Tigers interested in + now with agreement in place for Joakim Soria

[spockmaster]

Well, DD should definitely swallow pride for that, he definitely should have resigned Benoit in the offseason and now he's paying the price for it.

As far as the disconnect I got confused cuz you said that but then went on to disagree with yourself lol. As far as Miller goes, I'd say hes definitly better than Coke, but Hardy is still a bit of an unknown. I think he could be good if given the chance, but he could also flop. Coke should just be gone. He's still on the team only because DD has tunnel vision on his mid-90s fastball and thinks that solves all problems.

I honestly just dont trust Miller to keep this up given his workload so far and career numbers. Pitchers rarely suddenly cut their walk rate more than in half and maintain it for long. I see a lot of similarities between him this year and Veras last year, and look how Veras worked out for us and where he's at now...back to sucking. If we got any Boston reliever, I'd want Uehara, but he's likely to be way overpriced.



As far as names go, I would probably start with a package of Thompson and Moya or Travis and go from there with a few other mid-level prospects depending on what SD wants/needs. Maybe even Perez would be expendable, SD needs middle infield prospects from what I read.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I am just 100% opposed to overpaying for a reliever, especially a rental having a career year (ie, Miller this year and Veras last year.)

Veras sucked last year. You could see it from his first outings as a Tiger. He was the best on a bad team when they got him.

Look at Andrew Miller's three year numbers - except his BB/9 (which is good this year) his numbers show that he has been difficult for RH and LH batters to hit since 2012. He has 15 shutdowns this season with 6 meltdowns. The only Tiger with more SD's is Chamberlain at 18. Nobody else on the Tigers has double digits. Brad Ziegler leads baseball with 27 SD.

In fairness - Veras had 25 SD's last season and had 30 in 2011. He has 0 this year. It is still up to a guy to throw the ball and a guy to hit it and someone to catch it.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Well, DD should definitely swallow pride for that, he definitely should have resigned Benoit in the offseason and now he's paying the price for it.

As far as the disconnect I got confused cuz you said that but then went on to disagree with yourself lol.



As far as names go, I would probably start with a package of Thompson and Moya or Travis and go from there with a few other mid-level prospects depending on what SD wants/needs. Maybe even Perez would be expendable, SD needs middle infield prospects from what I read.

The difference between Hunter and Smith is big. We agree.

The difference between Benoit / Soria and Hardy is big to me and will net about the same difference as Hunter v. Smith. We disagree.

Thompson, Travis, Perez and a couple others? That is a pretty steep price. Thompson is one of the few Tiger pitchers that projects to be even a 3rd starter. You would have to get a permanent fixture like Smith if you give Jake up.

 

[Rebbiv]

Because the team currently has corner outfielders that I believe will perform to about the same adequacy as Seth Smith. Any increase in production he would provide would be roughly equivalent to the difference of Miller vs. Hardy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...4&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

That's a link for relievers in baseball. Andrew Miller is 10th and has a 1.4 WAR. Phil Coke is a 0.0. Blaine Hardy is 0.1. A 1.3 difference.

Replacing Torii Hunter with Seth Smith would be a 2.0 WAR increase. Which is greater than Miller over the other guys, you can say .7 is more than "roughly" and I won't argue as long as you are swearing that WAR is a useful stat., so I'm on board with that. Torii has been hitting better of late but he can come off the bench for me which is weak. What do we need to give up to get it done?

WAR is a highly flawed stat in my opinion. It is also a counting stat and not viable with limited playing time players or comparing players with disproportionate playing time. You might as well use BAVG to compare two players.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

WAR is a highly flawed stat in my opinion. It is also a counting stat and not viable with limited playing time players or comparing players with disproportionate playing time. You might as well use BAVG to compare two players.

I didn't reply to you with anything about WAR in it. I know your feelings.

I added Hardy and Coke to account for the differences in games / IP.

There is no way to present any statistics to you that don't represent some form of BB rate that you will find acceptable. A reasonable portion of the baseball world follows WAR and sees value. I like it also and am looking forward to improvements in the metric in the coming years, especially DWAR with the new technology being implemented to track player reaction times.

 

[spockmaster]

The difference between Hunter and Smith is big. We agree.

The difference between Benoit / Soria and Hardy is big to me and will net about the same difference as Hunter v. Smith. We disagree.

Thompson, Travis, Perez and a couple others? That is a pretty steep price. Thompson is one of the few Tiger pitchers that projects to be even a 3rd starter. You would have to get a permanent fixture like Smith if you give Jake up.

which is why I brought him up in asking for Smith.


