 MLB AVG OF = .790 OPS
1987 MLB AVG = 31.7 PA/SBA

1992 MLB AVG OF = .728 OPS (1991 = .738, 1993= .766)
1992 MLB AVG = 29.4 PA/SBA

1997 MLB AVG OF = .786 OPS
1997 MLB AVG = 36.0 PA/SBA

2002 MLB AVG OF = .794 OPS
2002 MLB AVG = 46.3 PA/SBA

2007 MLB AVG OF = .787 OPS
2007 MLB AVG = 42.8 PA/SBA

2012 MLB AVG OF = .756 OPS
2012 MLB AVG = 37.9 PA/SBA



Impacts like rule changes (over-sized gloves for infielders banned 62, mound height in 69, DH in 73), divisional splits (69 & 94), and expansion (61, 62, 69, 77, 98) has had more effect watering down the pitching, thus increasing the offense.

Additionally, astro turf stadiums came around in the late 60s/early 70s and were replaced by the late 90s. Astro turf stadiums generally equated to small ball (stolen bases, hit and run, etc). Now we generally have baseball only stadiums with real grass. After a few years, it tends to stabilize. You would think the higher the on base rate, the higher the stolen base attempted. But that is actually contrary to what has basically happened.

(Astro Fields)

Astrodome (HOU) 1965-1999
Busch Stadium II (STL) 1970-1995
Candlestick (SFG) 1971-1978
Exhibition (TOR) 1977-1989
Kaufman (KCR) 1973-1994
Kigndome (SEA) 1977-1999
Metrodome (MIN) 1982-2003
Olympic Stadium (MON) 1977-2001
Riverfront (CIN) 1970-2000
Three Rivers (PIT) 1970-2000
Veteran's (PHI) 1971-2000

 

[Thumb]

If Al Kaline is a first time ballot HoFer, then I have a problem with Ichiro being one. He is certainly a HoFer, just not on the first ballot.

Does it really matter which ballot he gets in on? If we all agree he's HOF worthy, what difference does it make?

And it's also possible he gets in on first ballot because many of his peers are tainted.

Lets also not forget that the voters don't look at other stats and say "Hey, Kaline was first ballot and this guys lacks his stats, we better pass him up lest we slight Al".

 

[Mitchrapp]

Voters are weird. There are some voters, who have admitted, they will never vote for someone on their first ballot. There are certain guys who just by their awesomeness should get 100% of their vote.

Then you have a group who votes for players are weren't even all star players let alone hall of fame type players.

 

[byco42]

1962 MLB AVG OF = .794 OPS
1962 MLB AVG = 59.9 PA/SBA

1967 MLB AVG OF = .733 OPS
1967 MLB AVG = 52.7 PA/SBA

1972 MLB AVG OF = .728 OPS
1972 MLB AVG = 48.1 PA/SBA

1977 MLB AVG OF = .778 OPS
1977 MLB AVG = 33.7 PA/SBA

1982 MLB AVG OF = .748 OPS
1982 MLB AVG = 33.6 PA/SBA

1987 MLB AVG OF = .790 OPS
1987 MLB AVG = 31.7 PA/SBA

1992 MLB AVG OF = .728 OPS (1991 = .738, 1993= .766)
1992 MLB AVG = 29.4 PA/SBA

1997 MLB AVG OF = .786 OPS
1997 MLB AVG = 36.0 PA/SBA

2002 MLB AVG OF = .794 OPS
2002 MLB AVG = 46.3 PA/SBA

2007 MLB AVG OF = .787 OPS
2007 MLB AVG = 42.8 PA/SBA

2012 MLB AVG OF = .756 OPS
2012 MLB AVG = 37.9 PA/SBA



Impacts like rule changes (over-sized gloves for infielders banned 62, mound height in 69, DH in 73), divisional splits (69 & 94), and expansion (61, 62, 69, 77, 98) has had more effect watering down the pitching, thus increasing the offense.

Additionally, astro turf stadiums came around in the late 60s/early 70s and were replaced by the late 90s. Astro turf stadiums generally equated to small ball (stolen bases, hit and run, etc). Now we generally have baseball only stadiums with real grass. After a few years, it tends to stabilize. You would think the higher the on base rate, the higher the stolen base attempted. But that is actually contrary to what has basically happened.

(Astro Fields)

Astrodome (HOU) 1965-1999
Busch Stadium II (STL) 1970-1995
Candlestick (SFG) 1971-1978
Exhibition (TOR) 1977-1989
Kaufman (KCR) 1973-1994
Kigndome (SEA) 1977-1999
Metrodome (MIN) 1982-2003
Olympic Stadium (MON) 1977-2001
Riverfront (CIN) 1970-2000
Three Rivers (PIT) 1970-2000
Veteran's (PHI) 1971-2000

I noticed that Rose's career grass/turf numbers were not that different across the board. Which could suggest there was no effect of turf (in the way of high bounces, ground-ball XBH, faster ball travel on the ground) or that turf may have sustained his numbers that he established as a younger player because of those very factors.

 

[Rebbiv]

I noticed that Rose's career grass/turf numbers were not that different across the board. Which could suggest there was no effect of turf (in the way of high bounces, ground-ball XBH, faster ball travel on the ground) or that turf may have sustained his numbers that he established as a younger player because of those very factors.

Interesting to find out that Rose played 73.4% on turf after turning 40. That is how prevalent AstroTurf was back then, at least in the NL.

After 40

Grass = .264 BAVG .341 OBP .318 SLG .658 OPS .276 BABIP 14.8% XBH

Turf = .274 BAVG .360 OBP .331 SLG .691 OPS .293 BABIP 17.1% XBH