No Deal For Cliff

[cheeno]

He is the only NFL player with at least 19? sacks, nine deflected passes, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries the previous two years.

When the Lions snapped their 11-season postseason drought last year, Avril had career highs with 11 sacks, six forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. He has had 30 career sacks and 14 forced fumbles since 2008, when Detroit drafted him out of Purdue.

Buffalo gave defensive end Mario Williams a $100 million, six-year contract -- with $50 million guaranteed -- when he hit the market this year with fewer than 10 sacks the past three seasons and 53 over his six-year career.

Arizona rewarded defensive end Calais Campbell this offseason with a $55 million, five-year deal after he had no more than eight sacks the past three seasons and 21 in his four-year career.

The Carolina Panthers gave defensive end Charles Johnson a $72 million, six-year deal with a $30 million signing bonus last year after he more than doubled his career total with 11? sacks in 2010.

This puts Avril's play in perspective. And to say it only came from playing next to Suh is asinine, it's like saying Stafford's stats are only due to CJ and has nothing to do progression in their respective talents. Too bad he'll probably walk next year likely with nothing in return.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8...-lions-says-not-planning-report-training-camp

 

[lp4ever41]

This puts Avril's play in perspective. And to say it only came from playing next to Suh is asinine, it's like saying Stafford's stats are only due to CJ and has nothing to do progression in their respective talents. Too bad he'll probably walk next year likely with nothing in return.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8...-lions-says-not-planning-report-training-camp

Fair points...but it doesn't matter if he deserves the money or not. The Lions simply cannot afford it. I'm still not convinced he walks next year because I'm not quite sure he'll have another great statistical year...I expect all his numbers (including his price) to come down this season, but thats just my opinion.

 

[cheeno]

Fair points...but it doesn't matter if he deserves the money or not. The Lions simply cannot afford it. I'm still not convinced he walks next year because I'm not quite sure he'll have another great statistical year...I expect all his numbers (including his price) to come down this season, but thats just my opinion.

I would like to understand how we can't afford it, (and I have to believe that is the reason the FO couldn't get a deal done) but I need more proof than just taking your word for it. A lot of vet contracts are coming off the books, which will clear cap space, likely some will be replaced by cap friendly rookie contracts and minimum contracts (kicker). Also I can't really say I would be satisfied hoping Avril has a down year just to resign him.

Bottom line a young pass rusher is always a major priority and needs to be signed at market value (see list, and add Wake's deal). I don't know what Cliff was asking for but the 3yr 20M guarantee reported offered was a joke (if true), I gotta put some blame on the FO for this one. They have signed some good deals on the cheap lately and thought they could pull another one (Tulloch comes to mind) and it blew up in their face.

 

[lp4ever41]

I would like to understand how we can't afford it, (and I have to believe that is the reason the FO couldn't get a deal done) but I need more proof than just taking your word for it. A lot of vet contracts are coming off the books, which will clear cap space, likely some will be replaced by cap friendly rookie contracts and minimum contracts (kicker). Also I can't really say I would be satisfied hoping Avril has a down year just to resign him.

Bottom line a young pass rusher is always a major priority and needs to be signed at market value (see list, and add Wake's deal). I don't know what Cliff was asking for but the 3yr 20M guarantee reported offered was a joke (if true), I gotta put some blame on the FO for this one. They have signed some good deals on the cheap lately and thought they could pull another one (Tulloch comes to mind) and it blew up in their face.

Vet contracts coming off the books? Corey Williams...other than that, you're talking about cutting players like Nate and KVB, but remember that cap hits decrease the amount of savings you get.

But the bigger issue is this:

Cap hit this year: Cap hit next year:
Stafford $9 mil $20 mil
Suh $10 mil $18.5 mil

Thats about an extra $20 million dollars, or about 1/6 of the entire salary cap. Sure, one or both might restructure, but that only increases the problems in the future.

The Lions, right now, are projected at about $103 million for next year already.

http://thenetrat.com/salarycap.html

So, you have about $20 million in space. Assume Berry, Spiviey, and Young get RFA tendered (Young gets the highest, Berry and Spiviey get lesser tags), so now you're at around $15 million.

So now you need to resign basically the whole defense. Even if you let both LBs go, Delmas will cost around $6 million per year, Houston will cost $$$, you need 2 DEs and 2 DTs.

People like to suggest Dom, KVB, and Nate will be cut, but they don't seem to understand the way the FO feels about them. KVB will never, ever get cut. The Lions gave Nate an extra signing bonus last year, which tells me they have no plans to cut him soon either. And, for some reason, they love Dom. Doubt he gets cut, but even so, that $4 mil won't save Cliff.

Sure, they can move money into the future, but you can't do that forever. Fact is, teams can't simply re-sign everyone. You need to pick and choose your high-priced players. Lions already have 3.

 

[cheeno]

Vet contracts coming off the books? Corey Williams...other than that, you're talking about cutting players like Nate and KVB, but remember that cap hits decrease the amount of savings you get.

