Tigers interested in + now with agreement in place for Joakim Soria

[SouthOfMackinac]

Good article about the Pirates wanting Soria along with some advanced metrics on him

http://rumbunter.com/2014/07/21/pirates-trade-rumors-joakim-soria-makes-sense/

 

[Rebbiv]

The Sabermetric stats for runs above average, baserunning both running and stealing and defensive zone rating stats. This is compared to the "replacement player" which can be calculated a couple of ways.

What is a replacement player? The weight of stolen bases is high to me. I don't claim it to be perfect. I don't claim any stat to be perfect because of the innate variablity of live sports. We saw the guy hit two home runs off of Scherzer the other day. No stats pointed to that happening. Shit happens.

It's a good little stat for comparing players of equal positions. I go in for looking at splits and specific batter / pitcher matchups but you can't build a roster like that. It's just mental masturbation at the end of the day. A bunch of "what-ifs?"

I think DD will make a move for a premiere reliever in the next 10 days. I'll buy anyone that says they won't 4 wings at a Metro-Detroit BWW if he doesn't.

For pitchers, it uses FIP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

from the above page:

FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher?s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season?s worth of innings.


In 2013 WAR for AL Relievers

Smyly 1.9
Benoit 1.6


In 2014, Miller has a 1.4 in half a season. Does that mean a half a season of Miller is about as good as a full 2013 of Smyly and/or Benoit?

 

[spockmaster]

Doesn't that validate my point? The constant comment is "relievers are easy to find" yet nobody has them. The price is sky high because teams need them. That's not me (or writers) saying it - it is MLB General Managers. We can have all the sabermetrics and intuition we want but they ultimately determine what REALLY happens everyday.

Eh, not necessarily. Most teams are shopping around (because why not, you can always add more piecesif you get a good deal), but I'd bed not many teams are seriously shopping. Likely only a handful of the 15 teams need one badly enough to trade and/or are seriously enough in the race to part with pieces for a RP, but each team just inquiring whether or not they actually intend to get a RP will drive the price up for everyone else. Some teams do it solely to drive the price up for rival teams.

 

[Rebbiv]

Andrew Miller
2012
LH .245 OBP / .184 SLG / .429 OPS
RH .373 OBP / .456 SLG / .829 OPS

2013
LH .339 OBP / .386 SLG / .725 OPS
RH .319 OBP / .207 SLG / .526 OPS

2014
LH .217 OBP / .232 SLG / .449 OPS
RH .280 OBP / .238 SLG / .517 OPS

Since the beginning of 2013 I don't see a LOOGY at all. Thanks for making me affirm my belief. It was even better because I had to work for it.

So 68 innings is a good enough sample for you? Keep in mind Drew Smyly threw 76 in relief for last year alone

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

For pitchers, it uses FIP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

from the above page:

FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher?s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season?s worth of innings.


In 2013 WAR for AL Relievers

Smyly 1.9
Benoit 1.6


In 2014, Miller has a 1.4 in half a season. Does that mean a half a season of Miller is about as good as a full 2013 of Smyly and/or Benoit?

With how good Miller has been against RH and LH hitters this season, yes. Smyly had his issues at times last year as did Benoit. Miller has had 6 Meltdowns this season but his shutdowns more than make up for it.

Smyly 2013 19 SD 7 MD
Benoit 2013 29 SD 4 MD

Man Benoit was good. I wanted him to be kept and I'd rather have him over Miller.

How do you feel about WPA?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

So 68 innings is a good enough sample for you? Keep in mind Drew Smyly threw 76 in relief for last year alone

Two seasons of selective use is enough for me. Yes. Mechanics and ability changes from season to season. I see in the numbers a pitcher that has changed approach against RH batters.

 

[Rebbiv]

With how good Miller has been against RH and LH hitters this season, yes. Smyly had his issues at times last year as did Benoit. Miller has had 6 Meltdowns this season but his shutdowns more than make up for it.

