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Tigers 2021-2022 Free Agents Trades Rule 5 Arbitration Moves

sggatecl said:
To be fair, when Miggy's contract started in 2016, at age 33 he wasn't putting up prime Miggy numbers either. The Tigers literally started paying/rewarding Miggy's amazing career as his career began to decline.
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The huge mistake the Tigers did was negotiate an extension for Cabrera when he still had 2 years left on his deal...and right after back to back MVPs. So stupid!
 
sggatecl said:
To be fair, when Miggy's contract started in 2016, at age 33 he wasn't putting up prime Miggy numbers either. The Tigers literally started paying/rewarding Miggy's amazing career as his career began to decline.

Correa is 27. I don't think that's a fair comparison at all but in your defense I keep seeing it over and over.

Superstars get 10+ year deals now, it is what it is. If you don't think Correa is worth it, that's your opinion and you're not alone. But you're also saying you're comfortable never bringing a Trout/Tatis/Harper to Detroit ever again.

Imagine if in 5-7 years, Tork and/or Greene have blown up and are on that level. You saved money in 2021 by signing Baez to a short deal and making it easier to keep these guys. What's the point if you don't plan on paying them anyways?
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That was just a bad Ilitch deal. As far as Trout/Tatis/Harper thing, well yeah. Trout as great as he is made the playoffs what once, twice? Harper? Tatis is young but it prevents so much especially Detroit is a middle market club. Baez, Rodriquez total is less than 220m. We could still add a 100+ mill guy and you get 3 for the price of Correa.
 
Mitchrapp said:
That was just a bad Ilitch deal. As far as Trout/Tatis/Harper thing, well yeah. Trout as great as he is made the playoffs what once, twice? Harper? Tatis is young but it prevents so much especially Detroit is a middle market club. Baez, Rodriquez total is less than 220m. We could still add a 100+ mill guy and you get 3 for the price of Correa.
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I guess the question I have is, what are your expectations for what Detroit's payroll should be? While I understand Chris won't spend like his father, maybe I'm still expecting too much.

If Detroit is a middle market club, they've got to be on the upper tier, right?
 
sggatecl said:
I guess the question I have is, what are your expectations for what Detroit's payroll should be? While I understand Chris won't spend like his father, maybe I'm still expecting too much.

If Detroit is a middle market club, they've got to be on the upper tier, right?
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Depends where they are in the rebuild I assume. Promising year last season but are we on the rise maybe too soon to know. I'm honestly surprised they spent this much.

If you just count the catcher SP, and SS its 130m at the moment minus the adds and subtracts from last years roster.

I think we're 140m max team 120m min but just a guess.
 
In the MGorosh plate discipline guide .. if you can do nothing to Javy Baez hitting profile besides convince him to walk one more time every other week or 13 more walks a season OBP went from .319 to .341

This paragraph from The Athletic MLB tells you all you need to know why the Tigers are thrilled to have Javy B?ez in the fold.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFeJCfJWQAgRuhQ?format=jpg&name=large

And possibly his Silver Slugger, Fielding Bible, and Gold Glove awards. Maybe the NL MVP runner up, .800+ OPS 3 of the last 4 years, and 4.4 avg WAR over his career have something to do with it too.
 
https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/javier-baez-tigers-deal
Javier B?ez, Tigers finalize 6-year deal.
Tigers official site

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/1/22812444/detroit-tigers-javier-baez-reaction-roundtable
BYB Roundtable: Reactions to the Javier B?ez signing.
Let?s say we?re cautiously more or less ok, but not thrilled with this either.
BYBTB

https://www.freep.com/videos/sports...ez-video-detroit-tigers-shortstop/8828822002/
A look at the career of Javier Baez, new Detroit Tigers shortstop.
What does Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez bring to the team, after signing
Freep

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/tigers-sign-javier-baez.html
Tigers Sign Javier Baez.
MLBTR
 
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sggatecl said:
It was from an old article I had bookmarked last year when I first started paying attention to the upcoming shortstop market.

https://sportsnaut.com/chicago-cubs-rumor-javier-baez-contract/




Original tweets and reports I read said 7/160. 6/140 doesn't change my opinion at all but thanks for the correction.

Baez has terrible contact numbers and for a guy entering his 30s soon, that's the one stat you don't want to be your weakness as your bat speed starts to go.

