Dwight Howard

[cheeno]

It should matter though because the Nets don't have to pull the trade, they can wait till next year, sign Howard and leave the Magic with nothing if they choose to.

If you were the owner of the Nets and knew a guy wanted to sign with you next season, would you give full value to have him a year early. No, you use whatever you can as leverage. The Magic forfeited leverage by keeping him to this point. 2 years ago someone would have traded a top 5 pick and any good players they had for Howard.

The Nyets want to make a splash in that hipster monstrosity this season not next Beez.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Pay attention to the MLB trade deadline, Mitch. I think you'll find that being in the last year of a deal matters quite a bit there as well. Look at the absurd asking price for Jed Lowrie for example. Because he's under club control they were mentioning bigtime prospects for him.

It matters but not by a lot. Granted, prospects are just that. No idea what they will be like in future years. But a guy like Garza or Hammel, their current team will want and ask for a lot. And if they get traded, they will get a lot. Teams know most likely only a 2 month rental but if they think they're the missing piece..

But in this Howard deal, the Nets know he'll sign with them. So its not just a rental, you think the Magic could get more.

 

[Mitchrapp]

It should matter though because the Nets don't have to pull the trade, they can wait till next year, sign Howard and leave the Magic with nothing if they choose to.

If you were the owner of the Nets and knew a guy wanted to sign with you next season, would you give full value to have him a year early. No, you use whatever you can as leverage. The Magic forfeited leverage by keeping him to this point. 2 years ago someone would have traded a top 5 pick and any good players they had for Howard.

I get that perfectly. I'd do the same. I find fault at the players who make it hard for owners to get fair deals. And why should they have dealt him 2 years ago? Don't teams want to keep their superstars? Maybe Miami should trade Lebron because in 6 years he'll want to play for someone else ;-)

 

[beez]

I get that perfectly. I'd do the same. I find fault at the players who make it hard for owners to get fair deals. And why should they have dealt him 2 years ago? Don't teams want to keep their superstars? Maybe Miami should trade Lebron because in 6 years he'll want to play for someone else ;-)

You can keep them for the length of their contract if you choose or you can deal them if you're worried about losing them. thats what this is all about. Howard signed a contract, he's honored the entire thing. No where when they signed a contract did it say in the last year if you decide you may not wanna resign we should get something really good for you. If the Magic don't like it, let him play out the contract that was structured, part ways at the end and sign a free agent..thats what the contract was made for in the 1st place. They can't cry about not getting good value if they're willing to take anything someone throws at them. If they don't like the deals, keep him. Simple as that.

The only reason the nuggets got good value back for Melo is because he was already headed to New York and the player NY needed off the books to make it happen, happened to be solid NBA players. Not many teams have guys they're willing to give up that make the deal possible. Not to mention the baseball aspect where a team like the yankees can give up 5 prospects who are highly regarded, rent a player for a title run and if he doesn't resign they have the same team they did before just a weaker farm system. In the NBA if you trade top notch guys for Howard and he doesn't resign you become the Bobcats...it's 2 completely different things when you have 10 guys to trade and when you have 100.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

I get that perfectly. I'd do the same. I find fault at the players who make it hard for owners to get fair deals. And why should they have dealt him 2 years ago? Don't teams want to keep their superstars? Maybe Miami should trade Lebron because in 6 years he'll want to play for someone else ;-)

Now you're just being cheeky. You fault the players for wanting to leave a bad team? Why should the owner not have to take responsibility for allowing multitudes of terrible deals that led to this point?

Moreover, no deal is ever truly fair. One side always wins because they either did better research or held more leverage. That's simple economics. Nothing has a true set value and requires that exact value to make a deal. Value is inherently subjective and changes with multitudes of different factors. Timing is a factor. Just look at Hamels in Philly. They never would have traded him last year, but they are open to offers (not saying they must take an offer) this year. Hamels isn't a different pitcher this year, he simply is in the last year of his contract, so Philly is trying to assure itself that he doesn't walk for nothing. His value to Philly has gone down because of uncertainty in re-signing and the pedestrian play of their club as a whole.

