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Major moves on the Big BoardMel Kiper Jr.*[ARCHIVE*ESPN Insider | January 8, 2014
Joel Auerbach/Getty ImagesSammy Watkins hauled in 16 passes for 227 yards and two TDs in the Orange Bowl.
It's officially draft season. There are no college football games left to play, and now the all-star games, NFL combine and individual workouts and pro days will dominate the process and become a big reason I'll make changes to the rankings. A big thing to remember is how important all this stuff is. The notion that we can only trust the tape just doesn't work, given the sample size you see of players against good competition, the distinctions between systems and the fact there will be position changes to come.
Bottom line: the process that begins now is important. As for this week, the biggest riser is*Sammy Watkins, who enters the top five.*Blake Bortles*is also on the board for the first time.
Remember: scouting reports remain similar week to week, whereas I'll have updates on performances and anything else that takes place during the draft process.
Asterisks denote juniors; two asterisks denote redshirt sophomores.
1
Jadeveon Clowney *
AGE:*20
DOB:*2/14/93
HT:*6-6
WT:*265
POS:*DE
Tkl 41
Sack 3.0
Int 0
Not a lock for one of the top two or three spots, but still the top prospect. Need will factor in. Clowney has the quickness to beat people at the point of attack, the power to run through blockers and the speed to pursue all over. He's not just an edge rusher looking to quickly turn the corner; he doesn't even bend that well. He beats average tackles both inside and outside with his first step.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 1 |*PLAYER CARD
2
Anthony Barr
AGE:*21
DOB:*3/18/92
HT:*6-4
WT:*244
POS:*OLB
Tkl 66
Sack 10.0
Int 0
Could be the pass-rusher taken ahead of Clowney based on scheme. A disruptive force even with added attention, Barr became a more complete player this season. He's a good pass-rusher, using quick feet and hands to free himself, and he's disciplined. I love his pursuit when the play runs away from him. A former fullback, he has a powerful lower half and a long frame and reach.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 2 |*PLAYER CARD
3
Jake Matthews
AGE:*21
DOB:*2/11/92
HT:*6-5
WT:*305
POS:*OT
GP 13
GS 13
The top left tackle on my board for most of the season, he will have competition to be the first one taken. As a player, Matthews has a ton of experience and a feisty, competitive nature. He is an intense worker and has great NFL bloodlines; his father, brother and two cousins have played in the league. Has strong skills as both a pass-protector and a finisher in the run game, where you can see a nasty streak.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 3 |*PLAYER CARD
4
Greg Robinson **
AGE:*21
DOB:*10/21/92
HT:*6-5
WT:*320
POS:*OT
GP 14
GS 14
Now declared, he has a chance to be the first left tackle taken. Brought in as a guard, Robinson started at left tackle in the SEC as a redshirt freshman and held his own. This year, he was dominant, with increased strength making him closer to that complete package at tackle. He moves really well, can get out in the run game and block in space (as you saw in the BCS title game), but does so with a powerful lower half that makes him tough to push backward, too; he has long arms and delivers a solid punch. He gets a good push in the run game and can get out in front. Could become a special player at tackle.
