Computers still love Michigan

[tomdalton22]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B53Vlje7mcM

 

[Spartanmack]

I think Bill Connelly's S&P+ calls it right vs. the Vegas spread 53-55% of the time, which is really good.

are you talking about picking games or ranking teams? Ranking teams is part of the analysis in picking games but they're not the same thing.

at 53%, you're doing better than most but you're not going to make a lot of money. If you bet $100 on 100 games, you're risking $10k to make $118. Of course it's rare that you'll have big losses but 1.2% is not a great return.

 

[TheVictors]

Pre-season SOS rankings had Ohio state #1, penn state #5, Notre Dame #9, Wisconsin #11 and MICHIGAN #10.

Why?

Because most of these teams play one another, so none of this shit really matters, does it?


Arizona State was ranked #52 because they play a soft OOC.

 

[Gulo Blue]

are you talking about picking games or ranking teams? Ranking teams is part of the analysis in picking games but they're not the same thing.

at 53%, you're doing better than most but you're not going to make a lot of money. If you bet $100 on 100 games, you're risking $10k to make $118. Of course it's rare that you'll have big losses but 1.2% is not a great return.

You're not making lots of money, but it's about as good a predictor as there is.



And regarding ranking vs picking games, I think you're missing what this is or projecting something onto it that it isn't. Computers are just complicated stats. This one is designed with the goal of making predictions and it simplifies things to a single number, so you can rank by that number. There's no rock-paper-scissor analysis. It's just a ranking of how a team is expected to perform on average against and average opponent.

 

[hungry]

looks like these computers put too much weight on pimp slapping patsies because that's basically all uofm has done since getting clown stomped by ND.

ND won by 7

That is not a "clownstomping."

 

[hungry]

on your schedule so far? Notre Dame.


Edit: and someone once told me NW isn't as bad as their record, but you have to be pretty foolish to believe that and besides, being better than your record doesn't mean they're a good team.

Well, someone told me that Thorson didn't play or didn't play much in the game vs Duke or Akron, but I didn't check on that.

Losing your starting QB, or playing him sparingly, and then getting him back full-time could be why a team is better than their record, not saying that is the case here, but maybe.

 

[hungry]

on your schedule so far? Notre Dame.


Edit: and someone once told me NW isn't as bad as their record, but you have to be pretty foolish to believe that and besides, being better than your record doesn't mean they're a good team.

The computers, the people making those programs, and all of the people that rank teams decide who they think is good.

 

[hungry]

I'm just guessing here, but I think Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are pretty decent teams right now. I don't think they are really good, but they are definitely not patsies.

just my opinion, of course...

 

[TheVictors]

Maryland beat #7 ranked Texas, tbh

 

[Spartanmack]

ND won by 7

That is not a "clownstomping."

an honest assessment of that game tells you uofm got outplayed badly. they got a 99 yard kick return after ND scored 3 TDs on their first 4 possessions going 75, 96 and 75 yards and then a garbage time TD against the prevent defense. ND took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and they dropped a lot of passes - they ran the ball on 3rd and 13 early in the third quarter, clearly they were just playing w/ the lead. Prior to the garbage time TD, their longest 2nd half drive was 48 yards. They got beat pretty badly.

 

[Michchamp]

an honest assessment of that game tells you uofm was never in it. they got a 99 yard kick return after ND scored 3 TDs on their first 4 possessions going 75, 96 and 75 yards. they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and ND dropped a lot of passes. Michigan's only TD came with 2:49 left against the prevent defense, prior to that their longest 2nd half drive was 48 yards. They got beat pretty badly.

we also settled for a FG after moving the ball well to the ND 2 on an early drive, and blew a FG off a mishandled snap, but make sure to only cherry pick the facts that support your bullshit claim.

 

[Spartanmack]

I'm just guessing here, but I think Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are pretty decent teams right now. I don't think they are really good, but they are definitely not patsies.

just my opinion, of course...

Maryland beat #7 ranked Texas, tbh

Maryland also lost at home, badly to Temple who lost to SUNY Buffalo and Villanova.

 

[Spartanmack]

we also settled for a FG after moving the ball well to the ND 2 on an early drive, and blew a FG off a mishandled snap, but make sure to only cherry pick the facts that support your bullshit claim.

LOL, you "settled" for a FG from the 10 yard line, early in the game, on the road? That's not settling, that's what you do. And 11 plays for 31 yards including an 8 yard loss on 1st and goal is "moving the ball well?" You got that FG because of great field position off of a 25 yard punt. If ND doesn't make two big errors, you get shutout in the first half. Talk about cherry picking.

My claim isn't bullshit, your response is.

 

[hungry]

an honest assessment of that game tells you uofm got outplayed badly. they got a 99 yard kick return after ND scored 3 TDs on their first 4 possessions going 75, 96 and 75 yards and then a garbage time TD against the prevent defense. ND took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and they dropped a lot of passes - they ran the ball on 3rd and 13 early in the third quarter, clearly they were just playing w/ the lead. Prior to the garbage time TD, their longest 2nd half drive was 48 yards. They got beat pretty badly.

Yet Michigan had the ball down 7 in the final 5 minutes with a chance to drive and tie...It was a one score game.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Outside of those 3 drives (each one assisted by a penalty or two - self inflicted wounds as significant as anything ND did) ND only had 56 yards of offense. Stats were pretty similar in terms of yards and 1st downs. That's not a clownstomping.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I don’t know how the selection would view as differentiating a seven point clown stomping from any garden variety seven point loss.

But if anyone would know I guess it would be them, they are after all the selection committee.

 

[hungry]

Outside of those 3 drives (each one assisted by a penalty or two - self inflicted wounds as significant as anything ND did) ND only had 56 yards of offense. Stats were pretty similar in terms of yards and 1st downs. That's not a clownstomping.

Well, that is only because ND shut things down. Kelley didn't shut things down on the other teams ND blew out, but for some reason, he wanted to keep the Michigan game close...

 

[hungry]

Yes, Maryland lost to Temple. My argument is that they are not a patsie. A patsie is a bad team. Mediocre teams and decent teams are better than patsies, but still aren't good or even very good. I guess if you think in a different way, that any team outside of the top 10 is a patsie and the top 10 teams are good, except for Michigan, then maybe I see...

 

[hungry]

so I was looking and MSU dropped 2 spots after beating Penn State in Happy Valley

(S&P+, whatever that is...)

 

[hungry]

Here's another link for Sagarin

Yours wasn't working

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm