Tigers interested in + now with agreement in place for Joakim Soria

[Rebbiv]

I'll say I don't see three solid years of data to support that. But you like him so that's good. I see a guy who had a fluke year and is the player he is going to be.

But he is one of your top 5 third baseman

Beltre, Chisenhall, Frazier, Wright, Seager, Sandoval, Longoria, Carpenter, Rendon, McGhee I would take before him but everyone entitled in their opinion.

It's funny though - you used 2011 when pulling up Andrew Miller's stats but this time you leave 2011 out. If you take his fluke season of 2012 out you see the player the Yankees are getting. I won't argue that he makes the Yankees better because the left side of their infield has been a disappointment.

By statistical definition, a "fluke" year is when a player hits 25 points higher than their career average without a significant change in their walk rate. A "career" year, is any year where the players exceeds their norms, mostly in counting stats, without overall change to the walk rate. I believe you meant "career" year...but I will let you slide because that is your demeanor on here.

2011-2013 Away

.290 BAVG .377 OBP .471 SLG .848 OPS 11.8 BB%

3rd in wOBA

3rd in wRC+

4th in OPS


2009-2011 Away

.305 BAVG .366 OBP .438 SLG .804 OPS 8.6 BB%

7th in wOBA

8th in OPS

8th in wRC+


PetCo Park, Headley's home park all this time, is arguably the worst hitter's park in the Major Leagues and the AL West (sans Coors) is known for pitcher parks as well. The only real way to compare him to other 3rd basemen is to use Away stats. In 2011-2013 timeframe, he actually improved his walk rate.


So...let's see data from your stance backing up your claims that he isn't a top 10 3B.

 

[Rebbiv]

I'll say I don't see three solid years of data to support that. But you like him so that's good. I see a guy who had a fluke year and is the player he is going to be.

But he is one of your top 5 third baseman

Beltre, Chisenhall, Frazier, Wright, Seager, Sandoval, Longoria, Carpenter, Rendon, McGhee I would take before him but everyone entitled in their opinion.

It's funny though - you used 2011 when pulling up Andrew Miller's stats but this time you leave 2011 out. If you take his fluke season of 2012 out you see the player the Yankees are getting. I won't argue that he makes the Yankees better because the left side of their infield has been a disappointment.

UZR/150 since 2013 (due to Rendon only starting in 2013) / Away OPS

Headley 11.9 (.700)

Longoria 11.7 (.772)

Frazier 11.0 (.682)

Carpenter 7.5 (.793)

Seager 2.0 (.760)

Wright 2.0 (.825)

Sandoval 0.8 (.740)


Beltre -1.6 (.846)

Rendon -4.3 (.755)

McGehee -7.5 (.761)

Chisenhall -13.0 (.816)


Is listing the 31-year old McGehee having A "FLUKE" season a joke to be on the list?

 

[Thundercats]

Headley has been below average since 2012. The past two seasons, his overall OPS is around .700, and his road OPS this season is actually worse than his home OPS. In 2013, his road OPS was worse than him home OPS, too. The only reason he may be top 10 is how weak a position 3rd base has become offensively. Guys like Wright, Sandoval, Longoria, and Zimmerman are all declining, but so is Headley. A few starting 3rd basemen right now are very young, and a couple are shortstops playing out of position. Castellanos, Machado(natural ss), Bogaerts(natural ss), Arenado etc. Then you have Carlos Santana, who moved there from C this year. 3B isn't the powerhouse it used to be offensively, that's for sure. Beltre is still elite, and Cabrera is at 1st now.. Beltre is probably the only elite 3B right now, with a few good, and the rest average or below.

 

[Rebbiv]

Headley player through knee pain in 2013 and had surgery after the season was over. His first half this year his still part of the lingering effect of the knee surgery. This is a little different than Cabrera playing with his injury and not being just right this year, but the reference still works.