The disconnect between us is that I dont believe that relievers can make anywhere near a big as a difference, overall, as an everyday or nearly everyday player can, whereas you think they can. Would a better reliever make a difference? Absolutely. Would Smith make an even bigger difference? Again, I think absolutely.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

which is why I brought him up in asking for Smith.


The disconnect between us is that I dont believe that relievers can make anywhere near a big as a difference, overall, as an everyday or nearly everyday player can, whereas you think they can. Would a better reliever make a difference? Absolutely. Would Smith make an even bigger difference? Again, I think absolutely.

I know that's why you brought him up. I wouldn't put Thompson in the trade to get Benoit which is why I wouldn't ask for Smith. If we are willing to part with him then I'd better shoot for Smith.

Just going by raw stats the difference between Hunter (one of the worst) and Smith (top 5 LF) is 2.0 WAR. The difference between Miller (one of the very good top 10) and and average relief pitcher (0.0 WAR) is 1.4. On the merits of that I'll agree Seth Smith would make a bigger difference to the Tigers. He will also cost more - but if it was announced tomorrow I wouldn't be angry or call it stupid.

 

[Rebbiv]

Veras sucked last year. You could see it from his first outings as a Tiger. He was the best on a bad team when they got him.

Look at Andrew Miller's three year numbers - except his BB/9 (which is good this year) his numbers show that he has been difficult for RH and LH batters to hit since 2012. He has 15 shutdowns this season with 6 meltdowns. The only Tiger with more SD's is Chamberlain at 18. Nobody else on the Tigers has double digits. Brad Ziegler leads baseball with 27 SD.

In fairness - Veras had 25 SD's last season and had 30 in 2011. He has 0 this year. It is still up to a guy to throw the ball and a guy to hit it and someone to catch it.

A. Miller 2011-2013

vs LHP 306 OBP .330 SLG .636 OPS

vs RHP .387 OBP .410 SLG .797 OPS


P. Coke 2011-203

vs LHP .310 OBP .349 SLG .659 OPS

vs RHP .394 OBP .475 SLG .869 OPS


Looks like just another LOOGY to me.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

A. Miller 2011-2013

vs LHP 306 OBP .330 SLG .636 OPS

vs RHP .387 OBP .410 SLG .797 OPS


P. Coke 2011-203

vs LHP .310 OBP .349 SLG .659 OPS

vs RHP .394 OBP .475 SLG .869 OPS


Looks like just another LOOGY to me.

Post those same numbers starting in 2012 through 2014 just to humor me please.

 

[Rebbiv]

I didn't reply to you with anything about WAR in it. I know your feelings.

I added Hardy and Coke to account for the differences in games / IP.

There is no way to present any statistics to you that don't represent some form of BB rate that you will find acceptable. A reasonable portion of the baseball world follows WAR and sees value. I like it also and am looking forward to improvements in the metric in the coming years, especially DWAR with the new technology being implemented to track player reaction times.

What are the components of WAR?

What are the biases?

I understand that a lot of people use WAR. It doesn't make it less misunderstood or misused.

 

[Rebbiv]

Post those same numbers starting in 2012 through 2014 just to humor me please.

Well, considering what I posted is readily available at ESPN as a recognized split and 2012 - present requires manual computation, no thanks. You can do it yourself.

 

[spockmaster]

I know that's why you brought him up. I wouldn't put Thompson in the trade to get Benoit which is why I wouldn't ask for Smith. If we are willing to part with him then I'd better shoot for Smith.

Just going by raw stats the difference between Hunter (one of the worst) and Smith (top 5 LF) is 2.0 WAR. The difference between Miller (one of the very good top 10) and and average relief pitcher (0.0 WAR) is 1.4. On the merits of that I'll agree Seth Smith would make a bigger difference to the Tigers. He will also cost more - but if it was announced tomorrow I wouldn't be angry or call it stupid.

Per fangraphs (since you're using WAR), Smith is +2.6 WAR on Hunter, and by baseball reference, Smith is +4.0, so the gap is quite a bit bigger than what you posted, both between those 2 players and between Miller and, say, Hardy (which is 1.3 by fWAR and only 0.5 by bWAR.)

Honestly though I'd try to get either Benoit and Smith together, or Smith alone. Smith would be worth the extra cost, given that he would be worth more to the Tigers both this season and going forward than Miller, Benoit, or any RP we could trade for could be, and he would fill a long-term need at corner OF.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

What are the components of WAR?

