Lions pick up Ebron's fifth year option

[LKP]

I don't understand your point. Are you saying if Ebron got 22 red zone targets he would have 10 TDs?

Based on last years numbers, if he had 4 times the red zone targets (6x4 = 24 targets) he would have 4 TDs (1x4=4 TDs)

He caught 5 of the 6 balls. Redzone is inside the 20. Ebron is a big time TD threat. 2015 proves that in 13 games. Lions have a ton of red zone weapons. Stafford has 30+ TDs. Don't care how. Golladay can have all 30 for all I care

 

[dubbsco]

Dude's got 7 TDs in 3 years. If you think he's a "big time TD threat" with those STATS (cannot be made up), then you should move along. You are the only one in the world that thinks he's a big time TD threat.

 

[LKP]

Dude's got 7 TDs in 3 years. If you think he's a "big time TD threat" with those STATS (cannot be made up), then you should move along. You are the only one in the world that thinks he's a big time TD threat.

He scored a bunch in 2015. So teams had to be more carful with him. Lions have a ton of red zone threats, so Ebron didn't get the targets in 2016 (only 6). Plus some games missed. 9 out of 48. Plus he has 8 (1 rushing). Also refs took some away (Titans OPI bullshit)

If you watch, not just use stats, but watch Ebron and the other Lions players, you would know they are all good red zone threats.

 

[dubbsco]

Eh whatever. It is what it is. Dude's caught 7 TDs, and he was supposed to be a game changer. You can bull shit your way through it but he needs to step up in a big way to justify his draft position.

 

[LKP]

Eh whatever. It is what it is. Dude's caught 7 TDs, and he was supposed to be a game changer. You can bull shit your way through it but he needs to step up in a big way to justify his draft position.

Improvement is always welcomed. There are 22 redzone targets or more to go around if Boldin doesn't return. 7-8 TDs for Ebron. Another 700+ yards. Maybe 850-1,000 yards if he plays all 16.

900 yards and 7 TDs if he plays 16 is what I want to see in year 4. Y4E


Hope Stafford has full finger functionality all 16 too.

 

[dubbsco]

Fine. I'll take it. And I think you admitting that he needs to improve shows that he hasn't lived up to what we've expected.

Tight ends taken this high are luxury picks and should be near immediate impacts. He has a ways to go.

 

[LKP]

Fine. I'll take it. And I think you admitting that he needs to improve shows that he hasn't lived up to what we've expected.

Tight ends taken this high are luxury picks and should be near immediate impacts. He has a ways to go.

He has lived up to expectations based on his circumstances and the team circumstances of having a ton of weapons with targets to share. He's a good player and a good weapon. Top 10 doesn't always end up great and many fail. Ebron has been good and far from a fail. People had way too high of expectations.

Every player always should strive for improvement.

 

[dubbsco]

Tell anyone that knows the game of football that Ebron isn't living up to expectations because the team "has too many weapons," and they'll laugh in your face.

That's not a real thing.

 

[mhughes0021]

Eh whatever. It is what it is. Dude's caught 7 TDs, and he was supposed to be a game changer. You can bull shit your way through it but he needs to step up in a big way to justify his draft position.

Its not all about JUST the TDs he caught. Its the multiplicity factor of if he got more targets what he potentially could have in TDs IFFFF he didnt drop them all. If you multiply 24 more targets x 3 then divide by 1 golden unicorn then he would end up with 72 more TDs then anyone else. This is his true TD number. Then if you pretended he could block worth a lick hed have 32 pancackes which is tied for the best tackle in the NFL. There, Ebron is now the best TE and the best tackle in the NFL with 72 touchdowns and 32 pancake blocks.

 

[UMRules06]

He has lived up to expectations based on his circumstances and the team circumstances of having a ton of weapons with targets to share. He's a good player and a good weapon. Top 10 doesn't always end up great and many fail. Ebron has been good and far from a fail. People had way too high of expectations.

Every player always should strive for improvement.

He has lived up to whose expectations? Yours? Your expectations for any Lions player are that they just show up. You'll dismiss anything negative that they do as unfair circumstances, as if other teams all have ideal or perfect scenarios going on for their players. If you ask anybody else they will say Ebron has either failed to live up to their expectations, or they're still waiting for him to take another step forward. Something along those lines.

And why shouldn't we have high expectations for a tight end drafted at #10? If we have a ton of good weapons as you say, then what was the point of drafting him so high in the first place? It seems like he just wasn't that high a priority of a piece to add wouldn't you say? If he was drafted in the third round or something like that I don't think you'd find as much backlash against the pick. It's not the player, its the value we lost that annoys people.

