Avril Has Little Leverage

[cheeno]

Avril beats singles fairly consistently. That's what he is. Still a good thing. Double digit sacks I'll take it whatever way a Lion player can get it,singles doubles, nobody blocking them, I don't care. Can't make teams double him just to prove a point. It's a good thing no matter who is at DT but with Suh and Fairley we won't have to worry about "does Avril need Suh" if the Lions do decide to pay Avril because they will have Suh and Fairley for at least 3 years or more. Run D needs major work for Avril but that goes for KVB, Levy,Delmas and Spievey as well. Lo Jack and Young graded out better but I think Young at least would struggled if he played more obvious run snaps. He's not going to be paid what he thinks he's worth. Will be interesting to see how it turns out and who buckles first. Avril does have leverage with KVB being old and not worth his cap number and Lo Jack a free agent next year.

This is (to a admittedly lesser extent talent wise but equally bogus) the "Stafford needs CJ" argument that our trolling neighbors in the NFC North love to try out.

 

[lp4ever41]

Look, Avril is a great player. But it doesn't even matter if he's actually worth $12 million a year. The Lions simply can't afford it. They have guys like Stafford, CJ, and Suh making a lot of money for the next few years. You have to balance the budget. When you have three guys making that much money, you simply can't keep everyone. Some good players will leave. Its the way it is.

What you hope is that some of your players will take slightly less to stay with you. Cliff doesn't want to do that. It doesn't matter how good he is, if he won't budge from his current demands then they simply can't sign him.

 

[cheeno]

Look, Avril is a great player. But it doesn't even matter if he's actually worth $12 million a year. The Lions simply can't afford it. They have guys like Stafford, CJ, and Suh making a lot of money for the next few years. You have to balance the budget. When you have three guys making that much money, you simply can't keep everyone. Some good players will leave. Its the way it is.

What you hope is that some of your players will take slightly less to stay with you. Cliff doesn't want to do that. It doesn't matter how good he is, if he won't budge from his current demands then they simply can't sign him.

Agreed. But there is a difference between not being able to sign him due to cap considerations and not wanting to sign him because he is not a good player. I think there are two different camps.

 

[renaldok]

Agreed. But there is a difference between not being able to sign him due to cap considerations and not wanting to sign him because he is not a good player. I think there are two different camps.

Exactly! I've never thought Avril wasn't worth being on the team, just not for $10+ million a season.

 

[wheels002]

I have always said I like Avril but lets me honest if we are going to keep Staff and CJ and even Suh long term we will need to cut corners somewhere and if that means we cant keep Cliff than so be it. He isnt worth 10 mil a year. At most maybe 6. I think we could get close to the same production for a lot less. He benefits greatly from a DL and the wide 9.

 

[LKP]

Just because Detroit runs a wide 9 does not give Avril excuses in the run. Like was said, Avril needs to not take himself out of the play, especially on running plays. Luckily Tulloch and Durant can shed and tackle but you can't rely on that the majority of the time because it's hard for even good LBs. An inside move would help Avril recover on run plays and be a better pass rusher. But right now using just speed to get to the QB dropped deep works with DT pressure. If the Lions want to pay 12 million for that so be it, but I doubt they do that.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Just because Detroit runs a wide 9 does not give Avril excuses in the run. Like was said, Avril needs to not take himself out of the play, especially on running plays. Luckily Tulloch and Durant can shed and tackle but you can't rely on that the majority of the time because it's hard for even good LBs. An inside move would help Avril recover on run plays and be a better pass rusher. But right now using just speed to get to the QB dropped deep works with DT pressure. If the Lions want to pay 12 million for that so be it, but I doubt they do that.

I'm not a big supporter of Avril but that's his job just like KVB job. They want their DE rushing the QB and not worrying about the run.

 

[lp4ever41]

Agreed. But there is a difference between not being able to sign him due to cap considerations and not wanting to sign him because he is not a good player. I think there are two different camps.

I honestly think most people here think Avril is a good player, but he's pricing himself out of Detroit.

The reason why this debate goes on is because the people saying negative things about him are simply justifying why he's not worth $10-$12 mil / year, while those who defend him do so without considering the $$$.

Does anyone here think the Lions should give him $10-$12 million a year?

 

[cheeno]

I honestly think most people here think Avril is a good player, but he's pricing himself out of Detroit.

The reason why this debate goes on is because the people saying negative things about him are simply justifying why he's not worth $10-$12 mil / year, while those who defend him do so without considering the $$$.

Does anyone here think the Lions should give him $10-$12 million a year?

Yes. $10 mil is market price, see: Cam Wake. If he got a similar deal I would be on board.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Yes. $10 mil is market price, see: Cam Wake. If he got a similar deal I would be on board.

It might be market price but I wouldn't want it.

 

[mhughes0021]

Yes. $10 mil is market price, see: Cam Wake. If he got a similar deal I would be on board.

wake was 12 a year. 4 for 49 i believe

 

[cheeno]

wake was 12 a year. 4 for 49 i believe

20 guaranteed is a good deal.