He’s missed 19 games this season with leg, arm, and back injuries. The injury to his back occurred on June 20 and he received cortisone injections to relieve the pain and swelling. Upon his return from that injury, he switched back to the grip he used prior March 2013, when he injured his thumb. The change in grip has seemingly helped his hitting; he is slashing .300/.325/.413 since the change, which he claims returned him to the grip he used in 2012.


Defense-wise, Headley is still a top 5 3rd basemen. That cannot be argued. It is whether you believe offensively he can return to productive levels for the Yankees. And yes, I believe he will.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

UZR/150 since 2013 (due to Rendon only starting in 2013) / Away OPS

Headley 11.9 (.700)

Longoria 11.7 (.772)

Frazier 11.0 (.682)

Carpenter 7.5 (.793)

Seager 2.0 (.760)

Wright 2.0 (.825)

Sandoval 0.8 (.740)


Beltre -1.6 (.846)

Rendon -4.3 (.755)

McGehee -7.5 (.761)

Chisenhall -13.0 (.816)


Is listing the 31-year old McGehee having A "FLUKE" season a joke to be on the list?

I'm just saying I'll take McGehee's future over Headley's. I'll take him this season and next. We can compare after the fact.

 

[Rebbiv]

I'm just saying I'll take McGehee's future over Headley's. I'll take him this season and next. We can compare after the fact.

Weak

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Headley player through knee pain in 2013 and had season after the season was over. His first half this year his still part of the lingering effect of the knee surgery.

He?s missed 19 games this season with leg, arm, and back injuries. The injury to his back occurred on June 20 and he received cortisone injections to relieve the pain and swelling. Upon his return from that injury, he switched back to the grip he used prior March 2013, when he injured his thumb. The change in grip has seemingly helped his hitting; he is slashing .300/.325/.413 since the change, which he claims returned him to the grip he used in 2012.


Defense-wise, Headley is still a top 5 3rd basemen. That cannot be argued. It is whether you believe offensively he can return to productive levels for the Yankees. And yes, I believe he will.

Plenty of guys that can't hit would be top 5 3rd basemen. It is a position that requires offense as well. No point debating. You like him as a player I think he's a dime a dozen Brandon Inge type.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Weak

Oh gee, hurt my feelings.

I'm supposed to run to fangraphs and cherry-pick a bunch of stats aren't I?

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

I've got no interest in arguing with you or anyone. I'll agree that you've convinced me that Headley is an above average defender. I still stand by his numbers of last season and this season to think that he is below average at the plate. Something changed in his training regimen after 2012.

He's by no means "garbage" but I don't think his offensive production makes him a top 5 3rd basemen. If you want him in the top 10. I suppose I can think about it. I see him as a light-hitting player at a power position. I feel the same way about "Warning Track Power" Castellanos.

You take care of yourself and thanks for the input. We can track the impact Headley makes from here out on the Yankee's win total to see how it changes.

 

[Rebbiv]

Oh gee, hurt my feelings.

I'm supposed to run to fangraphs and cherry-pick a bunch of stats aren't I?

Well, you have yet to articulate exactly why Headley isn't a top 10 3B. And I did say, when healthy, when mentioning Headley could be a top 5.

You have discounted the fact the Headley has been hurt the last two seasons and might be the cause of his production drop. I have demonstrated that 2012 was not a "fluke". And yet you have not recognized a single valid point I made. Which valid point have you made?

And get off the Cherry-pick of stats will you? If anything, you are the king of loving "fluke" / "career" year players. Is that not cherry-picking one lone season?

 

[sggatecl]

Say what you want about Rebbiv and the stats he chooses but it's like watching a college professor debate a high school student when it come down to "stats vs subjective banter".

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Well, you have yet to articulate exactly why Headley isn't a top 10 3B. And I did say, when healthy, when mentioning Headley could be a top 5.

You have discounted the fact the Headley has been hurt the last two seasons and might be the cause of his production drop. I have demonstrated that 2012 was not a "fluke". And yet you have not recognized a single valid point I made. Which valid point have you made?

And get off the Cherry-pick of stats will you? If anything, you are the king of loving "fluke" / "career" year players. Is that not cherry-picking one lone season?

You need to re-read, I gave you credit for illustrating his above average defense.

Chase Headley since beginning of 2012 against other 3b
.47 BB/K Ratio 14th
23.2% K Rate 22nd
.172 ISO 16th low for a guy striking out that much
-4.5 BsR 17th Good combo, can't hit for power or run the basees.

He does have a top-5 BB% rate and also is right at the tenth position for some stats like wRC+ and OPS.

I said before that given the stats you present I would consider him for a spot from 5-10 but his performance for the last year I think represents the player he will be going forward. You think now that he's healthy he'll be who he was in 2012 (which I included in the numbers).

Since the beginning of 2013 he is a .714 OPS - Only David Freese and Matt Dominguez are worse.

I didn't think I needed to articulate much beyond his .296 OBP this season seeing as any Tiger with that is instantly crucified. Chase Headley is your boy. I had no idea you were so sensitive about him. I'm comfortable considering him on the cusp of top 10 at best given the numbers presented.

 

[spockmaster]

At this point, as long as we dont trade Thompson or maybe Travis for a reliever, I'll probably be ok with whatever trade DD makes (we'll likely need them to trade for an OF this offseason.)


On a semi-related note, I was sad to notice that the extension the Padres just signed Seth Smith to includes a clause that says he can't be traded this month.

 

[spockmaster]

Saw a rumor we're making a trade with Texas, getting Soria and sending Knebel and Thompson. Not sure about the source or if its true, but if it is and thats the entire trade, Im going to set DD on fire and then beat him with a pool noodle.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Saw a rumor we're making a trade with Texas, getting Soria and sending Knebel and Thompson. Not sure about the source or if its true, but if it is and thats the entire trade, Im going to set DD on fire and then beat him with a pool noodle.

97.1 reporting it as a done deal from a trusted inside source.

 

[spockmaster]

97.1 reporting it as a done deal from a trusted inside source.

Yep.



GO FUCK YOURSELF DOMBROWSKI. What a fucking overpay. Even if we did trade Thompson later, we need a fucking OF in the offseason and he's one of our best chips. This is fucking retarded.

 

[SouthOfMackinac]

Yep.



GO FUCK YOURSELF DOMBROWSKI. What a fucking overpay. Even if we did trade Thompson later, we need a fucking OF in the offseason and he's one of our best chips. This is fucking retarded.

I feel vindicated. Right or wrong move DD did what I expected him to do and what most GM's would do with a team this close.

I didn't want Thompson traded in this deal and I winced with pain when I heard his name as part of it. Mostly because I knew the reaction it would have here.

Saving grace - Josh Turley had a good first start at Erie. They might see him as the next guy for the rotation (after Ray? ahead of Ray?). This team may need to add two starters in the next two years. Three after Verlander goes to long relief...kidding...I hope...

 

[spockmaster]

Vindicated nothing, nobody was saying he wouldnt do this (or at least, I didnt. In fact, i said multiple times that I knew he was going to overpay for someone, likely soria or benoit and it was just a matter of when), we just didnt want him to.


And its definitely Thompson that makes this trade bad. I get it, we needed a reliever, but this is fucking stupid.

 

[UMRules06]

Well it addresses a need I suppose. I have to admit I do not keep up with the Tigers prospects as well as most of the rest of you do. What was Thompson's predicted ceiling?

 

[spockmaster]

Well it addresses a need I suppose. I have to admit I do not keep up with the Tigers prospects as well as most of the rest of you do. What was Thompson's predicted ceiling?

Mid-rotation starter. Im more upset because we'll need to trade for an OF in the offseason and Thompson was one of our better assets for that.