Stafford ranked 13th

[Mitchrapp]

Wow.....that's top not talent evaluation right there.......thanks for the insight.

You're welcome. Here to help.

 

[mhughes0021]

Stafford is top 16 in the league lumped in with cam and kaep imo. I dont think you spend #1 overall picks on the hopes he can be top 16 and win no playoff games. Argue whatever meaningless stat you want....we havent got what we paid for and in today's league....when you dont get what you pay for you need to make a change. Mayhew never will....which means were stuck with a shitty gm and a top 16 qb until someone above mayhem grows some nuts and cares.

 

[LKP]

Stafford is top 16 in the league lumped in with cam and kaep imo. I dont think you spend #1 overall picks on the hopes he can be top 16 and win no playoff games. Argue whatever meaningless stat you want....we havent got what we paid for and in today's league....when you dont get what you pay for you need to make a change. Mayhew never will....which means were stuck with a shitty gm and a top 16 qb until someone above mayhem grows some nuts and cares.

TDs (6th), first downs (6th passing) and 3rd down completion %(6th) are not meaningless. He's a good QB and has been screwed by injured weapons for 2 years now and fumble prone backs/weapons (16 and 15 fumbles (most not on Stafford) the last 2 years respectively). He's asked to do more than most QBs. Fuck anyone who doesn't think so. Plus give him 30 plus turnovers again (like shit game manager Wilson gets) too and he'll toss 40 TDs and everyone is going to eat so much fucking crow they'll be shitting crow for months. 6th best QB in the league with room to grow when his weapons don't fuck him over for 7 ints.

 

[mhughes0021]

TDs, first downs and 3rd down completion % are not meaningless. He's a good QB and has been screwed by injured weapons for 2 years now and fumble prone backs/weapons (16 and 15 fumbles (most not on Stafford) the last 2 years respectively). He's asked to do more than most QBs. Fuck anyone who doesn't think so. Plus givehim 30 plus turnovers again (like shit game manager Wilson gets) too and he'll toss 40 TDs and everyone is going to eat so much fucking crow they'll be shitting crow for months.

Except hes not asked to do much at all. Faces 6 man fronts with rolled coverage to calvin and still cant make teams pay.

 

[tomdalton22]

TDs (6th), first downs (6th passing) and 3rd down completion %(6th) are not meaningless. He's a good QB and has been screwed by injured weapons for 2 years now and fumble prone backs/weapons (16 and 15 fumbles (most not on Stafford) the last 2 years respectively). He's asked to do more than most QBs. Fuck anyone who doesn't think so. Plus give him 30 plus turnovers again (like shit game manager Wilson gets) too and he'll toss 40 TDs and everyone is going to eat so much fucking crow they'll be shitting crow for months. 6th best QB in the league with room to grow when his weapons don't fuck him over for 7 ints.

he is a slightly above average starting QB with potential to get better because of his age. Stop sugar coating it.

 

[LKP]

Except hes not asked to do much at all. Faces 6 man fronts with rolled coverage to calvin and still cant make teams pay.

Burleson and Pettigrew couldn't make them pay enough. Not big YAC guys. Completion % was fine to both of them by Stafford and the RBs. Then there were some injuries causing shit Durham to play. Durham can't beat single coverage.

And 6 man fronts are bad for QBs. More guys in coverage going against nickel most of the time. Makes it tougher for the QBs. It's like you know nothing about football.

 

[LKP]

he is a slightly above average starting QB with potential to get better because of his age. Stop sugar coating it.

Facts are facts. I didn't sugar coat anything. He's top 6.

 

[dubbsco]

He's not a top 6 QB. How about his QBR of 83.1, putting him near the bottom of the NFL? His pretty horrible TD/INT ratio? The fact that he hasn't won a playoff game in 5 years? You talk about all the talent on this roster, and yet they still haven't won in the post-season.

Why do you leave out the fact that he falls apart when the team needs him most? The entire last third of the season shows that. GB, Chicago, and Minnesota were saying, "Here Matt, take the division, we don't want it." And he says, "Nah, you guys have it."

 

[LKP]

He's top 6. Based on the whole season and his production (yards, TDs, 3rd downs). 7 of the ints weren't his fault. It skews the QBR and makes him look bad. I don't give a crap about QBR when ints aren't his fault. And ints is a volume stat like yards.

Stafford did enough to win the division. 3 TDs against Tampa, winning TD drive against Ravens, 27 points on the road at Pittsburgh plus more. Stafford won the division, blocked FGs the main reason we lost to Cincy and Zona and the Lions injured weapons, DEs and secondary lost it.

