My way too early yardage prediction thread

[michiganalex]

total passing yards 5050 Total Rushing yards 1950

 

[atxlion82]

Tate had 98 targets in 2013. Burleson had 110 in 2011. I don't see his drop rate dropping that much from 12 more balls.

I think he is saying the drops will have more to do with Staffords placement/velocity of the ball

 

[LKP]

I think he is saying the drops will have more to do with Staffords placement/velocity of the ball

Drops are based on catchable balls. If it's too poor of placement it's not catchable and not counted as a drop. Tate will put Staffords comp % to the proper spot. Also him playing 16 compared to Burlesons 9 games. Burleson and Titus never had a drop problem. They have hands.

 

[tomdalton22]

Drops are based on catchable balls. If it's too poor of placement it's not catchable and not counted as a drop. Tate will put Staffords comp % to the proper spot. Also him playing 16 compared to Burlesons 9 games. Burleson and Titus never had a drop problem. They have hands.

some QBs put the ball where the catch is easy.....Stafford doesn't seem to do that very often.

 

[LKP]

some QBs put the ball where the catch is easy.....Stafford doesn't seem to do that very often.

Those aren't counted as drops is the point though. If it's catchable it's the WRs fault. Drops are not the QBs fault. Drops are always a good throw.

Do we add back when the WR doesn't get proper separation causing Stafford to have to make a tough throw.

 

[Mitchrapp]

5000 passing yards means 8-8.

I'll take 12 INT or less and nice 63.8 completion%.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Those aren't counted as drops is the point though. If it's catchable it's the WRs fault. Drops are not the QBs fault. Drops are always a good throw.

Do we add back when the WR doesn't get proper separation causing Stafford to have to make a tough throw.

You'll have to show me proof that all drops are good throws..

 

[LKP]

5000 passing yards means 8-8.

I'll take 12 INT or less and nice 63.8 completion%.

Does it? It meant 10-6 in 2011. Or did you mean 5,000 exactly, it was 5,038 in 2011.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/12483/year/2011/matthew-stafford

Stafford even had 10 picks in 4 losses in 2011 just like 2013.

 

[LKP]

You'll have to show me proof that all drops are good throws..

You'll have to show me proof they weren't since they base the stat off catchable balls.

 

[brewer229]

Why do you predict Tate will have the most drops?

He is in a new system, which is pass first the DB is less likely to have an eye in the backfield and focus more on defending the pass. He has a stronger armed QB in stafford that struggles in touch and accuracy.

He may see a few more targets and also he has dropped so little it's not hard to drop more than 3. So the bench mark for drops isn't high.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You'll have to show me proof they weren't since they base the stat off catchable balls.

You brought it up ..

And as far as 2011, this isn't 2011.

 

[brewer229]

Those aren't counted as drops is the point though. If it's catchable it's the WRs fault. Drops are not the QBs fault. Drops are always a good throw.

Do we add back when the WR doesn't get proper separation causing Stafford to have to make a tough throw.

It's all subjective. It comes down to someones opinion if it is a drop, which is why it is a junk stat. Different sites show different drop numbers. Some consider a drop anything that hits the hand.

 

[LKP]

It's all subjective. It comes down to someones opinion if it is a drop, which is why it is a junk stat. Different sites show different drop numbers. Some consider a drop anything that hits the hand.

I agree that different sites show different numbers. But here is the important part so pay attention. EVERY site has Detroit 2-3% higher in drop % than most teams. Meaning no matter what, Staffords comp % should be adjusted 2% higher.

 

[LKP]

You brought it up ..

And as far as 2011, this isn't 2011.

2014 isn't 2013.

2013 and 2011 were pretty similar offensive wise for Stafford. It differs, health wise for the WRs, Detorit didn't get the 12 turnovers more forced and they had 8 more fumbles lost. Stafford had a 2011 type season in 2013.

We still had the patented Stafford comebacks against the Bengals to tie it ,Cowboys,and Ravens(last Lion TD drive). Giants was more Ross and run game. But this time some someone messed up against Ravens and Bengals and Arizona. He couldn't do it against Arizona but there defense is a little tougher than say Oakland 2011 or Cowboys 2011. He completed the 4th to Burleson but Burleson was short of the sticks.

Also Calvin played all 16 in 2011. So there is a 2 loss difference right there. Stafford had 92 rating in those 2 games but the Oline and RBs turned to crap without Calvin.

 

[lgolfer]

I agree that different sites show different numbers. But here is the important part so pay attention. EVERY site has Detroit 2-3% higher in drop % than most teams. Meaning no matter what, Staffords comp % should be adjusted 2% higher.

I guess we'll see if that happens in 2014. I think different WRs will help, but I also think that the fact that Stafford often just rifles in his passes, rather than using more finesse has something to do with all the drops.

 

[brewer229]

I agree that different sites show different numbers. But here is the important part so pay attention. EVERY site has Detroit 2-3% higher in drop % than most teams. Meaning no matter what, Staffords comp % should be adjusted 2% higher.

I agree that out drop rate is to high. Where we differ is based on the description ive seen I think Stafford contributes to the high rate. I lay part of the blame on him, I think QB contributes to drops.

There are obvious drops that are only on the WR, however I don't recall seeing 40+. It would be nice to see all the plays where a drop was scored.

 

[LKP]

I agree that out drop rate is to high. Where we differ is based on the description ive seen I think Stafford contributes to the high rate. I lay part of the blame on him, I think QB contributes to drops.

There are obvious drops that are only on the WR, however I don't recall seeing 40+. It would be nice to see all the plays where a drop was scored.

I can give you game by game for each player.

 

[cheeno]

Ditka - 73...da hurricane - 0.

 

[tomdalton22]

Those aren't counted as drops is the point though. If it's catchable it's the WRs fault. Drops are not the QBs fault. Drops are always a good throw.

Do we add back when the WR doesn't get proper separation causing Stafford to have to make a tough throw.

if a wr has to reach behind but still gets his hands on the ball it is a drop. All drops aren't good throws.

 

[LKP]

if a wr has to reach behind but still gets his hands on the ball it is a drop. All drops aren't good throws.

that is not a catchable ball so it's not counted as a drop.