But the bigger issue is this:

Cap hit this year: Cap hit next year:
Stafford $9 mil $20 mil
Suh $10 mil $18.5 mil

Thats about an extra $20 million dollars, or about 1/6 of the entire salary cap. Sure, one or both might restructure, but that only increases the problems in the future.

The Lions, right now, are projected at about $103 million for next year already.

http://thenetrat.com/salarycap.html

So, you have about $20 million in space. Assume Berry, Spiviey, and Young get RFA tendered (Young gets the highest, Berry and Spiviey get lesser tags), so now you're at around $15 million.

So now you need to resign basically the whole defense. Even if you let both LBs go, Delmas will cost around $6 million per year, Houston will cost $$$, you need 2 DEs and 2 DTs.

People like to suggest Dom, KVB, and Nate will be cut, but they don't seem to understand the way the FO feels about them. KVB will never, ever get cut. The Lions gave Nate an extra signing bonus last year, which tells me they have no plans to cut him soon either. And, for some reason, they love Dom. Doubt he gets cut, but even so, that $4 mil won't save Cliff.

Sure, they can move money into the future, but you can't do that forever. Fact is, teams can't simply re-sign everyone. You need to pick and choose your high-priced players. Lions already have 3.

Avril>Williams, Dom, KVB, Nate, Hanson Combined. All are expendable. THAT is business, "love" isn't business, the way the FO "feels" isn't business.

 

[cheeno]

Best bargain: Cameron Wake. Sure, Wake just signed a four-year, $33.2 million extension that includes up to $15 million in sacks escalators. But for $7.665 million in cash and a $2.19 million cap number in 2012, Wake remains a steal. He turned 30 in January, and his sack total declined in 2011, but he was the most impactful player on the Miami Dolphins' defense a season ago and figures to be again this season. According to Football Outsiders, no player drew more holding penalties than the 13 that Wake did in 2011. Even more impressive is that eight of those were on passing plays, and no other NFL player had more than seven total holding penalties drawn.

Oh, and with Wake costing the Dolphins just $3.615 million in cash and $5.015 million in cap dollars in 2013, he'll be a steal next year, too.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000...ron-wake-remains-a-bargain-for-miami-dolphins

This couldn't have gotten done? I think we have to face it that MM went cheap and if he values those guys over Avril as you are suggesting he's nuts.

 

[lp4ever41]

Avril>Williams, Dom, KVB, Nate, Hanson Combined. All are expendable. THAT is business, "love" isn't business, the way the FO "feels" isn't business.

Disagree. Avril is one guy, thats five positions.

And when I say "feel", I don't mean emotions lol. I mean the FO believes they are very good players and are worth the money. They won't cut three vets to overpay Cliff (and it IS overpaying, market is heavily inflated with dumb contracts at DE).

 

[lp4ever41]

Best bargain: Cameron Wake. Sure, Wake just signed a four-year, $33.2 million extension that includes up to $15 million in sacks escalators. But for $7.665 million in cash and a $2.19 million cap number in 2012, Wake remains a steal. He turned 30 in January, and his sack total declined in 2011, but he was the most impactful player on the Miami Dolphins' defense a season ago and figures to be again this season. According to Football Outsiders, no player drew more holding penalties than the 13 that Wake did in 2011. Even more impressive is that eight of those were on passing plays, and no other NFL player had more than seven total holding penalties drawn.

Oh, and with Wake costing the Dolphins just $3.615 million in cash and $5.015 million in cap dollars in 2013, he'll be a steal next year, too.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000...ron-wake-remains-a-bargain-for-miami-dolphins

This couldn't have gotten done? I think we have to face it that MM went cheap and if he values those guys over Avril as you are suggesting he's nuts.

Dude, Avril was offered three years, $30 million. This guy got 4 years, $32 million. If Mayhew could've gotten Avril for that price, he would've done it in a heartbeat!!!

 

[cheeno]

Dude, Avril was offered three years, $30 million. This guy got 4 years, $32 million. If Mayhew could've gotten Avril for that price, he would've done it in a heartbeat!!!

$33.2M Guaranteed. $49 Mil extension. We offered (reportedly) $10 mil less.

 

[cheeno]

Disagree. Avril is one guy, thats five positions.

Value over replacement.

(and it IS overpaying, market is heavily inflated with dumb contracts at DE).

It is the arguably the most important position in the modern nfl behind QB, LT.

 

[Mitchrapp]

More than 10m would have been too much for Avril in my opinion. I know guys can get better but when I see 5 and 5.5 BS (before Suh) and 8.5 and 11 AS (after Suh) I assume Suh was a big ass reason his sacks increase. Granted, he started to play more, but its not just Avril alone getting those sacks.