PREVIOUS RANK: 9 |*PLAYER CARD
5
Khalil Mack
AGE:*22
DOB:*2/22/91
HT:*6-3
WT:*248
POS:*OLB
Tkl 100
Sack 11.0
Int 3
The Senior Bowl will be big for Mack, who really only gets knocked on competition level. But I've said before you really have to watch him play and see how he lines up all over the field and can do everything. He is versatile and capable of rushing the passer with quickness and power, dropping into coverage, shedding tackles and making plays in the open field. He uses proper leverage to take on blocks and drive people back and uses quickness and strong hands to shed. Plays with a great motor, but smart.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 4 |*PLAYER CARD
6
Sammy Watkins *
AGE:*20
DOB:*6/14/93
HT:*6-1
WT:*205
POS:*WR
Rec 101
Yds 1,464
Avg 14.5
TD 12
He moves up after another very good performance, a game in which he again played bigger than he measures. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or across the middle into big plays. He has speed and short-area agility but also powers through tackles and does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down. He is extremely explosive, both before and after the catch. He has strong hands and uses his strength to beat defenders to the ball.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 6 |*PLAYER CARD
7
Eric Ebron *
AGE:*20
DOB:*4/10/93
HT:*6-4
WT:*245
POS:*TE
Rec 62
Yds 973
Avg 15.7
TD 3
A likely bet to be the first tight end taken, with the skills to put him into the range more typical of the first wide receiver taken. He has the length and flexibility to haul in anything you throw his way, can be split out and can make plays after the catch. Has the size to overwhelm cornerbacks and most safeties, good burst and above-average straight-line speed. He can go up and get the ball and does a good job of catching it with his hands away from his body. Great body control allows him to haul in errant throws. A QB's best friend.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 13 |*PLAYER CARD
8
Teddy Bridgewater *
AGE:*21
DOB:*11/10/92
HT:*6-3
WT:*218
POS:*QB
Comp 303
Att 427
Pct 71.0
Yds 3,970
TD 31
Int 4
Demand dictates he made a smart decision to enter the draft. Bridgewater is poised and smart and is the QB most regularly making NFL throws with timing and anticipation in this class, throwing not just to players, but to spots. He has a good blend of arm strength to drive the ball into tight windows and the sense of when to take some heat off the ball. He throws a very catchable ball. He moves his eyes quickly and often scans the whole field. When he sees a target, he has a quick release, enough velocity and good ball placement.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 10 |*PLAYER CARD
9
Blake Bortles *
AGE:*22
DOB:*12/16/91
HT:*6-4
WT:*230
POS:*QB
Comp 259
Att 382
Pct 64.5
Yds 3,581
TD 25
Int 9
Bortles offers a good blend of the size traditionalists want at the QB position and the athleticism that is now more coveted as NFL offenses often look to put the quarterback's feet to good use. He has sound mechanics, though almost rigidly so, and shows poise and good footwork in the pocket. He has above-average arm strength based on my reviews, can drive the ball pretty well on intermediate throws, and while he's generally accurate, he can be inconsistent with his ball placement and ask a lot of his wide receivers, an area where Bridgewater has been better so far. The UCF offense also turned a lot of short throws into huge plays, inflating passing totals a bit.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR |*PLAYER CARD
10
Timmy Jernigan *
AGE:*21
DOB:*9/24/92
HT:*6-2
WT:*298
POS:*DT
Tkl 53
Sack 5.0
Int 0
I love his great sense for how to disrupt the run game in particular. He could be quicker off the snap -- maybe it's just anticipation -- but he makes up for it and can both drive blocks and split doubles. Once he's in motion, he has good burst, power and improved hand use to free himself. He's a former defensive end who brings a lot of quickness to the inside. He moves easily and can occasionally shoot gaps or move laterally and scrape with pace to get down the line.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 12 |*PLAYER CARD
11
Taylor Lewan
AGE:*22
DOB:*7/21/91
HT:*6-8
WT:*308
POS:*OT
GP 13
GS 13
Put together a steady year in a tough situation with a lot of inexperience around him. I had him graded pretty similarly at this time last year before he opted to return. Lewan is long, with above-average athleticism. He has added power, strength in his lower half and a mean streak as a run-blocker, and he moves and kicks out well in pass protection. Lewan can slow down the game (in a good way) with his awareness and experience.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 20 |*PLAYER CARD
12
Johnny Manziel **
AGE:*21
DOB:*12/6/92
HT:*6-0
WT:*206
POS:*QB
Comp 300
Att 429
Pct 69.9
Yds 4,114
TD 37
Int 14
Highly competitive, Manziel is known as an improviser, but is also an effective pocket passer and sees the field well from there. He doesn't have a special arm, but can make special throws because he has tremendous touch and the ability to deliver off-balance. He would deliver strikes with more velocity if he kept his feet underneath him consistently. Height will always be a question because it does offer its advantages, but Manziel has proven it won't hurt him much. The final question: How well does he interview and deal with the scrutiny and bright lights of the draft process?
