What to do with Stafford

[Mitchrapp]

Changed 12 starters last year..so no

We got 12 players that we stuck in the starter role.

 

[LKP]

We got 12 players that we stuck in the starter role.

They all started for their former teams

 

[Mitchrapp]

They all started for their former teams

Then why didn't the former teams keep 'em.

 

[tomdalton22]

Then why didn't the former teams keep 'em.

most likely either their talent was deteriorating, they were too expensive, or both.

 

[LKP]

most likely either their talent was deteriorating, they were too expensive, or both.

Cap and expired contracts. Or injuries

Shelton, Wlliams, Trufant, Collins all had much better year in 2019 than 2020. Vaitai too, much healthier

 

[Mitchrapp]

Cap and expired contracts. Or injuries

Shelton, Wlliams, Trufant, Collins all had much better year in 2019 than 2020. Vaitai too, much healthier

No one picks us unless there were no other options.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

No one picks us unless there were no other options.

We very much have to operate like the 2003 Tigers. Build from the draft. Young players give teams cap and draft flexibility. We'll have to overpay for talent until then. Pudge is a good example....still good, but coming off an injury the Tigers took a risk and "overpaid" him. Team gets better. Pudge has success. Pudge recruits another good player coming off injury in Maglio. Young players start to produce at a high level.....boom. Tigers have a decade of success.

 

[Mitchrapp]

We very much have to operate like the 2003 Tigers. Build from the draft. Young players give teams cap and draft flexibility. We'll have to overpay for talent until then. Pudge is a good example....still good, but coming off an injury the Tigers took a risk and "overpaid" him. Team gets better. Pudge has success. Pudge recruits another good player coming off injury in Maglio. Young players start to produce at a high level.....boom. Tigers have a decade of success.

I wish we had more draft picks this year. Might be the wrong time to need a QB.

 

[mhughes0021]

I wish we had more draft picks this year. Might be the wrong time to need a QB.

Quin ****ed us one last time as a parting gift. Last year at 3 was the right time to pick a qb. here we are a year later with no qb.

 

[LKP]

No one picks us unless there were no other options.

LOL you have no idea if that is true. They could have had other options and offers

 

[Mitchrapp]

LOL you have no idea if that is true. They could have had other options and offers

Ja, okej.

 

[detroit1811]

At this point, the Matthew Stafford trade speculation is off the rails. Sports writers for at least half of the teams in the NFL have already published their “Should the _____ trade for Matthew Stafford” articles, leading to exaggerated deals and pie-in-the-sky fantasies both for Lions fans and fans of teams hungry for a franchise quarterback.

To help bring us back down to reality, I wanted to get an outsider’s perspective of this trade situation from a cap and contracts expert. So I tagged our good friend Brad Spielberger, the cap expert over at PFF and a contributor to OverTheCap.com.

We asked him five questions to break down this potential trade from every single relevant angle: most likely destinations, Stafford’s trade value, the cap implications for the Lions, how the decreased salary cap could impact negotiations and, finally, how he believes the process will play out.

Here’s our conversation.

1. The big question regarding a Stafford trade is how much the Lions could get in return for a 33-year-old quarterback with two years left on his deal. Many people are pointing to the Sam Bradford trade (first and fourth) as a starting point. Is that fair?

Spielberger: “I think the better trades to look at for comparison’s sake are Alex Smith from Kansas City to Washington and/or Carson Palmer from the Bengals to the Raiders, because all of these players were/are better than Sam Bradford ever was. Bradford is also only three months older than Stafford, so back in 2016 when the Eagles sent him to the Vikings he was still in his late 20s. The respective compensation packages are very different, however: Smith was acquired for a third-round pick and CB Kendall Fuller, whereas Palmer was acquired for a first-round pick and future second-round pick.

I would imagine the Lions prefer acquiring draft picks more than players at this stage, as a complete rebuild makes sense in the post-Stafford era. With all of that said, I think Stafford’s price will be a first-round pick and then a second or third depending on how many suitors ultimately emerge. That was a lot of words to end up effectively agreeing that the Bradford package will be very close in value, but I think the Vikings’ desperation artificially drove the value up a bit there.”


2. What are the cap implications for the Lions if they trade Stafford? What about the roster bonus due on the fifth day of the league year?

