What should the Tigers do?

[Rebbiv]

Chicken Little....Chicken Little...


OK...so losing Martinez is a blow. I get that. However, here is the stat line for those 2011 players (not including Martinez) that are no longer with the team:

912 PA 90 R 17 HR 80 RBI .253 BAVG .310 OBP .364 SLG .674 OPS 66.82 RC/650

Now, as much as I dislike Delmon, he should more than make up for most of this in a full season, even in a bad year. If DET can effectively replace these stats with AL Average production (See Young), then that is roughly a 3 win improvement offfensively.

As a DH. Martinez was about 4 wins above the average AL DH. So, if he is replaced by an average DH, and with production increase from above, the net effect is minus 1 win.

Understand, using the same formulas, losing Cabrera would mean 13 wins over an AL Average 1B, or a minus 10 wins with the "Young Improvement".

To further make a point. If you replace Inge with a AL Average offensive 3B (not an elite one), then that is a 3 win improvement. Add the 3 win for "Young Improvement", then subtract Martinez, this team should be about 2 wins better than 2012.

Adding someone line Cepedes, pretty much is only giving you league average production at DH (whoever plays there). And we are still about minus 1 win from last year in offensive production for DH, whether Young is DH or not.

I could have used 2B instead of Inge, but I believe the effect would be the same. At some point before 2013, DET needs to address 2B and/or 3B.

Without Martinez, a DH by committee would work. Heck, even Avila could see more time as DH. I understand that means Laird as C reduces that effect.

I will also go out on a limb and say DET is hoping Castellanos solves their 3B issue in 2013. Personally, I would rather solve it now than later. But, I would take at least a 2B upgrade. I certainly wouldn't be looking for a 1-year DH replacement.

 

[Mitchrapp]

We've been saying that but he hasn't added anyone yet and players report in just a few weeks. There are so many who will have a hard time reaching last years number. And what kind of player will he had, a Vmart type? No. He's content with Inge and Kelly at 3B and Santiago/fill in the blank at 2nd. And who knows in LF. There were guys out there who DD could of snagged but he didn't want to trade his precious prospects.

I get that the Central stinks but maybe a WS ring wouldn't be too much to ask for.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Chicken Little....Chicken Little...


OK...so losing Martinez is a blow. I get that. However, here is the stat line for those 2011 players (not including Martinez) that are no longer with the team:

912 PA 90 R 17 HR 80 RBI .253 BAVG .310 OBP .364 SLG .674 OPS 66.82 RC/650

Now, as much as I dislike Delmon, he should more than make up for most of this in a full season, even in a bad year. If DET can effectively replace these stats with AL Average production (See Young), then that is roughly a 3 win improvement offfensively.

As a DH. Martinez was about 4 wins above the average AL DH. So, if he is replaced by an average DH, and with production increase from above, the net effect is minus 1 win.

Understand, using the same formulas, losing Cabrera would mean 13 wins over an AL Average 1B, or a minus 10 wins with the "Young Improvement".

To further make a point. If you replace Inge with a AL Average offensive 3B (not an elite one), then that is a 3 win improvement. Add the 3 win for "Young Improvement", then subtract Martinez, this team should be about 2 wins better than 2012.

Adding someone line Cepedes, pretty much is only giving you league average production at DH (whoever plays there). And we are still about minus 1 win from last year in offensive production for DH, whether Young is DH or not.

I could have used 2B instead of Inge, but I believe the effect would be the same. At some point before 2013, DET needs to address 2B and/or 3B.

Without Martinez, a DH by committee would work. Heck, even Avila could see more time as DH. I understand that means Laird as C reduces that effect.

I will also go out on a limb and say DET is hoping Castellanos solves their 3B issue in 2013. Personally, I would rather solve it now than later. But, I would take at least a 2B upgrade. I certainly wouldn't be looking for a 1-year DH replacement.

You also have to figure JV won't have the same year and also Fister, even if he's here from the start. Peralta? BB and Avila? Hopefully Raburn can smash the ball all year, a big hope. I'm more worried about with men on base, we'd have Inge, Raburn, Santiago and AJ up right in a row. Would you be confident any of those would come through? That's over 500 k's right there.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Btw, if that's what wins above replacement is saying, it's seriously flawed. DY is not close to Mart.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch[/color]]Btw, if that's what wins above replacement is saying, it's seriously flawed. DY is not close to Mart.

It isn't wins above replacement. Replacement is far less than average. It is what an average DH is.

AVG AL DH 2010-2011

.281 BAVG .347 OBP .407 SLG .754 OPS 83.54 RC/650

Young 2010-2011

.285 BAVG .319 OBP .448 SLG .767 OPS 81.22 RC/650

Martinez 2010-2011

.317 BAVG .366 OBP .481 SLG .847 OPS 100.35 RC/650


Basically, for every 5 run difference in RC/650 = 1 win. Martinez, as a DH, is 16.81 RC/650 above average. Divide that by 5 and you get 3.4 Wins Above Average, 3.8 WAA above Young.