 

[tsmith7559]

Wake is playing for less than a Mill this year...so his is really 5yr $49.7 Mill

 

[mhughes0021]

Wake is playing for less than a Mill this year...so his is really 5yr $49.7 Mill

lol didnt realize that. less than a mil and already has his contract....will be fun to watch if his numbers plunge this year or if he takes a couple extra weeks off.

 

[lp4ever41]

Yes. $10 mil is market price, see: Cam Wake. If he got a similar deal I would be on board.

Fair enough, but I didn't ask if he's worth it. I asked if you think the Lions should do it. How do they field a competitive defense next season with so many FAs and so little cap room? You can't just move everything into the future. You pay it off eventually.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Fair enough, but I didn't ask if he's worth it. I asked if you think the Lions should do it. How do they field a competitive defense next season with so many FAs and so little cap room? You can't just move everything into the future. You pay it off eventually.

I'm sure it's here somewhere but what can they save by releasing guys like Nate, KVB, maybe trade C. Williams etc? I doubt the Lions are the only team in a situation like this. It always seems to work out.

 

[murktastic]

i hope avril gets a deal at about 25 mil guarenteed. 40 mil 5 years. 8 mil per sounds fair

 

[tsmith7559]

I'm sure it's here somewhere but what can they save by releasing guys like Nate, KVB, maybe trade C. Williams etc? I doubt the Lions are the only team in a situation like this. It always seems to work out.

Nate converted some money into a SB, so he's here for this year. Next yr he saves around $5, KVB-$5, CW this year is $4.9, FA in 13'. Gosder would save around $2.3

 

[cheeno]

Fair enough, but I didn't ask if he's worth it. I asked if you think the Lions should do it. How do they field a competitive defense next season with so many FAs and so little cap room? You can't just move everything into the future. You pay it off eventually.

I'm not really an expert in cap room so I can't really comment on the how. Defensively I know CW and KVB will be coming off the books soon and Levy and/or Durant can and may be replaced or let walk. Who else is going to command a big contract? Delmas? He'll have to have one hell of a year this year because despite his talent he has had trouble staying on the field.

To answer your question more specifically: Avril, like him or not is one of the few talented young players on the defensive roster (Suh, Tulloch, Delmas, possibly Fairley?, can you name more?) and the one place you don't want to skimp on due to financial concerns is in the pass rushing department, so yes I would suggest the Lions look elsewhere when and if they need to cut costs.

To me this again comes back to the fact that there is a large contingent that thinks Avril isn't very good and is replaceable with a lesser talented player (because of Suh or whatever) allowing us to cut costs at DE. To me this is like saying we could replace Stafford with Hill because of CJ (although yes I admit the talent gap between Stafford/Hill is likely much larger than Avril/LoJack, though Lojack is not exactly JPP). Keeping in mind operationally we have a 35 year old KVB likely retiring very soon. A career back up and a rookie starting doesn't appeal to me much.

In short, yes if the deal is Cam Wake pull the trigger, figure out the cap room later and feel good you locked up one of your young talent.

 

[lp4ever41]

I'm not really an expert in cap room so I can't really comment on the how. Defensively I know CW and KVB will be coming off the books soon and Levy and/or Durant can and may be replaced or let walk. Who else is going to command a big contract? Delmas? He'll have to have one hell of a year this year because despite his talent he has had trouble staying on the field.

To answer your question more specifically: Avril, like him or not is one of the few talented young players on the defensive roster (Suh, Tulloch, Delmas, possibly Fairley?, can you name more?) and the one place you don't want to skimp on due to financial concerns is in the pass rushing department, so yes I would suggest the Lions look elsewhere when and if they need to cut costs.

To me this again comes back to the fact that there is a large contingent that thinks Avril isn't very good and is replaceable with a lesser talented player (because of Suh or whatever) allowing us to cut costs at DE. To me this is like saying we could replace Stafford with Hill because of CJ (although yes I admit the talent gap between Stafford/Hill is likely much larger than Avril/LoJack, though Lojack is not exactly JPP). Keeping in mind operationally we have a 35 year old KVB likely retiring very soon. A career back up and a rookie starting doesn't appeal to me much.

In short, yes if the deal is Cam Wake pull the trigger, figure out the cap room later and feel good you locked up one of your young talent.

Right now, they are projected to be about $20 million in cap space, but that doesn't include this year's rookies.

The FAs they might be interested in bringing back:
Cliff Avril
SLH
Lawrence Jackson
Willie Young (RFA)
Durant
Levy
Spievey (RFA)
Berry (RFA)
Delmas
Houston
Smith

If Cliff takes up $10 million, and this year's rookies take up around $5, you're looking at $5 million in space. Even if you cut KVB, Burleson, and Peterman, you're at around $12-$13 million. Then thrown in the cost of the tags for Young, Spievey, and Berry, and you're down to around $10 million.

With that $10 million, you need to fill:
2 DEs (LoJack, KVB)
2 DTs (Williams, SLH)
2 LBs (Durant, Levy)
1 S (Delmas) <- assuming Spievey still has a job as the other starter
1 CB (Houston) <- assuming Berry or a rookie can fill the other spot & nickel
1 G (Peterman)
1 WR (Burleson) <- They'll need a 4th.
You just can't do it.