The Ebron Pick

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Just heard this on 105.1. The top ten teams combined don't have as much dead cap as Detroit.

I'm pretty sure that isn't true. We have about 17 million in dead money. More than 9 teams have over half that in dead money.

 

[dubbsco]

They meant the top 10 teams in terms of least dead money on the roster.

 

[inkfreq]

According to overthecap.com, which is usually pretty accurate, several teams have well over $10MM in dead money, with the Lions leading the way at $17MM.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

Ravens - $13MM
Chiefs- $11MM
Cowboys -$12MM
Patriots- $10MM
Eagles- $12MM

And theres a whole slew of other teams sitting between $7MM and $9MM.

There is no way that statement is accurate. We don't have as much in dead cap as the #2 and #3 teams combined, let alone the next 7 after that.

However, we do lead the lead in dead money, which still sucks.

 

[dubbsco]

What I think they meant is that they have more dead cap space than the top 10 teams with the LEAST amount of dead money.

IE, combine Bengals, Bears, Jags, the top 10 lowest dead cap space and it's still less than Detroit.

 

[grandy]

The dead cap figure is accurate but I think it's being exaggerated by the media in this town. Suh makes up a majority of that dead money, had he re-signed, the Lions would have about $7 mil in dead cap since Suh wouldn't technically count, which is middle of the pack. The rest is mostly taken up by Houston and Bush. Houston's contract was clearly a mistake that the Lions are still paying for, but Bush needed to go and they ended up saving a bit of cap space this year by cutting him.

Dead cap is a reality, but not necessarily a bad thing. Kicking the can down the road with Suh and signing Houston to a stupid contract were dumb moves, but it was worth it to cut Bush.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I hated the Ebron pick, but honestly didn't want anything to do with Aaron Donald there either. I thought he was too small (6'1" and 285lbs) to play DT in the NFL, and really just didn't see him as a viable option for us. I wanted us to take Lewan or one of the stud WRs available. I was wrong on Donald, but right (so far) on what I preferred over Ebron. I hope Ebron proves me wrong, but he's basically got to be a Pro Bowl TE for years to come in order to do so. I just don't see that happening, but WTF do I know?

 

[tbone413]

Maybe it needs to be spelled out for you...

E...B...R...O...N

Best case scenario for keeping Suh was going to be a monster contract. In that scenario, you don't keep an oft injured Fairley, you instead have AD in the bullpen with a rookie year learning from Suh and Fairley while getting solid reps to learn the game, and even start when Fairley inevitably is injured. In this way, you are being proactive about the future because, as GM, you understand the monster contract awaiting Suh if he stays and have a DT under a rookie cap contract to balance that, or if the worst case happens and both Suh and Fairley leave you have at least one R1 pick still in house at DT.

Granted there is always the possibility a pick will not be successful, but at least you are providing a legitimate observation of what is needed for the team's future, which means YOUR future because if the team does not win your ass is out the door. You already re-signed Pettigrew and if you are really wanting a TE, there are guys in later rounds you can pick up. Plus Fauria is not the worst TE in history.

Even if he picked OBJ as insurance for the future projection that CJ is peaking so you need to start grooming his replacement, that would have been something.

But EBRON? WTF?????? Simply because your OC who is in his first year as an OC says he needs him? That is the absolutely most retarded aspect of the entire thing, that they would listen to Lombardi and give him his wish. Why not Austin? Why not Caldwell? Why not be the GM and tell all of them that this team is selecting X because he is a difference maker and insurance for the future.

Having two R1 TEs is the dumbest thing EVER. E-V-E-R. Not sure how much more this needs to be rehashed. It was a stupid pick then, and it will be Mayhew's downfall more than not being able to keep Suh who didn't want to be here anyway. Either OBJ or AD, either pick would have provided something to say Mayhew understands the team and what is happening. Ebron means he is a fucking clueless tool.

