My way too early yardage prediction thread

[brewer229]

I kind of agree with Tony.... These receivers are pro's, they are paid to catch the rock. No one ever complained about the million dollar arms of Favre or Elway. Touch is fine but it's the job of the QB to get the ball at worst, near them. Stafford does that, may not be pretty but still, he gets it done.

That's fine based on a simple line of thinking. Based on that all Interceptions are the QBs fault since it is their job to not throw any. Also any ball that isn't caught or dropped is considered a poor throw since it is there job to throw the ball in a "catchable area".

Now I don't agree that is true, but if we want to think on a linear path, that is the same thing.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think it lies somewhere in the middle. Some drops are 100% the fault of the WR and some are impacted by poor placement by the QB. That is what separates the average from the good and the good from the great. The best QBs throw a "catchable" ball. They hit the WR in stride, with the right velocity and put the ball exactly where it needs to be more often than not. Stafford has a cannon for an arm but he just isn't as accurate as some of the better QBs.

 

[LKP]

They really only count the ones that are the WRs fault though. That is the whole point of the stat. We are talking 8-9 drops for a season for a player who drops alot. Those 8-9 are not questionable throws, they are clear good throws that a WR/TE/RB drops. There are incompletes that are questionable throws and the WRS get their hands on the ball, but they are not counted as drops. Drops would be higher if that were the case.

 

[tomdalton22]

They really only count the ones that are the WRs fault though. That is the whole point of the stat. We are talking 8-9 drops for a season for a player who drops alot. Those 8-9 are not questionable throws, they are clear good throws that a WR/TE/RB drops. There are incompletes that are questionable throws and the WRS get their hands on the ball, but they are not counted as drops. Drops would be higher if that were the case.

I heard on the radio that Wes Welker lead the league in drops last year yet Manning was able to overcome them and complete 68.3% of his passes.

 

[LKP]

I heard on the radio that Wes Welker lead the league in drops last year yet Manning was able to overcome them and complete 68.3% of his passes.

You know Stafford had several people. Durham, Calvin, Pettigrew, and Bush. When it's 4 people for Manning get back to me. And what was Welkers drop rate.

Edit Welker was 8th with 12% drop rate. And it's more about that for comp %. Separation by weapons, tipped balls and throw aways too. Durham had a 20% drop rate by the way.

 

[brewer229]

They really only count the ones that are the WRs fault though. That is the whole point of the stat. We are talking 8-9 drops for a season for a player who drops alot. Those 8-9 are not questionable throws, they are clear good throws that a WR/TE/RB drops. There are incompletes that are questionable throws and the WRS get their hands on the ball, but they are not counted as drops. Drops would be higher if that were the case.

Here is a site that shows the lions leading the league with 44 drops (which is the number I've seen most often around here). They directly say in their description what counts as a drop. They give the definition I give. They even mention the QB can be partly to blame.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-receiver-drops-percentage/2013/

Fact. Show me something that proves otherwise.

 

[LKP]

PFF tracks catchable balls. Their drop rate % is all based on % dropped per catchable ball. None of the catchable balls are the QBs fault

https://www.profootballfocus.com/da...ason=2013&stype=r&pos=wrd&teamid=-1&filter=25


"The Pro Football Focus "Drop Rate" shows who hangs on to catchable balls most often, the bottom line on the receiving end of the passing game."

And the real point is no matter the site, the Lions have a higher % by 2-3 % than every team. So no matter the criteria, Stafford was affected 2-3% more. Fact.

 

[LKP]

Here is a site that shows the lions leading the league with 44 drops (which is the number I've seen most often around here). They directly say in their description what counts as a drop. They give the definition I give. They even mention the QB can be partly to blame.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-receiver-drops-percentage/2013/

Fact. Show me something that proves otherwise.

Your site is based on targets. My site is based on catchable balls. My site is more accurate and doesn't count bad throws that would hinder a WR.

 

[LKP]

And 5% of 634 attempts is 31.7. So 32 throws. If you have 15 more drops than other teams, 5 more throw aways, 5 more tipped balls and a few more plays with lack of separation from receivers, your comp % will drop to 58.5 instead of 63.5 and it wasn't your fault.

 

[brewer229]

Your site is based on targets. My site is based on catchable balls. My site is more accurate and doesn't count bad throws that would hinder a WR.

We are talking drops, catchable vs targets is irrelevant.

Put it this way. Say you are standing 3 yards away from me and I toss you 20 footballs slowly, with touch, and right at the hands. You will probably catch 19 or 20.

Now same distance, same amount of throws and I this as hard as I can and am very slightly wild, some high, some low, some right and some left. You may do well and catch 15.

So yes both situations the ball is technically catchable, one is more easily to catch. Then if some said if you catch the next 10 in a row I'll give you $1000. What kind of throws would you want? The slower accurate ones or the high speed slightly inaccurate ones?

No one is saying the WRs were perfect, just that Stafford deserves some of the blame.

 

[LKP]

We are talking drops, catchable vs targets is irrelevant.

Put it this way. Say you are standing 3 yards away from me and I toss you 20 footballs slowly, with touch, and right at the hands. You will probably catch 19 or 20.