It was a small sample size, but we saw what can happen in 2020 if his power numbers can?t make up for his plate discipline, and it is ugly. A .203/.238/.360, good for a 59 OPS+, 55 WRC+ and a .256 wOBA.

Feel free to be a dick and explain how those numbers aren't accurate or not important.



Even if they'd signed Correa to a deal worth 10/300, they're still below league average in payroll. And when you consider Miggy is off the books in 2 years, it's even more irrelevant. This narrative that they won't be able to give new contracts to the young guys is absurd.

When our young core is eligible for arbitration/free agency:

Skubal - 2024 / 2027
Mize - 2023 / 2027
Manning - 2025 / 2028
Paredes - 2024 / 2027
Turnbull - 2022 / 2025
Torkleson/Greene - Because they haven't even logged MLB time, we don't even have dates on these guys. You can assume pretty safely 2026-2028 for arbitration and 2029 for free agency.
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It's clear you don't like the signing and you're certainly entitled to an opinion as such, it just felt like an intentional misrepresentation of his stats. And again if you're going to hone in on 2020, then by all means ask yourself how Correa is worth 350 million or so at a .703 OPS.


As to the above in relation to the future potential extensions that's the point...if you commit 30 to 35 million on a SS that at that point will be approaching his mid 30s you then have that much less to spend on your younger core. I would absolutely expect Detroit to spend to retain a core (at a realistic cost) that is much more than they would even spend this upcoming year provided the team is a contender. We have no idea how this will come together. The Tigers however are planning as if all their home grown talent will pan out....as they should.
 
The breakdown on the deal: Can opt out after '23.

$20 million in 2022.

$22 million in 2023.

$25 million in 2024.

$25 million in 2025.

$24 million in 2026.

$24 million in 2027.
 
Baez isn't even in the top 15 MLB SS, let alone top 10. An ex-Tiger, Willy Adames is probably in the top 5, especially now that he is out of Tropicana Field.

Adames Career

Tropicana = .217 BAVG .275 OBP .341 SLG .616 OPS 55.8 RC/650

Away from Trop = .289 BAVG .364 OBP .508 SLG .872 OPS 106.9 RC/650


Comparisons:

Last 3 Years Away

Adames (26) 715 PA .374 OBP .540 SLG .914 OPS 119.1 RC/650

Seager (27) 651 PA .367 OBP .498 SLG .865 OPS 106.8 RC/650

Correa (27) 620 PA .340 OBP .481 SLG .821 OPS 95.0 RC/650


Galvis (32) 624 PA .317 OBP .450 SLG .767 OPS 80.7 RC/650

Goodrum (30) 493 PA .329 OBP .438 SLG .766 OPS 84.7 RC/650

DeJong (28) 611 PA .306 OBP .459 SLG .765 OPS 78.6 RC/650

Baez (29) 677 PA .294 OBP .464 SLG .758 OPS 80.9 RC/650

Story (29) 740 PA .311 OBP .441 SLG .752 OPS 84.8 RC/650

Iglesias (32) 630 PA .333 OBP .413 SLG .746 OPS 79.8 RC/610

So we let Niko go to sign someone very similar to him both offensively and defensively, at least based on past production.


Fielding Last 3 Years

DeJong 7.4 UZR/150
Story 5.9 UZR/150
Baez 4.6 UZR/150
Goodrum 4.4 UZR/150
Correa 2.2 UZR/150
Adames 1.8 UZR/150

Iglesias 0.4 UZR/150
Galvis -0.4 UZR/150

Seager -8.7 UZR/150


Taking offense and defense into consideration, metrically speaking, Seager and Correa are both at least 2 wins per season better than Baez and about 1 win better than Story. And, using the same numbers, Goodrum would have been 2-3 wins better than any of the other SS used by DET over the last 3 years. They just never stuck Goodrum there permanently. And yes, that would mean Baez and/or Story is also at least 2 wins better than what DET has used at SS outside of Goodrum, but so might Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias.

BLUF, aside from signing/getting the likes of Simmons, Andrus, Ahmed or Gregorius, anyone else would have been an upgrade. But at what cost? $20+ Mil a year is a lot of money to just improve by 2 wins. To me, 6 years at $90 Mil sounds more reflective of the value.

I am not a fan of long term contracts for people in general, unless the vast majority of the years are covering the player's peak years (26-32) or under. Additionally, with very rare exceptions, a player is who he is by age 25. So Baez isn't going to start walking more unless a huge batting stance change is made (ala Luis Gonzalez).
 
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