Spielberger: “This is one very important component of Stafford approaching the team early on in the offseason and requesting a trade, as it’s likely that the two sides would agree to move back the due date of the roster bonus if that becomes necessary to facilitate a move. Stafford would of course want it to be fully guaranteed in return, but typically offseason quarterback trades get done early so the player can report to his new club ASAP anyway. Let’s assume the roster bonus travels to the new club, the Lions would then incur a dead cap charge of $19 million in 2021 while realizing a cap savings of $14 million.

That $19 million number obviously seems rather hefty, but that’s just the nature of quarterback compensation. For reference, the Rams incurred a total dead cap charge of $20.15 million for running back Todd Gurley by cutting him prior to the 2020 season, so it could be a lot worse. Looking at other quarterbacks whose names have been floated in trades as well, a Carson Wentz move would lead to $33.8 million in dead cap for the Eagles, and the very unlikely Aaron Rodgers trade would leave the Packers with $31.5 million in dead cap (he also has a roster bonus situation like Stafford).”

3. Based on cap space and draft resources, which QB-needy team is most likely to take a serious run at Stafford?

Spielberger: “In my opinion, three AFC teams emerge as the favorites. I do think the Washington Football Team will be very interested, and it’s probably not a total coincidence that they just named former Lions GM Martin Mayhew (who drafted Stafford to the Lions) as their new GM. However, I would imagine that if all else were equal, the Lions may prefer getting Stafford out of the NFC. To be clear though, they shouldn’t take lesser compensation just to make that happen. The San Francisco 49ers also make sense.

“Nevertheless, the three AFC teams are the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. The Patriots and Colts are both top-five in projected 2021 cap space, and both are obviously in desperate need of a quarterback. Cam Newton likely won’t be retained in New England, and Philip Rivers of course just announced his retirement. I understand folks love to pile on the Patriots when they’re down - and conveniently ignore they had eight players opt-out this season when only one other team had more than three (the Browns had five, though none were true impact players) - but they’re fully capable of getting back in the mix in 2021. However, I would agree the Colts are probably closer to contending.

“The Patriots first-round pick at No. 15 and the Colts’ at No. 21 are more likely in play than the Broncos’ is at No. 9, which may complicate matters for Denver if that pick is truly untouchable, but they also make a lot of sense. New GM George Paton was the Assistant GM with the Minnesota Vikings dating back to 2012, so he is very familiar with Matthew Stafford. I believe it should be somewhat apparent that Drew Lock is not the answer in Denver, and I think this roster could also be a “quarterback away.” They’ve added Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and other quality weapons in recent drafts, have solidified their offensive line, and still had a good defense in 2020 without Von Miller. Throw a top-third of the league quarterback into that situation and things get interesting quickly, though being in the same division as the Chiefs these days is something of a nightmare.”

4. Will this trade be impacted by the decreased salary cap? Will teams be less inclined to spend on a veteran QB with limited cap space?

Spielberger: “Stafford’s cap hit of $20 million for an acquiring team in 2021 is very manageable, and even in a scenario where he signs an extension as a part of the trade (which is probably somewhat likely), I would assume that cap hit remains essentially unchanged. The decreased salary cap could have teams arguing with Detroit that lesser draft pick compensation makes sense because of the increased financial burden, but with multiple suitors in the mix, that argument would probably fall on deaf ears.

“At the end of the day, the rules just don’t apply to franchise quarterbacks. Any team interested in Stafford would find a way to make it work if necessary.”

5. Take your best guess: What happens?

Spielberger: “Indianapolis Colts or Washington Football Team get a deal done. First and third round picks, or perhaps a player like Daron Payne from Washington along with a second.”

 

[detroit1811]

That is the first pretty in depth analysis I've seen on his trade value. I honestly would hope we can get a little more then that. Even in Denver came calling I would want that #9 pick and at least a 2nd next year or 3rd this year. If it was someone like Washington or Indy who pick a little later I would want a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year. I do think, unless a couple teams get desperate, we won't be able to land multiple 1sts. Maybe thats optimistic on my end, but I see teams like Washington, Indy, and San Fran as being legitimate contenders with Stafford. Especially Washington and San Fran considering the NFC is much weaker then the AFC right now. That to me could up his price.

 

[mhughes0021]

That is the first pretty in depth analysis I've seen on his trade value. I honestly would hope we can get a little more then that. Even in Denver came calling I would want that #9 pick and at least a 2nd next year or 3rd this year. If it was someone like Washington or Indy who pick a little later I would want a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year. I do think, unless a couple teams get desperate, we won't be able to land multiple 1sts. Maybe thats optimistic on my end, but I see teams like Washington, Indy, and San Fran as being legitimate contenders with Stafford. Especially Washington and San Fran considering the NFC is much weaker then the AFC right now. That to me could up his price.

i think if #9 is in play it will be only the 9. Which im not opposed to be honest. You get wilson/lance and potentially a micah parsons. Id be extatic.