 

[dubbsco]

INT's are not a volume stat. If it was, then it would all be relative. Guys like Tom Brady wouldn't have a 2.70 ratio, Rodgers 3.62, Brees 2.05, Manning 2.24, Rivers, 2.13.

Matt Stafford has a 1.49 ratio. That's horrible. And I know you are all about the stats. You can't cover that one up.

 

[grandy]

Football Outsider Ranks for Stafford
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

(Minimum 100 snaps)

12th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards above Replacement)

7th in YAR (Yards above Replacement, does not factor in opponent)

4.9% DVOA, 15th in DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value over Average)

4402 Effective Yards
Compared to 4431 actual yards means he played about as well as standard stats would suggest


Advanced Football Analytics (a.k.a. AdvancedNFLStats)
http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

1.98 WPA, 14th in WPA (Win Probability Added)

74.4 EPA, 15th in EPA (Expected Points Added)

46.8% SR, 16th in SR (Success Rate)

5.5 AYPA, 11th in AYPA (Adjusted Yards Per Attempt)

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/QBviz.php
If you select "Stafford" and "2013" they have individual game EPAs

Stafford had an above average EPA against
1-Minnesota
2-Arizona
3-Washington
6-Cleveland
7-Cincinnati (best EPA, +18.59)
8-Dallas
11-Pittsburgh
13-Green Bay

The Lions record in these games: 5-3

Stafford had a below average (but positive) EPA against
5-Green Bay
10-Chicago
14-Philadelphia
15-Baltimore

The Lions record in these games: 1-3

Stafford had a negative EPA against
4-Chicago
12-Tampa Bay
16-NY Giants (worst EPA, -6.13)
17-Minnesota

The Lions record in these games: 1-3

This pretty much falls in line with what most analysts think...that Stafford is in the top half of the league, but is on the top 10 fringe.

I would like to see a reputable analyst claiming Stafford to be top 6 based on actual QB play not just potential.

 

[dubbsco]

Come on Grandy, where are the stats for "true INTs", weapons dropping passes, windy conditions, etc?

 

[grandy]

I've been looking around to see some more in-depth stats, unfortunately the few places that have them require some type of premium membership.

I did find this article on PFF

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/07/22/tracking-3rd-4th-down-qb-completion-rate/

Stafford was neither top 10 nor bottom 10 in 3rd and 4th down completion percentage
Stafford was neither top 10 nor bottom 10 in 3rd and 4th down completion percentage compared to overall percentage
Stafford was neither top 10 nor bottom 10 in success rate
Stafford had the 6th worst difference in 3rd and 4th down completion percentage compared to success rate

 

[dubbsco]

Pretty much all the research you did showed that he is a fringe top 10 guy. Which is what we all know.

 

[grandy]

Bunch of PFF links incoming

Rankings based on PFF Grade

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/16/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/

Stafford ranked 13th in Less than 2 seconds to throw

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/17/qbs-in-focus-by-route/

22nd in Quick Outs
6th in Crossing Routes
10th in Slants
7th in Outs
3rd in In Routes
22nd in Comebacks
5th in Hitches
10th in Corner Routes
4th in Post Routes
13th in Go Routes

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/18/qbs-in-focus-pass-distribution/

3rd in WR (By Alignment)
2nd in Outside WR (By Alignment)
3rd in Slot WR (By Alignment)
9th in TE (player)
19th in TE (inline)
8th in TE (slot)
4th in TE (wide)
14th in RB (player)
30th in RB (backfield)
1st in RB (slot)

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/06/qbs-in-focus-pass-direction/

10th in Throws Left
3rd in Throws Middle
9th in Throws Right

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/05/qbs-in-focus-pressure-and-the-blitz/

5th vs. No Pressure
20th vs. Pressure
29th vs. Blitz
2nd vs. No Blitz
4th vs. No Blitz No Pressure
8th vs. No Blitz, Pressure
13th vs. Blitz, No Pressure
36th vs. Blitz, Pressure

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/02/qbs-in-focus-by-down-and-distance/

2nd in 2nd & Long
24th in 2nd & Medium
21st in 2nd & Short
2nd in 3rd & 10+
29th in 3rd & Long
24th in 3rd & Medium
4th in 3rd & Short

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/07/01/qbs-in-focus-matthew-stafford/

