https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2022/03/31/five-for-friday-21/
FIVE FOR FRIDAY.
Totally Tigers
Most people in baseball look forward to the PECOTA Projections being released. Except for some of us, not this year.
It has historically been known as the most accurate prediction of how individual players and teams will perform for the coming year.
In case you are not familiar, PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorith. It is a sabermetric system, meaning that it is a subset of analytics but involves more complicated stats and is a product of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
Very simply, sabermetrics is a system that evaluates past performance and predicts future performance to determine a player?s contributions to his team.
Before I go any further, you?ll be happy to know that at no time during this blog will math be required.
So what did they say about the Tigers for 2022?
Surprisingly, they have the team losing 10 more games this year and occupying last place in the AL Central. They?re forecasting 67.3 wins, 94.7 losses and a W/L % of .415.
Whaaat?
Yeah, I don?t believe it either.
PECOTA was wrong last year. The Tigers finished in 3rd place and won 10 more games than projected, finishing with 77 wins and 85 losses for a .475 W/L%.
And that was without all the new signings for the 2022 season.
In fact, I?m going to make my own predictions. Detroit is going to improve on last year?s record. I won?t say where in the standings they will finish because that is more of a factor about how the other teams will perform, but I believe they will end up above .500 and be competitive within MLB to some degree.
I think somewhere in the mid-80?s for wins is a safe bet.
Here are my 5 reasons to support my argument:
