Lots of playeers are hurt and play through. I only evaluate on what they do and not what they might do if things were different. I haven't avoided it at all, I have gone out of my way to post that your stance is that he has been injured and thus declined. I think you avoid reading anything that you can't take offense with.
I don't say what you do is 'all' wrong - in the post you have quoted I said that I appreciate the effort (willful ignornace again?) You put in the numbers. I like you actually because you take a position and then work to support it. I don't belittle or demean your numbers. I apologize if I've been unduly harsh on the "cherry picking" - you load your words and that pisses me off when I'm trying to discuss a topic. I retaliate when I shouldn't.
There are enough of my posts in this thread that indicate you feel Headley is top 5 when healthy. I will say again that is your position. Hopefully that is enough. I say even when healthy he doesn't hit well enough for the position and I posted the numbers as you requested. I have substantiated my position to my satisfaction. Not much to do but let it play out.
I have 35 years studying stats from all sports also. From my first Street and Smith to present day. I am always looking for outliers because the one year Wade Boggs hit 20 home runs I had a bet he wouldn't hit more than 10.
There is a middle ground between thinking you know exactly what will happen because you read some stats and closing your eyes and guessing. I think you know that but enjoy painting it otherwise which is your demeanor here. It's all good. I got no animosity towards you or anyone.
Stats is a historical accounting of what happened. You choose to use his total stats from the 2 years he is hurt. It does not mitigate anything and it just re-enforces your position.
The "wait and see" game can be done on anything. Even the "overpaying" for Soria. But certain stats can be predictive, but one with 35 years of extensive knowledge already knows this. And because they are predictive, we can make an "educated guess". Now, are these guesses 100% accurate. How course not. But their are 100 times more accurate than "subjective observation".
Vision is the one sense that can be "fooled". Just ask any illusionist or magian. In addition, "biases" effect or perception of that just happened. 10 people can watch the same car accident. Police will interview the witnesses and get 10 variations of the story. Are any of them lying? Of course not. They all describe what they think they saw.
In baseball, two scouts can watch the same game/players and come away with two diverse reports. It is a matter of perspective and biases.
In sabermetrics, sample size matters. 1 season of data doesn't prove anything, except if it was an outlier. 3 seasons worth of data generally normalizes a few biases. Away stats helps eliminate home park biases. OPS, both for pitcher and hitters, is a straight forward, readily accessible stat that can be utilized. Run Created or any other linear weight stat would probably be better, but they aren't always readily available.
Now, if I show 3 years worth of data, and it shows Headley is #8 in Away OPS during that timeframe and he was hurt during one of those years, or maybe even two of those years, then what is wrong with claiming he is a top 10 3B and when HEALTHY, a top 5?
Yet, you are constantly asserting that he isn't even a top 10 offensive 3B. You want to isolate to last year's and the first half of this year (the period he has struggled with injuries) to make your point. And you want to use his biased home park statistics as well.
Maybe I am just experiencing WILLFUL IGNORANCE!