How much would Hamels have been worth last year, fully under contract for another year after a team traded for him? I bet it's more than he's worth now. Howard is exactly the same. They have known he didn't want to stay for more than just last year, presuming otherwise is naive. If they wanted a haul for him, they would have traded him two years ago. They instead tried to keep him happy and stay. Just because they lost on their gamble doesn't mean he's a bad person. They were the ones taking the gamble in the first place. Howard is certainly an immature flake, but he's 26 and trying to make the most important decision of his life - Orlando should never have left their future up to this kind of chance.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Now you're just being cheeky. You fault the players for wanting to leave a bad team? Why should the owner not have to take responsibility for allowing multitudes of terrible deals that led to this point?

Moreover, no deal is ever truly fair. One side always wins because they either did better research or held more leverage. That's simple economics. Nothing has a true set value and requires that exact value to make a deal. Value is inherently subjective and changes with multitudes of different factors. Timing is a factor. Just look at Hamels in Philly. They never would have traded him last year, but they are open to offers (not saying they must take an offer) this year. Hamels isn't a different pitcher this year, he simply is in the last year of his contract, so Philly is trying to assure itself that he doesn't walk for nothing. His value to Philly has gone down because of uncertainty in re-signing and the pedestrian play of their club as a whole.

How much would Hamels have been worth last year, fully under contract for another year after a team traded for him? I bet it's more than he's worth now. Howard is exactly the same. They have known he didn't want to stay for more than just last year, presuming otherwise is naive. If they wanted a haul for him, they would have traded him two years ago. They instead tried to keep him happy and stay. Just because they lost on their gamble doesn't mean he's a bad person. They were the ones taking the gamble in the first place. Howard is certainly an immature flake, but he's 26 and trying to make the most important decision of his life - Orlando should never have left their future up to this kind of chance.

It's probably more to do with the way the NBA is setup. Maybe I did go overboard on Howard but the way its setup, do you see the Piston's winning a tile anytime soon?

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

It's probably more to do with the way the NBA is setup. Maybe I did go overboard on Howard but the way its setup, do you see the Piston's winning a tile anytime soon?

No, I don't, honestly. I think we are two years away from Drummond making a significant impact, and I don't think we have the players to contend before that point. Monroe is very good, but not top 20 in the NBA good yet. Knight was expectedly a pretty lackluster rookie, and we don't know yet how good he'll settle into being. Stuckey is what he is, a solid starter with limitations. We basically have no SFs worth mentioning.

We have the capacity to win a title IF Monroe continues to get better and our high potential rookies pan out. But our inability to contend is also a factor of poor decision making the last several years. Rip should never have been extended after the Chauncey trade. Prince should not have been extended. BG and CV were terrible signings. If we had started a rebuild in 09, or simply made better decisions, we may have actually have been able to retool.

But winning the championship is harder even than that. Just because you have the talent doesn't mean you are guaranteed anything. Miami has the best player in the game in his prime, and two true stars around him. OKC has drafted and developed the best home-grown team since the Spurs. Chicago is still a major force when Rose is healthy. Even if all our guys pan out, we may not beat other teams with equal or greater talent. It's not like there weren't other really really good teams in the 90s, it's just that the Bulls were an all-time great team.

 

[zoombabyzoom]

Fair Price for Dwight Howard?

One of these:
1) 3 lottery picks and a NBA starter (Brook Lopez).
2) 2 lottery picks, additional 1st round pick, NBA starter (Lopez), getting rid of Hedo's deal.
3) 2 lottery picks, NBA starter (Lopez), get rid of Hedo's, J-Rich, and Duhon's deals.

Instead they are getting 3 non-lottery picks which equates to maybe one good lottery pick, Brook Lopez, and a bunch of trash players.

 

[zoombabyzoom]

No, I don't, honestly. I think we are two years away from Drummond making a significant impact, and I don't think we have the players to contend before that point. Monroe is very good, but not top 20 in the NBA good yet. Knight was expectedly a pretty lackluster rookie, and we don't know yet how good he'll settle into being. Stuckey is what he is, a solid starter with limitations. We basically have no SFs worth mentioning.

We have the capacity to win a title IF Monroe continues to get better and our high potential rookies pan out. But our inability to contend is also a factor of poor decision making the last several years. Rip should never have been extended after the Chauncey trade. Prince should not have been extended. BG and CV were terrible signings. If we had started a rebuild in 09, or simply made better decisions, we may have actually have been able to retool.

But winning the championship is harder even than that. Just because you have the talent doesn't mean you are guaranteed anything. Miami has the best player in the game in his prime, and two true stars around him. OKC has drafted and developed the best home-grown team since the Spurs. Chicago is still a major force when Rose is healthy. Even if all our guys pan out, we may not beat other teams with equal or greater talent. It's not like there weren't other really really good teams in the 90s, it's just that the Bulls were an all-time great team.