Then there is the aspect of not being able to draft well enough or be good enough as a management group to retain two entire classes from back to back years worth of draft picks. Seriously????? How often does that happen within 5 years of those classes being selected? Well, if you suck at drafting and negotiating contracts in FA, apparently it can happen. INEXCUSABLE=TERMINATION OF EMPLOYMENT=MAYHEW.

I tend to agree with this....Drafting Ebron was a terrible pick no matter how you slice it. I literally couldnt believe my eyes when I saw them announce that pick...

Last year was an absolute debacle for Mayhew and Co....I loved the Tate signing, but basically everything else was garbage, and especially the Draft.

I wont lie, I didnt want them to go offensive at all, I was hoping for some secondary help, but if you would have told me to list the LEAST important position we needed to draft, I honestly would have said TE...as we had just resigned our big 1st round blocking TE (who actually sucked ass at blocking this year), and had a solid Red Zone threat TE as well. So the fact that he used the first pick on a TE that had DROP ISSUES (which was the main beef with Pettigrew) is just insane.

In addition, I am not positive on the timing, but I think at that time they had either already declined Fairleys 5th year or were pretty damn sure they were going to do so in a few weeks.
Which, I will never understand that move either, as they knew Suh was going to be a free agent this year, and would more than likely demand an ass-ton of money to keep.

Knowing Suh was going to be their Top priority this year, it makes ZERO sense to decline his option....best case scenario is Fairley gets his head out of his ass and plays like a top 10 pick (which was their intent I believe.). Fairley then gets a big offer from other teams in the offseason and the Lions cant match, having (hopefully) spent their money on resigning Suh.

Worst Case scenario is that declining his option doesnt do anything to motivate Fairley, and he has a sub-par season. He holds a grudge against the Lions Org. and refuses to resign with them, regardless of how much hes offered, and leaves for another team. They then fail to sign Suh and are now down shit creek without a paddle.

Well, look where we are now, the season/offseason has played out damn near the worst possible way. Fairley didnt have a terrible year, but he was hurt for half of it, including when we needed him the most, and played Just good enough where the Lions were unable to match any offers for him.

If they had simply kept him under contract this year, you would still have 1 top end talent DT under contract, and you could now focus on resigning him (If you wanted) for a reasonable price, or after seeing how the Suh situation played out, ship him off at this years trade deadline for a few picks.

Its just an absolute debacle of mis-management and over arrogance. It makes me think that both Mayhew and Lewand were so fucking positive that they were going to sign Suh, that they literally didnt care what happened with Fairley, and didnt have any plan in place to replace either one. How a GM can be so fucking delusional and have no backup plan makes me sick. Ive been a Mayhew supporter (in the sense that I dont think he has done enough to get fired) for a while now, but he has really pissed me off the past 12 months, and his ass better be on the hotseat....

 

[LKP]

We got Ngata for peanuts. Offseason not over either. Lions have a top 5 defense still. Relax. But of course people underrate our DEs and back 7 contributions to that top 2 defense in 2014. It wasn't solely Suh. Suh has had good years when the Lions had mediocre defense. Back 7 support and coaching turned the corner for our defense. And some secondary health with three best players.

Year 2 offensive improvement will happen. Give Ebron year 2 and 3 before you judge that pick. 11-5 with him doing little.

 

[dubbsco]

I don't totally agree with "peanuts." 4th and 5th round picks are valuable depth and sometimes starts for teams that actually know how to draft.

And the fact that Mayhew sucks at drafting doesn't mean they aren't valuable picks.

 

[LKP]

I don't totally agree with "peanuts." 4th and 5th round picks are valuable depth and sometimes starts for teams that actually know how to draft.

And the fact that Mayhew sucks at drafting doesn't mean they aren't valuable picks.

We got a 7th. They have the same success rate as 5th rounders.

So lost a 4th. For Ngata, I'll take that all day every day and twice on Sundays

 

[jared]

We got a 7th. They have the same success rate as 5th rounders.

So lost a 4th. For Ngata, I'll take that all day every day and twice on Sundays

I agree that the trade for Ngata was a good one.