Now, Young isn't necessarily replacing Martinez. Take Martinez out of the equation for a second. A full season of Young replaces Ordonez, Guillen, etc...at least in Plate Appearances. Those players combined for 66.82 RC/650 last year. Young, if he repeats his last 2 year average, is 14.40 RC/650 above that, or 2.9 wins.

Now, I will agree Peralta is due for a decline. But, I see Jackson settling into something between 2010 and 2011, so that would be an improvement from 2011. I see this as a wash.

Based of Inge's and Leyland's caravan comments (and me reading into them), I see Inge bashing is way into becoming the fulltime 3B or crashing is way out the door in 2012. Either way, it is a win/win for the Tigers.

I fully expect the Tigers to add another bat before Opening Day. Preferably a left-hander or switch-hitter. Good on base percentages would certainly help.

Now, depending on how Inge's situation works out and any additional bat(s), DET is most likely going to be Division Champs again. But, it is how well everyone plays will dictate whether they have enough to go to the WS.

 

[spockmaster]

Pena signed with the Rays.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/rays-to-sign-carlos-pena.html

 

[buddyboy2121]

DD's comments on Prince today seemed very telling. If Prince wants to do a one year deal the Tigers will make a run at him

 

[Thumb]

DD's comments on Prince today seemed very telling. If Prince wants to do a one year deal the Tigers will make a run at him

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

 

[tomdalton22]

DD's comments on Prince today seemed very telling. If Prince wants to do a one year deal the Tigers will make a run at him

Prince would be stupid to sign a one year deal with the Tigers.

 

[motownwebguy]

Your poll went A-B-C-D-E (five options)

I didn't vote - instead opting for (F) - the sixth option.

That is to have Delmon Young and Ryan Raburn at DH for 90% of the games and either sign or trade for a new LF'er.

 

[spockmaster]

[quote="Maize&blue21":krbbbqmp]DD's comments on Prince today seemed very telling. If Prince wants to do a one year deal the Tigers will make a run at him

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.[/quote:krbbbqmp]
oh, scotty. he likes the excelsior eventually...

 

[Mitchrapp]

[quote="Maize&blue21":14e6com3]DD's comments on Prince today seemed very telling. If Prince wants to do a one year deal the Tigers will make a run at him

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.[/quote:14e6com3]

Lol.

 

[Thumb]

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

oh, scotty. he likes the excelsior eventually...

But the Transwarp drive never panned out, that's what Sulu had wood over and Scotty shot him down, cock blocking engineers!

 

[spockmaster]

oh, scotty. he likes the excelsior eventually...

But the Transwarp drive never panned out, that's what Sulu had wood over and Scotty shot him down, cock blocking engineers!

the scene where they steal the Enterprise is one of the best scenes of anything ever.

 

[food4thought]

I'm going all in for the next few years.

First, sign Cespedes: Upgrades defense in LF, hopefully gives us a decent bat along with his above average baserunning ability.

Second, trade for Wright (extend him on a 4 year deal): Huge upgrade at 3B, fills spot in middle of order.


Lineup:
Jackson (CF)... sigh, still best option
Avila (C)... High OBP and decent average
Boesch (RF)
Cabrera (1B)
Wright (3B)... best protection for Miggy
Peralta (SS)... hope he doesn't regress too much
DY (DH)... hope he hits more like the end of last year than his Twins days
Santiago (2B)... better than Raburn
Cespedes (LF)... good spot for him until we see what kind of hitter he is. Regardless, a defensive and baserunning upgrade. Hopefully, he hits well enough to move him up towards the top of the order.

 

[mjsb2]

Why would Young DH over Raburn?

Raburn is a better hitter.

 

[buddyboy2121]

Would like to see a solution to this problem soon.

 

[jimrice]

Around this time last year, a lot of people were mentioning Ryan Strieby as a trade chip. Interesting that he wasn't mentioned as a candidate for the empty DH spot. I know he was dropped from the 40 man, but I don't recall any team scooping him up. I never considered him a MLB prospect, but many posters assigned him plenty of trade value over the years.

 

[kalinecountry]

Weeks before ST starts, and first week of April before the season starts, then you have up to the all-star break....I get the feeling they are going to take their time with things... first, they have to see if they get Cespedes, then move from there with leftover unsigned older aging player(s).
Upgrading one of the 2 infield platoons would help. Getting a 2nd baseman could free up Raburn to the outfield where he is less of a liabilty.
imo, at this point in time, it is a guessing game which/what/who/direction they make any move(s).

 

[turok]

KalineCountry[/color]]
imo, at this point in time, it is a guessing game which/what/who/direction they make any move(s).

Yup...that is exactly why this time of year is called the "hotstove" leagues, b/c baseball fans, (the term likely coined back pre-WWII) who would gather round the wood-burning stoves @ their town barbershop and/or general store, and talk about their favorite teams/players and the trades that they might make over the winter. So its all just guesswork, and the Tigers brass may or may not acquire one of those whose names have been mentioned here, since VMart's entire '12 season is very likely DOA.