I do have hope for him that he could have a monster year in 2017 though. I just have a hunch he could be a pleasant surprise. We shall see.

 

[inkfreq]

I am not defending Ebron in any way, but I will never understand why football fans focus so much on who got the TD.

Player A is the team's biggest red zone threat.

The opposing team knows this and covers the hell out of player A.

QB doesn't want to force throws into heavy coverage, so he throws to player B.

Player B scores, Player A was STILL an effective red zone threat.. that's why it's called a THREAT.

If not for Player A drawing double coverage, Player B is covered and doesn't score.

This is football 101... maybe 102. The question that needs to be asked is NOT how many TDs Ebron has in the red zone, but how many times a Lions player was roaming free in the red zone to catch a pass while Ebron was pulling help over the top in the red zone as well.

I have never seen a number you can look up that will answer that one for you, but I can promise you, it's something Lions coaches know. They know whether he's doing his job or not.

I always liked +/- rating in hockey, because it tells you within a degree of accuracy who does their job, regardless of who scores the goal.

 

[mhughes0021]

He has lived up to whose expectations? Yours? Your expectations for any Lions player are that they just show up. You'll dismiss anything negative that they do as unfair circumstances, as if other teams all have ideal or perfect scenarios going on for their players. If you ask anybody else they will say Ebron has either failed to live up to their expectations, or they're still waiting for him to take another step forward. Something along those lines.

And why shouldn't we have high expectations for a tight end drafted at #10? If we have a ton of good weapons as you say, then what was the point of drafting him so high in the first place? It seems like he just wasn't that high a priority of a piece to add wouldn't you say? If he was drafted in the third round or something like that I don't think you'd find as much backlash against the pick. It's not the player, its the value we lost that annoys people.

I do have hope for him that he could have a monster year in 2017 though. I just have a hunch he could be a pleasant surprise. We shall see.

At the least he could "Levy us" and just have a great contract year and make a decent 2nd contract.

 

[mhughes0021]

I am not defending Ebron in any way, but I will never understand why football fans focus so much on who got the TD.

Player A is the team's biggest red zone threat.

The opposing team knows this and covers the hell out of player A.

QB doesn't want to force throws into heavy coverage, so he throws to player B.

Player B scores, Player A was STILL an effective red zone threat.. that's why it's called a THREAT.

If not for Player A drawing double coverage, Player B is covered and doesn't score.

This is football 101... maybe 102. The question that needs to be asked is NOT how many TDs Ebron has in the red zone, but how many times a Lions player was roaming free in the red zone to catch a pass while Ebron was pulling help over the top in the red zone as well.

I have never seen a number you can look up that will answer that one for you, but I can promise you, it's something Lions coaches know. They know whether he's doing his job or not.

I always liked +/- rating in hockey, because it tells you within a degree of accuracy who does their job, regardless of who scores the goal.

With that said.....ive never seen Ebron pull coverage away from anyone in the red zone. I usually see him completely locked up by a lb in single coverage. Hes not very effective in the red zone.

 

[inkfreq]

With that said.....ive never seen Ebron pull coverage away from anyone in the red zone. I usually see him completely locked up by a lb in single coverage. Hes not very effective in the red zone.

I agree. I don't believe the coaching and management staff agree. They picked up his 5th year for a reason when they didn't have to.

But I don't see Ebron eating a second defender... ever.

My point is, there is one ball. It goes one place. And if our QB is any kind of a braniac at all, it's going to go to the easiest place there is, not the hardest. And if the opposing defense has any IQ points in their melons, they are not going to let your best red zone threats roll free in the red zone, those guys won't be the easy targets.

Hence, logic would dictate, TDs is a relatively meaningless stat when judging the team effectiveness of a player.

 

[mhughes0021]

I agree. I don't believe the coaching and management staff agree. They picked up his 5th year for a reason when they didn't have to.

But I don't see Ebron eating a second defender... ever.

My point is, there is one ball. It goes one place. And if our QB is any kind of a braniac at all, it's going to go to the easiest place there is, not the hardest. And if the opposing defense has any IQ points in their melons, they are not going to let your best red zone threats roll free in the red zone, those guys won't be the easy targets.

Hence, logic would dictate, TDs is a relatively meaningless stat when judging the team effectiveness of a player.

I gotta challenge you on that one a bit. IF we can agree hes never doubled in the red zone. It takes a special kind of shitty 6'5'' player to not get open and get more balls thrown your way when youre manned up vs a typically undersized LB compared to you. Youre going 1v1 on someone supposedly smaller and slower than you....and your qb cant get you the ball? You then either, cant run a route, often run the wrong route, lack of trust with the qb, or you just plain drop the ball way too much. When all of those reasons are true, the low TD stat is pretty meaningful. 1 td? Top 10 pick. 1 td?