PREVIOUS RANKING: No. 14 |*PLAYER CARD
13
C.J. Mosley
AGE:*21
DOB:*6/19/92
HT:*6-2
WT:*232
POS:*LB
Tkl 106
Sack 0
Int 0
Mosley has the versatility and great cover skills that will make him an appealing talent in any scheme. He flies to the ball, tackles with underrated ferocity and scrapes effectively, getting off blocks to make a ton of plays. He simply needs to get a bit stronger and show leverage going downhill against the run. Could be best on the weak side; he gets past blocks and chases everything down (or simply beats people to the ball).
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 5 |*PLAYER CARD
14
Marqise Lee *
AGE:*22
DOB:*11/25/91
HT:*6-1
WT:*195
POS:*WR
Rec 57
Yds 791
Avg 13.9
TD 4
At one time my top wide receiver, I have him behind Watkins, but not by much. Lee has so many NFL-ready traits. He has good quickness in short areas to separate from press coverage and to maneuver after the catch, and he has enough straight-line speed to beat defenders deep. He is an effective route-runner, accelerating easily out of breaks, and makes most routine catches and can play bigger than his size to make the spectacular ones. He is physical and extremely dangerous after the catch and will run through many arm tackles.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 7 |*PLAYER CARD
15
Mike Evans **
AGE:*20
DOB:*8/21/93
HT:*6-4
WT:*220
POS:*WR
Rec 69
Yds 1,394
Avg 20.2
TD 12
Somewhat reminiscent of Alshon Jeffery in that he creates value in his ability to make contested catches, using his reach, jumping ability and long frame to beat shorter defenders, but is forced to make that kind of catch because he can't run away from defenders, or create much separation with quickness. Evans could be used on the edge or in the slot to create matchup problems and should make for a very good possession target. I'm sure he'll be working on speed and quickness in draft prep.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR |*PLAYER CARD
16
Justin Gilbert
AGE:*22
DOB:*11/7/91
HT:*6-0
WT:*200
POS:*CB
Tkl 42
Sack 0
Int 7
Has put together a great season after a subpar 2012. Has short-area quickness to adjust to routes and the open-field speed to run with (or past) any receiver. Has the size to jam at the line and can then flip his hips and run; he rarely allows much separation. Good ball skills and hands, evident both in coverage and the return game. Squarely back into the mid-first-round mix.
PREVIOUS RANK: 21 |*PLAYER CARD
17
Stephon Tuitt *
AGE:*20
DOB:*5/23/93
HT:*6-6
WT:*315
POS:*DE
Tkl 49
Sack 7.5
Int 1
Tuitt could shine during the draft process given his combination of elite quickness and great size; I've compared him to a young Richard Seymour. He offers tremendous burst and power and the ability to work inside or outside and create pressure. Teams looking for a penetrating 3-4 DE will like his potential, but when healthy, he can also provide a pass rush as a 4-3 DE, which is saying something for someone playing at about 320 pounds.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 8 |*PLAYER CARD
18
Carlos Hyde
AGE:*22
DOB:*9/20/91
HT:*6-0
WT:*242
POS:*RB
Att 208
Yds 1,521
Avg 7.3
TD 15
Hyde has a great combination of elite size for the position plus quick feet and an ability to accelerate quickly through the hole. He's devastating on the second level because he has a downhill style that makes him a punishing runner who can run through and bounce off contact. Has above-average hands and can catch what you throw his way.