Positives

• Graded at +10.1 on third down
• Showed well on 2nd-and-long (+5.4), 3rd-and-10+ (+4.0), and 3rd-and-short (+4.2).
• Third-highest grade on passes in the 1-to-10-yard range (+10.3).
• Graded at +3.0 on passes in the 31-to-40-yard range.
• Third-highest grade on passes between the numbers at +16.3.
• Fifth-highest grade in a clean pocket at +23.9.
• Ranked second in non-blitz situations at +19.3.
• Consistent across all drop-back types: 4-6 yards (+5.5), 7-8 yards (+7.0), 9 yards or more (+5.7).
• Graded best in 2.6-to-3.0-second range (+6.4) and 3.1-to-3.5-second range (+5.4).
• Second-highest grade when throwing to outside WR (by alignment) at +21.0.
• Third-highest grade when throwing to slot WR (by alignment) at +12.9.
• Among the league’s best when throwing to tight ends (all alignments) at +7.3.
• Showed well on outs (+6.4), ins (+6.8), hitches (+6.0), and post routes (+8.5).

Negatives

• Graded at -2.8 on passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air and -3.2 on passes thrown at least 40 yards.
• Graded at -4.3 when pressured, including -6.3 against blitz pressure.
• Graded at -3.7 when pressure came in two seconds or less and -2.0 on pressure that came in after 3.6 seconds.
• Worst routes were quick outs (-0.2) and comebacks (-0.4).

Tendencies

• Fifth-highest percentage of drop-backs from the shotgun or pistol at 85.5%.
• Faced pressure on only 28.9% of drop-backs, fourth-lowest in the league.
• Blitzed only 25.1% of the time, fifth-lowest percentage in the league and faced third-down blitzes only 27.7% of the time, third-lowest in the league.
• Highest percentage of throws between the numbers at 61.7%.
• Above the league average with 30.1% of drop-backs ending in two seconds or less and third-highest percentage in the 2.1-to-2.5-second range at 31.6%. Only 9.3% of drop-backs lasted at least 3.6 seconds, fourth-lowest in the league.
• 23.7% of passes went to running backs, above the league average of 19.6%. 3.9% of passes went to running backs in the slot, third-highest percentage in the league.
• Threw, by far, the highest percentage of slants at 13.9%, fourth-highest percentage of post routes at 9.2%, and the fifth-highest percentage of in routes at 8.1%.
• Threw the second lowest percentage of out routes at 5.9% and the fifth-lowest percentage of hitches at 11.1%.

 

[Mitchrapp]

That's some weird stuff..2nd/3rd and long, probably just throwing it to Calvin but 2nd/3rd medium he can't hit a thing.

Anyway, great data. But I say he's closer to average (15) than fringe top 10.

 

[grandy]

That's some weird stuff..2nd/3rd and long, probably just throwing it to Calvin but 2nd/3rd medium he can't hit a thing.

Anyway, great data. But I say he's closer to average (15) than fringe top 10.

Yeah, he's definitely in the middle somewhere. Jaws didn't have him ranked in his top 10 back in July.

I liked Stafford when he was drafted and I always thought Stafford had potential to be top 10, maybe even top 5. It just hasn't happened yet. Instead it's shaping up to look like a career full of excuses :lmao:.

 

[LKP]

64% to actual WRs. Shit to shit Durham who couldn't get open.

4th ranked per PFF in passing.

Stafford is a stud. He produces touchdowns and first downs and the ints clearly aren't on him if you watch them all.

 

[tomdalton22]

He's top 6. Based on the whole season and his production (yards, TDs, 3rd downs). 7 of the ints weren't his fault. It skews the QBR and makes him look bad. I don't give a crap about QBR when ints aren't his fault. And ints is a volume stat like yards.

Stafford did enough to win the division. 3 TDs against Tampa, winning TD drive against Ravens, 27 points on the road at Pittsburgh plus more. Stafford won the division, blocked FGs the main reason we lost to Cincy and Zona and the Lions injured weapons, DEs and secondary lost it.

He didn't win the division...he helped give it away with his shitty play down the stretch!

 

[LKP]

He didn't win the division...he helped give it away with his shitty play down the stretch!

He did win the division with his play. Even against Bucs (3 TDs plus that great throw to Calvin at the end), Ravens (should be game winner), Steelers (27 points plus fake FG), Cards and Benglas (plenty of points and blocked/missed field goals.

And had no help at Vikings and at Green Bay. No weapons, run game or pass pro those days.

Blizzard negated his abilities as it would any QB.

Stafford played like a 15-1 QB.