The Ebron Pick

[tomdalton22]

And talking 80% and 85% bust rates for all those picks. That's almost worthless.

4th round for Ngata. It's a great move. the alternative was overpaying for Fairley. Any other FA DT realistically left is nowhere close to Ngata.

Lions can have a good defense with Ngata, our DEs and our back 7 plus Austin running the show. That's all I care about. We'll add a DT and some CB help. Offseason not over.

To be fair, the Lions bust rate is much higher, so it was even less of a gamble!

 

[zyxt9]

Interesting info ink...especially:

Finally, see pick 148 on the graph (highlighted in blue). In the past 50 years, only two players picked 148 have started more than one year and played in at least 40 games. Best of luck to Chris Greenwood*of the Detroit Lions, the 148th selection of the 2012 draft. According to the data, you are the true Mr. Irrelevant.

Guess the deck was stacked against him from the beginning.

Lol...upon further review, Panthers had #148 both in 2013 and 2014. Apparently Klein and Benwikere are both playing well. So Greenwood might be the last in that long string of bad luck at #148.

Sounds about right, doesn't it. Lol

 

[inkfreq]

Interesting info ink...especially:

Finally, see pick 148 on the graph (highlighted in blue). In the past 50 years, only two players picked 148 have started more than one year and played in at least 40 games. Best of luck to Chris Greenwood*of the Detroit Lions, the 148th selection of the 2012 draft. According to the data, you are the true Mr. Irrelevant.

Guess the deck was stacked against him from the beginning.

Haha.. this is sad to admit, but I bookmarked that page in 2012, and have been just itching for a reason to use it in a discussion on our board ever since.

I am a nut for analytic data. But you'd be surprised how such a cool piece of data never seems to be applicable to any discussion on this board. I mean, as football fans, we've never until now had a real conversation about the statistical success rate of draft picks by round? Really?

I was so happy today when I got to bust out that bookmark and make a point.

 

[schles192]

Haha.. this is sad to admit, but I bookmarked that page in 2012, and have been just itching for a reason to use it in a discussion on our board ever since.

I am a nut for analytic data. But you'd be surprised how such a cool piece of data never seems to be applicable to any discussion on this board. I mean, as football fans, we've never until now had a real conversation about the statistical success rate of draft picks by round? Really?

I was so happy today when I got to bust out that bookmark and make a point.

Hey! you can't reference a link I posted in a different thread, you have to use google to find it just like I did. haha. We had a bust rate discussion before (briefly), back in 2012, the talk was about signing revis but turned to trading CJ because his cap hit would be too high so we wouldn't be able to resign Suh. Its kind of a funny thread to look back on now that we know how thing played out:

http://www.detroitsportsforum.com/showthread.php?t=10211&highlight=datascopeanalytics&page=3

It?s not really an accurate portrayal as it only looks at pro bowl selections. The other rounds must be in the single digi's if you use the pro bowl as your barometer. I found an article that has a bust as a marginal role player that has limited game experience and contributes little to no value to an NFL franchise, but it uses a graph so my numbers aren't 100%.

RD %
1 20
2 30
3 50
4 60
5 65
6 70
7 73

But if you change the criteria to if a player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career

RD %
1 35
2 50
3 70
4 75
5 80
6 83
7 86

 

[inkfreq]

Hey! you can't reference a link I posted in a different thread, you have to use google to find it just like I did. haha. We had a bust rate discussion before (briefly), back in 2012, the talk was about signing revis but turned to trading CJ because his cap hit would be too high so we wouldn't be able to resign Suh. Its kind of a funny thread to look back on now that we know how thing played out:

http://www.detroitsportsforum.com/showthread.php?t=10211&highlight=datascopeanalytics&page=3

It?s not really an accurate portrayal as it only looks at pro bowl selections. The other rounds must be in the single digi's if you use the pro bowl as your barometer. I found an article that has a bust as a marginal role player that has limited game experience and contributes little to no value to an NFL franchise, but it uses a graph so my numbers aren't 100%.

RD %
1 20
2 30
3 50
4 60
5 65
6 70
7 73

But if you change the criteria to if a player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career

RD %
1 35
2 50
3 70
4 75
5 80
6 83
7 86

SON OF A BITCH!

I sat on that link for years, and it was already posted here?!?!

Wow Schles, hell of a good dig up man. Looking at that old thread made me realize one thing...

Not a single person on this board has changed a bit in two years. All you would have to do is change a couple of names in the posts, and that would look EXACTLY like an active thread today.

Love seeing the comparisons between Suh and Ngata, given how that all turned out.

 

[Mitchrapp]

SON OF A BITCH!

I sat on that link for years, and it was already posted here?!?!

Wow Schles, hell of a good dig up man. Looking at that old thread made me realize one thing...

Not a single person on this board has changed a bit in two years. All you would have to do is change a couple of names in the posts, and that would look EXACTLY like an active thread today.

Love seeing the comparisons between Suh and Ngata, given how that all turned out.

I'm more calm..

 

[schles192]

its a good link to have. Funny thing is i didn't even click on the link it was the greenwood reference that made me go wtf i remember that. Its funny how the same conversation can be had over so many years. Now with Suh gone we shouldn't be in cap hell going forward.....for at least a year or two.

 

[zyxt9]

SON OF A BITCH!

I sat on that link for years, and it was already posted here?!?!

Wow Schles, hell of a good dig up man. Looking at that old thread made me realize one thing...

Not a single person on this board has changed a bit in two years. All you would have to do is change a couple of names in the posts, and that would look EXACTLY like an active thread today.

Love seeing the comparisons between Suh and Ngata, given how that all turned out.

Yeah...and one of them Ngata himself a ring, the other Suh didn't.