Computers still love Michigan

[Michchamp]

I know what you're trying to say, MCHamp, but I really don't think we have to worry about that. IF Michigan wins out, I don't see them missing the play-off. IF they lose another game, they don't deserve to be there. I think it is really that simple.

you posted before I got my next post up.

I more or less agree, but I'd still hate to have to make that argument, especially if it comes down to a one loss LSU that beats Bama and then wins the SEC championship, and us. According to Sagarin, LSU has a better SOS than us right now.

I think we have a better resume than Oklahoma.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Biggest shitstorm scenario:

We win out, & ND, Oklahoma, and Clemson all win out. then an undefeated Alabama goes down in a close loss to a one-loss Georgia team in the SEC championship. Or alternately, LSU beats Bama in a close game, then whoops the SEC East Champ.

You have two undefeated teams (ND & Clemson) seemingly in for sure, and 4 one loss teams making a good case for all being included. I don't see how a one loss Bama isn't included in that scenario, so really them you have three teams making a case for one slot in the playoff.

It does occur to me that the stiffs on the committee would try to slip a one loss, non-champion Alabama into the mix.

It happened before under the BCS formula when they were just two teams, LSU and Alabama. Everyone probably remembers this, LSU had beaten Alabama, gone on to win the conference championship and the formula got Bama in without a conference championship.

And the committee is even more subjective and therefore subject to chicanery than the BCS, which, as flawed as it was was still an unalterable formula once all was said and done.

 

[TheVictors]

why did osu jump 3 spots on a BYE and following a 29-pt loss....?

 

[Michchamp]

why did osu jump 3 spots on a BYE and following a 29-pt loss....?

 

[tomdalton22]

why did osu jump 3 spots on a BYE and following a 29-pt loss....?

because Texas and Florida both lost and most voters don't think UCF is better than OSU.

 

[TheVictors]

because Texas and Florida both lost and most voters don't think UCF is better than OSU.

"Texas is back" is the most overrated team this season. B12 is down overall and UT is very average

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

Here are some things Ive been thinking about. OU's strength of schedule is a joke and there are people picking them above Michigan. Michigan is not getting any respect, still, because the doubters think they are going to lose this week and against Ohio St. Michigan has to win out to silence everyone, but at the same time, they need OSU to be ranked high when they play and that may not happen. As much as I would like for them to lose to MSU in 2 weeks, it would really hurt Michigan's chances if OSU has a second loss before we play. (As much as I hate Alabama) IF Michigan runs the table, Bama is our best friend at the moment. If they win out, they give everyone in the SEC a 2nd loss. That leaves OU, ND, Clemson, Alabama, and Michigan the top 5 teams if all win out. We would need to beat a highly ranked Ohio St. to get us past OU with the way it looks to me. It seems every year people suck Sooner dick this time of year and they get the benefit of the doubt. Remember when they got pantsed against KSU in the BIG12 championship and still got to the NC game? Yeah, me too.

 

[Michchamp]

since not only is the season still on, but they haven't even played again, I don't know whether OSU's loss to Purdue was a sign they're falling apart, or just "the ass kicking" they needed to get them to shape up.

 

[tomdalton22]

I posted in this thread that UM was better than OSU prior to their loss to Purdue. UM should win out and take the Big 10. If they do that, they will be in the top 4.

 

[biggunsbob]

I agree . One game at a time and win out hopefully and I believe there is no chance the mega rating booster in Michigan will be left out of the playoffs.

 

[UMRules06]

After the first week or two of the season I felt we had no chance against OSU. But we have really improved our overall play, and OSU has sort of taken a step back. We not only should be able to hang with them in CBUS, we have a fine chance to get a win if we play well.

One game at a time though. Must beat Penn State. Biggest game of the year thus far.

 

[tinselwolverine]

... Michigan is not getting any respect, still, because the doubters think they are going to lose this week and against Ohio St. Michigan has to win out to silence everyone...

Michigan is getting a lot of respect.

Michigan with one loss is ranked number five.

Why wouldn?t there be doubters?

Until Michigan wins this week and then beats Ohio State they haven?t won this week and haven?t beaten Ohio State.

Assuming Michigan does that then beats the scrubs in between, and then wins the conference championship game, then yes I agree with you, the doubters will finally be silenced.


Until then why shouldn?t the doubters doubt?

 

[Mitchrapp]

So if LSU loses to Alabama this week do we pass them? I've seen funny things before so who know. If LSU wins I suspect Alabama will be 2 or 3 at worse. They have a free mulligan every year.

 

[tinselwolverine]

So if LSU loses to Alabama this week do we pass them? I've seen funny things before so who know. If LSU wins I suspect Alabama will be 2 or 3 at worse. They have a free mulligan every year.

Yes.

Even if Penn State wins we jump past everybody.

Now if Michigan wins and LSU loses then we just move up one slot.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I heard prognosticators talking this morning about who the committee would select between a one loss Georgia at a one loss Michigan. They all agreed Michigan because of the relatively small margin in Michigan’s loss. Seems there’s only one person in the world who would have describe that loss as a clown stomping.

Obviously all is hypothetical until the last play of the regular season is completed.

 

[Michchamp]

We're now up to #3 in Sagarin, with the best SOS of any of the top 4.


Alabama and Clemson are a cut above us, with Alabama the clear #1.
Then the rest of the Top 10:
4 OU
5 UGA
6 OSU
7 LSA
8 PSU
9 Iowa
10 UWash
11 Miss St.
12 ND


MSU got a nice bounce from their road win against MD; now up to 16.



For the first time all season, we'd be favored @ OSU (in Sagarin's ratings)

 

[UMRules06]

We're now up to #3 in Sagarin, with the best SOS of any of the top 4.


Alabama and Clemson are a cut above us, with Alabama the clear #1.
Then the rest of the Top 10:
4 OU
5 UGA
6 OSU
7 LSA
8 PSU
9 Iowa
10 UWash
11 Miss St.
12 ND


MSU got a nice bounce from their road win against MD; now up to 16.



For the first time all season, we'd be favored @ OSU (in Sagarin's ratings)

With the way this team is playing and embracing this revenge tour concept, I am fully expecting a win over OSU now. Their defense is mediocre, and our defense should be ready to cause havoc.

 

[Michchamp]

With the way this team is playing and embracing this revenge tour concept, I am fully expecting a win over OSU now. Their defense is mediocre, and our defense should be ready to cause havoc.

I think, unlike 2016, on paper we're good enough to beat OSU, AND all the dirty tricks and cheating they're going to employ.
I still don't know what to expect though.

 

[UMRules06]

I think, unlike 2016, on paper we're good enough to beat OSU, AND all the dirty tricks and cheating they're going to employ.
I still don't know what to expect though.

I think the other thing that helps is they don't run as much read option with Haskins as they did with Barrett and Cardale Jones and others. They used to kill us with that.

Haskins can run at times, but they don't make it a focal point of the offense.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think, unlike 2016, on paper we're good enough to beat OSU, AND all the dirty tricks and cheating they're going to employ.
I still don't know what to expect though.

UM will beat OSU by 20 points. I expect to make some good money on that game. If OSU wins their next 2 games, the line will be really close...probably even or UM favored by a FG or so.

The game won't be close. Mark my words.