Said it before....with how much they talk about switching philosophy to more of a power run game im actually surprised they picked up his 5th year. I was reading some quotes from Quin in regards to drafting a TE....he strongly suggested if the board worked out we could have seen one much earlier. I woudnt have been surprised if OJ Howard would have been the pick if he dropped.

 

[inkfreq]

I gotta challenge you on that one a bit. IF we can agree hes never doubled in the red zone. It takes a special kind of shitty 6'5'' player to not get open and get more balls thrown your way when youre manned up vs a typically undersized LB compared to you. Youre going 1v1 on someone supposedly smaller and slower than you....and your qb cant get you the ball? You then either, cant run a route, often run the wrong route, lack of trust with the qb, or you just plain drop the ball way too much. When all of those reasons are true, the low TD stat is pretty meaningful. 1 td? Top 10 pick. 1 td?

Said it before....with how much they talk about switching philosophy to more of a power run game im actually surprised they picked up his 5th year. I was reading some quotes from Quin in regards to drafting a TE....he strongly suggested if the board worked out we could have seen one much earlier. I woudnt have been surprised if OJ Howard would have been the pick if he dropped.

I disagree with the TD stat there, because I think it's a generally meaningless stat to consider for any player. If a team scores.. let's pick.. 40 TDs (could be 30, could be 20, wouldn't matter).. those balls only went to one guy. That means on every play there were 3, 4, or 5 potential players that didn't score. Are they all suddenly worthless?

I don't think you can take a stat that does not accurately reflect a players contribution and suddenly apply it to one player because he's a top 10 pick, or he's 6'5"... a meaningless stat is meaningless no matter who you apply it to.

I am, however, in agreement on Ebron. I am surprised we picked up the 5th year option, and it may simply be a case of overpay a guy to fill a spot in a year when you may have troubles hitting the cap floor.

It may just be "Hey, we have 90 million available next year. We're going to face a contract discussion with both Stafford and Ansah, and we have a lot of holes to fill. If we can not have to deal with one more hole, and we have the money to spend, let's just check that box off the list now".

You might remember, when Ebron was drafted I said loud and clear the only reason I was even remotely okay with the pick is that it meant Pettigrew's time was done... and as it turned out... it wasn't done. So in retrospect, I am not now and have never been an Ebron fan and I think he was possibly Mayhew's worst pick.

I don't want anyone getting the impression I support Ebron in any way. I just find the stat itself pointless to discuss when talking about what a guy does for a team.

 

[dubbsco]

Ink, if you look at some of the league's best WRs and TEs throughout the past decade and sort the data by TDs, you'll see that with a few exceptions, the guys at the top of the list are the best players in the league. If they are good enough, they'll get the ball. That's what makes them special.

There's been too much covering up and explaining away why Ebron doesn't catch TD passes.

Calling TDs a meaningless stat is incorrect, IMO.

Win/Loss by pitchers in baseball, sure. That's meaningless. TDs by NFL players? No shot, that's important.

 

[LKP]

Ebron pulled plenty of coverage. And the Lions ran plenty of safe plays in the redzone. Riddick in the flat, Tate gimmicks and Jone fades to try to score. And Stafford tried to get the ball to a good red zone threat in Boldin with 22 targets.


Ebron had 6 targets in the red zone. And teams did focus on him more after a solid TD season in 2015. Ebron wasn't covered every time. The ref took one TD away in the Titans game. He missed 3 games which lowers targets. The Lions just have a lot of TD worthy weapons. Plus the whole finger issue for Stafford the last 4 games and playoff game. Stafford and Ebron both healthy for 9 games. And who knows how healthy Ebron was right after missing 3 games. And Zenner started scoring at the end of the year at least too in the red zone.


Ebron is a good player. That should be your expectation. He has met that and has the potential to be a great player. Quinn is keeping him at 8.5 million in 2018. That should tell you what he thinks of him.

 

[dubbsco]

Welcome to the NFL LKP. When people realize that you aren't a bum, you are going to get some attention. What makes players special is being able to make those adjustments. Bron bron hasn't come close to doing that.

Stop babying him, please. He's an adult, he doesn't need you covering up for his averageness.

 

[LKP]

The Lions adjusted by targeting other people. Safer routes not doubles in the middle of the field. Ebron caught 5 of 6 red zone passes. If they go to Riddick or Jones or Tate or Boldin that is fine.


Lions had 4 other red zone worthy players.