What are the biases?

I understand that a lot of people use WAR. It doesn't make it less misunderstood or misused.

The Sabermetric stats for runs above average, baserunning both running and stealing and defensive zone rating stats. This is compared to the "replacement player" which can be calculated a couple of ways.

What is a replacement player? The weight of stolen bases is high to me. I don't claim it to be perfect. I don't claim any stat to be perfect because of the innate variablity of live sports. We saw the guy hit two home runs off of Scherzer the other day. No stats pointed to that happening. Shit happens.

It's a good little stat for comparing players of equal positions. I go in for looking at splits and specific batter / pitcher matchups but you can't build a roster like that. It's just mental masturbation at the end of the day. A bunch of "what-ifs?"

I think DD will make a move for a premiere reliever in the next 10 days. I'll buy anyone that says they won't 4 wings at a Metro-Detroit BWW if he doesn't.

 

[spockmaster]

I think DD will make a move for a premiere reliever in the next 10 days. I'll buy anyone that says they won't 4 wings at a Metro-Detroit BWW if he doesn't.

I dont doubt that he will, I'm just wary about who it might be and what it might cost, especially if its only for a reliever.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Per fangraphs (since you're using WAR), Smith is +2.6 WAR on Hunter, and by baseball reference, Smith is +4.0, so the gap is quite a bit bigger than what you posted, both between those 2 players and between Miller and, say, Hardy (which is 1.3 by fWAR and only 0.5 by bWAR.)

Honestly though I'd try to get either Benoit and Smith together, or Smith alone. Smith would be worth the extra cost, given that he would be worth more to the Tigers both this season and going forward than Miller, Benoit, or any RP we could trade for could be, and he would fill a long-term need at corner OF.

I stand corrected. Your argument grows more firm and if there is a player of Seth Smith's caliber they can get then I think they should. Work with the BP guys and make sure the offense is clicking.

I see Miller as being had relatively cheaply and I would look to re-sign him using the inside track. DD did draft the guy.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I dont doubt that he will, I'm just wary about who it might be and what it might cost, especially if its only for a reliever.

Devon Travis, Corey Knebel, James McCann and Josh Turley

Would you be upset if they got Soria for that?

Or Benoit for all of it except Knebel or Turley?

Keep in mind you'll have them next season for around 7M.

 

[spockmaster]

I stand corrected. Your argument grows more firm and if there is a player of Seth Smith's caliber they can get then I think they should. Work with the BP guys and make sure the offense is clicking.

I see Miller as being had relatively cheaply and I would look to re-sign him using the inside track. DD did draft the guy.

If Miller could be had cheaply, he might be worth a flier. The trouble is with the relative dearth of available relievers to the number of teams looking for them (I've seen it said its as high as 15 teams might be looking for relief help), the price even on a rental like Miller is likely to be sky high.

 

[spockmaster]

Devon Travis, Corey Knebel, James McCann and Josh Turley

Would you be upset if they got Soria for that?

Or Benoit for all of it except Knebel or Turley?

Keep in mind you'll have them next season for around 7M.

I would, yeah. 4-for-1 would be a very steep price, especially given what the Angels established giving up 4-for-2 and getting a closer vs a setup man (not my personal distinction, but the one that teams will make.)

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Well, considering what I posted is readily available at ESPN as a recognized split and 2012 - present requires manual computation, no thanks. You can do it yourself.

Andrew Miller
2012
LH .245 OBP / .184 SLG / .429 OPS
RH .373 OBP / .456 SLG / .829 OPS

2013
LH .339 OBP / .386 SLG / .725 OPS
RH .319 OBP / .207 SLG / .526 OPS

2014
LH .217 OBP / .232 SLG / .449 OPS
RH .280 OBP / .238 SLG / .517 OPS

Since the beginning of 2013 I don't see a LOOGY at all. Thanks for making me affirm my belief. It was even better because I had to work for it.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

If Miller could be had cheaply, he might be worth a flier. The trouble is with the relative dearth of available relievers to the number of teams looking for them (I've seen it said its as high as 15 teams might be looking for relief help), the price even on a rental like Miller is likely to be sky high.

Doesn't that validate my point? The constant comment is "relievers are easy to find" yet nobody has them. The price is sky high because teams need them. That's not me (or writers) saying it - it is MLB General Managers. We can have all the sabermetrics and intuition we want but they ultimately determine what REALLY happens everyday.