 

[lp4ever41]

$33.2M Guaranteed. $49 Mil extension. We offered (reportedly) $10 mil less.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/s...ameron-wakes-contract-extension-show-a/nN3mL/

Wake's contract, originally reported as a four-year extension worth $49 million and $20 million guaranteed, is really a two-year extension that will pay him $17 million . He received a $7 million signing bonus, and his base salaries - $615,000 in 2012, $3.6 million in 2013 and $5.8 million in 2014 - are fully guaranteed.
But the last two years of his contract are contingent upon the Dolphins picking up a $3 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the 2015 league year. If the Dolphins don't want to pick up the option, they will either let Wake become a free agent or ask him to restructure his contract. It will be similar to the decision the Indianapolis Colts had to make with Peyton Manning this offseason and his $28 million bonus.


No way in hell Cliff would've taken this. BTW, even if he plays out the whole deal, its a 4 year, $49 million dollar EXTENSION!!! Key word is extension. His salary this year is less than one mil, so it was essentially a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal with $20 mil guaranteed. Cliff was offered the same annual salary and the same total guarantees for 3 years, and he said no. But thats beside the point, since Wake is not gonna see the last 2 years of this backloaded deal.

If Cliff would've accepted a deal like this, he'd be signed.

 

[cheeno]

So Wake got 2 yrs 17 and we offered 3 yrs 20? Still a bum deal for Cliff (and he is 5 years younger). However it goes to show how a well structured deal can minimize cap hit. They went cheap on Cliff, some agree (which you and they are entitled to) some don't, ie myself. I think they could have got a deal done, but put emphasis on keeping vets and signing cheap deals because of our cap space. IMO not the right place to go cheap.

 

[lp4ever41]

So Wake got 2 yrs 17 and we offered 3 yrs 20? Still a bum deal for Cliff (and he is 5 years younger). However it goes to show how a well structured deal can minimize cap hit. They went cheap on Cliff, some agree (which you and they are entitled to) some don't, ie myself. I think they could have got a deal done, but put emphasis on keeping vets and signing cheap deals because of our cap space. IMO not the right place to go cheap.

No, no. Wake will make $17 mil over the next THREE years. Avril would've had $30 mil.

"He received a $7 million signing bonus, and his base salaries - $615,000 in 2012, $3.6 million in 2013 and $5.8 million in 2014 - are fully guaranteed."

7 + 0.6 + 3.6 + 5.8 = 17

Over the next 3 years, Wake will make $17 million. After that, the Dolphins can cut him for about a $2 million cap hit.

3 years, $17 million or 3 years, $30 million? Why are we comparing these deals?

 

[cheeno]

Why are we comparing these deals?

I think Cliff is worth a 4 yr $30 mil G contract, based on market rate for young pass rushers, similar to what I thought Wake got. Others don't MM, didn't. I get that, but it's not a black and white issue to me.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I think Cliff is worth a 4 yr $30 mil G contract, based on market rate for young pass rushers, similar to what I thought Wake got. Others don't MM, didn't. I get that, but it's not a black and white issue to me.

Is that was what he was asking? I think Avril wanted a whole lot more than 4yr 30m.

 

[lp4ever41]

I think Cliff is worth a 4 yr $30 mil G contract, based on market rate for young pass rushers, similar to what I thought Wake got. Others don't MM, didn't. I get that, but it's not a black and white issue to me.

If its $30 million guaranteed, can we assume thats all in the first 3 years? If theres no added money over those 3 years, I would accept that. I think Cliff wants Charles Johnson/Tamba Hali money (he's said that before), which is too much IMO. If Cliff were happy with $10 mil per year, I think he'd be signed, but again, thats just my opinion.

But the biggest issue is that teams like KC and Carolina overpay their players, setting an overpriced market, and then other players expect to cash in the same way.

 

[lionsFTW]

The thing that sucks about all this is that we're one of like 3 teams total who Avril has this much value too (barring a 3/4 team going nuts thinking he can be an OLB).

Cliff thought he had us where he wanted us and Mayhew held his ground. Both men probably made the correct business decision and both will have to live with that decision going forward.

Cliff will most likely have another "good" year (barring injury) and his value will remain high, young guys who are proven pass rushers are rare on the open market. He will get paid and we will move on. Does it suck? Yup, but its not the end of the world.

 

[cheeno]

Is that was what he was asking? I think Avril wanted a whole lot more than 4yr 30m.

If its $30 million guaranteed, can we assume thats all in the first 3 years? If theres no added money over those 3 years, I would accept that. I think Cliff wants Charles Johnson/Tamba Hali money (he's said that before), which is too much IMO. If Cliff were happy with $10 mil per year, I think he'd be signed, but again, thats just my opinion.

But the biggest issue is that teams like KC and Carolina overpay their players, setting an overpriced market, and then other players expect to cash in the same way.

I read somewhere that the Lions offer 3 yr $20M guaranteed and that it was about $10M short, so this is all based on the assumption that these unsubstantiated reports were correct, who knows what the real figures were.

I agree with you on KC and Carolina, but I think some of that has to do with the upcoming cap floor I know both were way under.

 

[lionsFTW]

Plus as I've argued for a while, our system is pretty friendly to DE's. Its not like he's the only speed pass rusher alive. I mean you could probably get some level of production from guys like Aaron Maybin and Vernon Gholston with what we ask our DE's to do. Not saying I want those guys, just saying our system is unique to the position.