 

[detroit1811]

i think if #9 is in play it will be only the 9. Which im not opposed to be honest. You get wilson/lance and potentially a micah parsons. Id be extatic.

I wouldn't be mad, but when you have a trade chip in Stafford, I would hope we can pick up more picks.

Young players on rookie contracts is how we need to build this team the next year or two. Get those high priced FA contracts off the books (Shelton, Williams, Coleman, Collins, Vatai, Stafford, Christian Jones, Trufant, Daniels). In free agency we should not spend big unless its on a young player who still is developing and can be here for 5+ years (like John Johnson/Marcus Williams). That way in a couple years we are flush with cap space once all this dead money is gone and we have these young guys developing on rookie contracts.

I just think the time is now for a full on rebuild. Do it right this time, stop cutting corners.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

i think if #9 is in play it will be only the 9. Which im not opposed to be honest. You get wilson/lance and potentially a micah parsons. Id be extatic.

Unless Fields kills his combine....I think Wilson goes #2. Might not be the Jets, but I think the Lions would have to get to #2 to get Wilson.

I don't want Fields or Lance. I think Lance will be a bust. I'd rather have Mac Jones than either of those guys.....but Wilson is my choice. If trading Stafford for only #9 is the best you can get....do it.....trade #7 and #9 to the Jets to move up to #2.....maybe getting a player or pick in return as well.....grab your franchise guy and build from there.

Edit: According to the trade value chart.....the Lions could trade #7 & #9 to the Jets for the #2 and #66 (2nd pick, 3 round).

That trade would score

Jets - 2850
Det. - 2860

 

[tomdalton22]

Unless Fields kills his combine....I think Wilson goes #2. Might not be the Jets, but I think the Lions would have to get to #2 to get Wilson.

I don't want Fields or Lance. I think Lance will be a bust. I'd rather have Mac Jones than either of those guys.....but Wilson is my choice. If trading Stafford for only #9 is the best you can get....do it.....trade #7 and #9 to the Jets to move up to #2.....maybe getting a player or pick in return as well.....grab your franchise guy and build from there.

Edit: According to the trade value chart.....the Lions could trade #7 & #9 to the Jets for the #2 and #66 (2nd pick, 3 round).

That trade would score

Jets - 2850
Det. - 2860

there isn't going to be a combine this year, only on campus workouts but NLF people will be allowed to be there in person. I think there will be interviews via Zoom or something similar.

Fields will hit it out of the park "in shorts", especially on OSU's campus with his own WRs. Not sure on his interview, he seems like he says the right things but comes across as very shy.

 

[detroit1811]

there isn't going to be a combine this year, only on campus workouts but NLF people will be allowed to be there in person. I think there will be interviews via Zoom or something similar.

Fields will hit it out of the park "in shorts", especially on OSU's campus with his own WRs. Not sure on his interview, he seems like he says the right things but comes across as very shy.

I would hope there is at least private workouts with teams. In those workouts they can put those guys in tougher situations and hopefully get a better feel.

 

[tomdalton22]

I would hope there is at least private workouts with teams. In those workouts they can put those guys in tougher situations and hopefully get a better feel.

the NFL has already banned the private workouts.


The NFL announced this week a change to the 2021 Scouting Combine, canceling in-person workouts. In a Friday night memo, the league informed teams of changes to the pre-draft process beyond the Combine.

Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports the NFL is prohibiting scouts from timing, testing, interviewing in-person or giving medical exams to any draft-eligible player at any location except a school?s pro day or at an all-star game. The league cited ongoing concerns surrounding COVID-19,


It bans private workouts, facility visits, dinners and film sessions with draft prospects. Schools hosting pro days are allowed a maximum of five players classified as ?Designated Underclassmen? to participate in a pro day.

Teams also are limited to three representatives at any pro day.

NFL teams can begin conducting phone or video interviews with underclassmen Monday and with seniors on Feb. 1.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Multiple Teams Are Reaching Out To Detroit Lions About Matthew Stafford Trade
Total Pro Sports "The trade market for Matt Stafford is starting to take shape. On Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that multiple teams have begun reaching out to the Detroit Lions to initiate trade talks and determine what the asking price would be to acquire the veteran..." January 26