Now same distance, same amount of throws and I this as hard as I can and am very slightly wild, some high, some low, some right and some left. You may do well and catch 15.

So yes both situations the ball is technically catchable, one is more easily to catch. Then if some said if you catch the next 10 in a row I'll give you $1000. What kind of throws would you want? The slower accurate ones or the high speed slightly inaccurate ones?

No one is saying the WRs were perfect, just that Stafford deserves some of the blame.

Catchable vs targets is everything. Catchable means it's all the WRS fault. They take out the bad throws and focus on when it is just the WRs fault.

Slow throws can be picks as a DB recovers. Don't fault Stafford for having an awesome arm. And it's not just arm. Stafford anticipates really well making a quick decisino and putting it where it needs to be. If it's catchable, it's the WRs fault.

 

[brewer229]

Catchable vs targets is everything. Catchable means it's all the WRS fault. They take out the bad throws and focus on when it is just the WRs fault.

Slow throws can be picks as a DB recovers. Don't fault Stafford for having an awesome arm. And it's not just arm. Stafford anticipates really well making a quick decisino and putting it where it needs to be. If it's catchable, it's the WRs fault.

You are missing the point. My example was not a game situation. But a situation to show how a ball thrown can be more or less catchable. I never said it was bad he had a strong (awesome can be debated) arm. I said because he uses mostly a strong throw he contributes to drops.

Regardless of catchable vs targets the drops remain 44. A site shows 44 drops and says it can be partly blamed on the QB. So how they track drops is if the ball hits the WR hands. They said that happened 44 times.

 

[brewer229]

Also what is considered "catchable".

If it is a rocket throw the the RB 5 yards away that would be caught 51% of the time is that a catchable ball?

I like the site I referenced. It takes opinion out of the equation. It either hit the hands or didnt. Your site adds in human judgement.

 

[LKP]

Also what is considered "catchable".

If it is a rocket throw the the RB 5 yards away that would be caught 51% of the time is that a catchable ball?

I like the site I referenced. It takes opinion out of the equation. It either hit the hands or didnt. Your site adds in human judgement.

Your site is based on targets. That's any ball thrown his way. My site takes into account bad throws and helps the receiver. My site is what you are looking for to truly measure drops and taking out bad throws as costing the WR.

 

[LKP]

And I can assure my site takes out Stafford bad throws

148 targets for Calvin. But the drop rate is based on only 94 catchable balls. 56 not catchable. 10 drops/94 catchable balls.

 

[brewer229]

Your site is based on targets. That's any ball thrown his way. My site takes into account bad throws and helps the receiver. My site is what you are looking for to truly measure drops and taking out bad throws as costing the WR.

I'm not looking at rate. I'm looking at # of drops. So the 44 drops is the only number that matters.

Again what is considered "catchable"? Is the ball calvin caught against cinci catchable?

There is less then 3 guys that can make that catch, even then it's only probaly caught 10% of the time by them. But technically it is catchable since it was caught.

To many variables. I prefer the if it hits your hands and it's not complete it's a drop. Simple to understand, not opinion based.

 

[LKP]

I'm not looking at rate. I'm looking at # of drops. So the 44 drops is the only number that matters.

Again what is considered "catchable"? Is the ball calvin caught against cinci catchable?

There is less then 3 guys that can make that catch, even then it's only probaly caught 10% of the time by them. But technically it is catchable since it was caught.

To many variables. I prefer the if it hits your hands and it's not complete it's a drop. Simple to understand, not opinion based.

Rate is what matters. It ties into comp % and factors in number of attempts. All catchable balls hit players hands.

 

[brewer229]

Rate is what matters. It ties into comp % and factors in number of attempts. All catchable balls hit players hands.

Rate does not matter in what we are debating. Which is, is the QB ever responsible for a drop.

So if Calvin didn't come down with that catch vs Cinci would it of been a drop?
Was the INT off of Faurias hands a drop? The one that was accrues the middle and open about 8 yards down the field but it was throw. Wide and high and fauria made an atheltic play simply to get his hands onthe ball? Since he didn't make the catch is that a drop?

 

[LKP]

Rate does not matter in what we are debating. Which is, is the QB ever responsible for a drop.

So if Calvin didn't come down with that catch vs Cinci would it of been a drop?
Was the INT off of Faurias hands a drop? The one that was accrues the middle and open about 8 yards down the field but it was throw. Wide and high and fauria made an atheltic play simply to get his hands onthe ball? Since he didn't make the catch is that a drop?

No it wasn't a drop. They credit drops and you can look game by game. Calvin caught it, ball placed correctly.

 

[tonyballs]

So it's your opinion that a QB has zero responsibility on drops?

Read the definition of a drop. Essentially it is if theball touches the intended receivers hands and it's not a competition it is a drop.

Are you that dense to not understand how a QB could be at blame for it?

Are you that fn stupid? Not once did i say that the QB isn't responsible for dropped balls, but if it's one guy or multiple guys jobs to go through games and deternine between a drop and a incomplete pass, then you'd have to be a moron to not be able to do it. It's not that hard to decipher between the two. Now, if you're going to blame the QB for throwing the ball to hard, then you're the dense one, buddy .....what a joke.