But your "logic" never ceases to amaze me. We didn't lose a 4th. We lost a 4th and 5th, and got a 7th back. If they have the same success rate, try trading a 7th for a 5th straight up.

 

[LKP]

I agree that the trade for Ngata was a good one.

But your "logic" never ceases to amaze me. We didn't lose a 4th. We lost a 4th and 5th, and got a 7th back. If they have the same success rate, try trading a 7th for a 5th straight up.

Using a 7th and 5th has the same success rate. You want us to use them right. We lost one net pick that matters. A 4th.

I'd give up picks 4-7 for Ngata.

 

[brewer229]

Using a 7th and 5th has the same success rate. You want us to use them right. We lost one net pick that matters. A 4th.

I'd give up picks 4-7 for Ngata.

So if you had two 5ths you would trade them for 3 7ths?

 

[LKP]

So if you had two 5ths you would trade them for 3 7ths?

Yes. And I'd give the 4th for Ngata.

 

[tomdalton22]

recent 5th round picks

Caraun Reid
Sam Martin
Taihir Whitehead
Chris Greenwood

Recent 7th round picks

Nate Freese
Michael Williams
Brandon Hepburn
Travis Lewis

 

[inkfreq]

recent 5th round picks

Caraun Reid
Sam Martin
Taihir Whitehead
Chris Greenwood

Recent 7th round picks

Nate Freese
Michael Williams
Brandon Hepburn
Travis Lewis

Whitehead finally came into his own last season, and played very well IMO. Reid has promise, but didn't get a chance to flash last season, and who knows if he will ever amount to anything?

Martin is a very good young punter, but we really could have gotten him later in the draft, or as an undrafted most likely. Not many punters get drafted, let alone in the 5th round.

Other than that, not a name on that list worth a damned.

I would rather have one year of Ngata that the entire remaining list put together for their entire careers.

When you put the list in perspective that way (bearing in mind other teams often get a lot more from those same picks) I am totally happy with the trade no matter how it works out.

 

[dubbsco]

Of course the trade worked out well, but it's not fair to say 4th and 5th round picks are worthless. Teams that know what they are doing find value in this rounds. Those are guys that can start or earn valuable time. And I'm not sure in what world 7th round picks are more successful than 5th round picks. If you can find some stat to back that up, I'll buy. But like another guy said, try and get a 7th for a 5th.

Again, just because the Lions are pitiful at drafting doesn't mask the fact that those picks are important.

 

[inkfreq]

I don't think the rate of success is exactly higher for 7th rounders than it is for 5th rounders, but it's actually not much lower.

http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

This site gives a pretty good visual graf representing bust rate by pick number.

This year the 5th round of the draft begins with pick #141, which changes every year due to compensatory picks. That bring with it a (roughly) 80% bust rate according to the second chart, which measures in variable like early expectations, and the number of years they play as a contributing factor.

The 7th round begins with pick #216 which is right around an 85% bust rate. Those are not exact rates, because the chart doesn't clearly break it down per pick, and you have to kind of guess a bit as to where you numbers are.

But the basics suggest that the difference in percentage between a 5th rounder and a 7th rounder in bust rate is about 5%.

Either way, the 5th round picks have a higher success rate in the NFL, but not enough of a higher rate to quibble over by any means.

 

[LKP]

And talking 80% and 85% bust rates for all those picks. That's almost worthless.

4th round for Ngata. It's a great move. the alternative was overpaying for Fairley. Any other FA DT realistically left is nowhere close to Ngata.

Lions can have a good defense with Ngata, our DEs and our back 7 plus Austin running the show. That's all I care about. We'll add a DT and some CB help. Offseason not over.

 

[zyxt9]

Interesting info ink...especially:

Finally, see pick 148 on the graph (highlighted in blue). In the past 50 years, only two players picked 148 have started more than one year and played in at least 40 games. Best of luck to Chris Greenwood*of the Detroit Lions, the 148th selection of the 2012 draft. According to the data, you are the true Mr. Irrelevant.

Guess the deck was stacked against him from the beginning.