Smyly 2013 19 SD 7 MD
Benoit 2013 29 SD 4 MD

Man Benoit was good. I wanted him to be kept and I'd rather have him over Miller.

How do you feel about WPA?

I am a fan of both WPA and WPA/LI. WPA/LI is the better comparative stat.

 

[Rebbiv]

Two seasons of selective use is enough for me. Yes. Mechanics and ability changes from season to season. I see in the numbers a pitcher that has changed approach against RH batters.

For me, there isn't enough of a sample rate for Miller to draw conclusions. He is having a great year. I will not deny that. I just don't see players changing who they are after the age of 25/26 and baseball history has proven that.

 

[gotime909]

For me, there isn't enough of a sample rate for Miller to draw conclusions. He is having a great year. I will not deny that. I just don't see players changing who they are after the age of 25/26 and baseball history has proven that.

Could be a little different for him since he didn't move to the bullpen full time until he was 27. How that guy remained a starter for as long as he did is mind blowing.

 

[gotime909]

Was just reading an article that the Marlins could be selling again soon. What do you guys think about Steve Cishek?

Wonder if we gave them the entire Erie roster if they'd throw in Stanton?

 

[spockmaster]

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2014/7/21/5924973/tigers-trade-rumors-antonio-bastardo


Wouldn't be horrible. His consistency, K rate, and lack of platoon splits are nice, but his walks are troublesome.

 

[gotime909]

Yanks got Headley.

 

[Thumb]

Yanks got Headley.

Pretty cheap too.

 

[Rebbiv]

Yanks got Headley.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/sto...dley-traded-new-york-yankees-san-diego-padres

 

[Rebbiv]

Pretty cheap too.

A questionable ML 3B and a long shot Minor League Starter

 

[Thumb]

A questionable ML 3B and a long short Minor League Starter

Who's already 27 years old.


Cashman landed Headley with smoke and mirrors basically.

 

[Rebbiv]

Who's already 27 years old.


Cashman landed Headley with smoke and mirrors basically.

At that rate, they should have tried for Seth Smith and Benoit while they were at it.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Who's already 27 years old.


Cashman landed Headley with smoke and mirrors basically.

The demand for overpaid 3B just isn't what it used to be it seems.
Headley
.296 OBP / .355 SLG / .651 OPS

22 BB 73K

A sure harbinger of the apocalypse, the Padres gave the Yankees money to get the deal done (1M).

 

[Rebbiv]

The demand for overpaid 3B just isn't what it used to be it seems.
Headley
.296 OBP / .355 SLG / .651 OPS

22 BB 73K

A sure harbinger of the apocalypse, the Padres gave the Yankees money to get the deal done (1M).

2012-Present Away (26 Qualify with 500 PA)

1st in BB%

8th in OPS (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

8th in wOBA (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

8th in wRC+ (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

10th in ISO (9th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)



9th in UZR/150


A solid Top 10 3rd Baseman, who has suffered from injuries the last couple of years. When healthy, he is sure to be a top 5.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

2012-Present Away (26 Qualify with 500 PA)

1st in BB%

8th in OPS (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

8th in wOBA (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

8th in wRC+ (7th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)

10th in ISO (9th if you remove Miguel Cabrera)



9th in UZR/150


A solid Top 10 3rd Baseman, who has suffered from injuries the last couple of years. When healthy, he is sure to be a top 5.

I'll say I don't see three solid years of data to support that. But you like him so that's good. I see a guy who had a fluke year and is the player he is going to be.

But he is one of your top 5 third baseman

Beltre, Chisenhall, Frazier, Wright, Seager, Sandoval, Longoria, Carpenter, Rendon, McGhee I would take before him but everyone entitled in their opinion.

It's funny though - you used 2011 when pulling up Andrew Miller's stats but this time you leave 2011 out. If you take his fluke season of 2012 out you see the player the Yankees are getting. I won't argue that he makes the Yankees better because the left side of their infield has been a disappointment.