PREVIOUS RANKING: No. 19 |*PLAYER CARD
19
Darqueze Dennard
AGE:*22
DOB:*10/10/91
HT:*5-11
WT:*197
POS:*CB
Tkl 62
Sack 0
Int 4
Maybe the most versatile defensive back in the draft, he's skilled in almost any area of coverage. Dennard can play up and redirect routes or off in zone and make plays in front of him. He'll play a really tight man-to-man, and he turns his head well to avoid penalties that could be called if he didn't show ball awareness based on how tight he can play in coverage. Has a nice burst and will rush the passer effectively when asked to blitz. Good tackler.
PREVIOUS RANK: 25 |*PLAYER CARD
20
Kony Ealy *
AGE:*22
DOB:*12/21/91
HT:*6-5
WT:*274
POS:*DE
Tkl 42
Sack 8.0
Int 1
While Ealy doesn't jump off the screen with quickness, he's a very good athlete for a 4-3 defensive end, and can close quickly, covering a lot of ground in just a few strides. He also has good length and will hold his rush to eye the passer and get his hands into passing lanes. Ealy also has the ability to move inside where he can get in gaps and provide an interior pass rush, mostly with quickness. While I think he lacks the size to be a true 3-technique, his frame could support more if he wants to muscle up, and I think coaches in any system will consider him a possibility. He just needs to get off blocks better, because his ability to shed doesn't match up to his level of athleticism.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR |*PLAYER CARD
21
Ryan Shazier *
AGE:*21
DOB:*9/6/92
HT:*6-2
WT:*225
POS:*OLB
Tkl 142
Sack 6.0
Int 0
Versatile, quick, instinctive and a strong tackler, Shazier lacks size, but the NFL demands that linebackers can really run, too. He anticipates, plays sideline to sideline and will track tight ends and running backs in coverage with the burst and agility to stay with them. In the mold of a Lavonte David, Shazier is a linebacker who looks like an oversized safety but does a great job of tracking and making tackles.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 16 |*PLAYER CARD
22
Vic Beasley *
AGE:*21
DOB:*7/8/92
HT:*6-3
WT:*235
POS:*LB
Tkl 40
Sack 13.0
Int 0
Like Barr, Beasley was once a running back, and has the kind of quickness and foot speed you would associate with that position. But he's also extremely powerful in the lower half and can use that leverage to drive a tackle into the backfield. Shows a good variety of pass-rushing skills; he does a good job of ripping his arm through and turning the corner with a good bend. Exciting prospect because the ceiling could be very high.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 15 |*PLAYER CARD
23
Cyrus Kouandjio *
AGE:*20
DOB:*7/21/93
HT:*6-6
WT:*311
POS:*OT
GP 13
GS 13
Has the massive size, long arms and good feet that in part define the best at the position, but has been dogged by inconsistency, and in particular has been beaten by speed too often. When he puts it all together, he can dominate. Has the balance of reach and power to keep rushers at bay but needs to use his arms to punch a little better and get pass-rushers off balance, eliminating speed. A really good run-blocker. Could be drafted before he turns 21.
PREVIOUS RANKING: No. 22 |*PLAYER CARD
24
Louis Nix III *
AGE:*22
DOB:*7/31/91
HT:*6-3
WT:*326
POS:*DT
Tkl 27
Sack 0
Int 0
A rare commodity, at his best he has the rare size and strength to handle a zero-technique role, keeping multiple blockers occupied and eating up two gaps while making life easy for linebackers cleaning up against the run. But he's not limited to that because he can really move, at least a lot better than you would expect from a player his size. Nix is occasionally moved too easily and loses gap control.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 11 |*PLAYER CARD
25
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *
AGE:*20
DOB:*12/21/92
HT:*6-1
WT:*208
POS:*S
Tkl 50
Sack 0
Int 2
Instinctive and fluid, he's the top free safety option in the draft, and does a good job in coverage. He reads the quarterback well and can accelerate or turn quickly to make plays in any direction. What he isn't yet is very physical. I wouldn't call him a "big hitter" at this point, but that's not such a bad thing because the way the position is played is changing and you need great coverage more than an enforcer.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 23 |*PLAYER CARD
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