Weird you say it will take Drummond two years, by then Monroe will be on the last year of his deal and looking to be traded to a bigger market if he improves like he should.

 

[tomdalton22]

The way some of these star studded teams are being built I don't think the Pistons will contend for a title until they get 3 top 20 players. I don't see anybody on this roster that is capable of being a top 20 player.

 

[beez]

Fair Price for Dwight Howard?

One of these:
1) 3 lottery picks and a NBA starter (Brook Lopez).
2) 2 lottery picks, additional 1st round pick, NBA starter (Lopez), getting rid of Hedo's deal.
3) 2 lottery picks, NBA starter (Lopez), get rid of Hedo's, J-Rich, and Duhon's deals.

Instead they are getting 3 non-lottery picks which equates to maybe one good lottery pick, Brook Lopez, and a bunch of trash players.

Maybe 2 years ago when he'd be under contract...are you paying that much for a guy in his final year?

 

[deathroh]

Fair Price for Dwight Howard?

One of these:
1) 3 lottery picks and a NBA starter (Brook Lopez).
2) 2 lottery picks, additional 1st round pick, NBA starter (Lopez), getting rid of Hedo's deal.
3) 2 lottery picks, NBA starter (Lopez), get rid of Hedo's, J-Rich, and Duhon's deals.

Instead they are getting 3 non-lottery picks which equates to maybe one good lottery pick, Brook Lopez, and a bunch of trash players.

I'm interested to hear how you could specifically trade someone lottery picks.

 

[deathroh]

It matters but not by a lot. Granted, prospects are just that. No idea what they will be like in future years. But a guy like Garza or Hammel, their current team will want and ask for a lot. And if they get traded, they will get a lot. Teams know most likely only a 2 month rental but if they think they're the missing piece..

But in this Howard deal, the Nets know he'll sign with them. So its not just a rental, you think the Magic could get more.

Yes, they'll get a lot for the rental, but not nearly as much as if he were under club control. Hopefully there are some clear examples we can review when trades start going down.

First off, it's impossible to get fair market value for a guy like Howard. But the Nets have all the leverage here anyway. If they don't get Howard in a trade they know they have a great chance of signing him next year. The Magic are dealing from a position of weakness because they didn't take care of business in years past, as described by beez and smiles.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Something to keep in mind: New Jersey will not have the cap space next year to sign Howard outright. If Orlando doesn't trade Howard to the Nets, he will never be a Net. This is not a Melo situation where NY had the cap space and players to facilitate a trade. Orlando is better off making the best deal, not whichever deal gets Howard to the Nets. They owe Howard nothing, just as he owes them nothing at this point.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Weird you say it will take Drummond two years, by then Monroe will be on the last year of his deal and looking to be traded to a bigger market if he improves like he should.

Monroe will be a restricted free agent at the end of his rookie deal, and will have no leverage to force a trade or leave. None of the team jumping stars talked about left after their rookie deal, rules are in place to prevent it. Best case scenario, Monroe develops into a max-contract kind of player and we'll give him 5 years at the max. No one has ever turned down the max, and no one ever will.

Restricted free agency is a totally different animal and not comparable to the Howard/Melo/Lebron/Bosh situations.

 

[tomdalton22]

Something to keep in mind: New Jersey will not have the cap space next year to sign Howard outright. If Orlando doesn't trade Howard to the Nets, he will never be a Net. This is not a Melo situation where NY had the cap space and players to facilitate a trade. Orlando is better off making the best deal, not whichever deal gets Howard to the Nets. They owe Howard nothing, just as he owes them nothing at this point.

He could be a Net if the last team to have him does a sign and trade. This is the most likely scenario as it still allows the last team to have him to get something in return.

 

[beez]

Something to keep in mind: New Jersey will not have the cap space next year to sign Howard outright. If Orlando doesn't trade Howard to the Nets, he will never be a Net. This is not a Melo situation where NY had the cap space and players to facilitate a trade. Orlando is better off making the best deal, not whichever deal gets Howard to the Nets. They owe Howard nothing, just as he owes them nothing at this point.

He could have, the Nets probably didn't want to put all the eggs in one basket. Still a possibility of Brooklyn agreeing to term with Howard next season and then dealing away some players to make room.

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

He could have, the Nets probably didn't want to put all the eggs in one basket. Still a possibility of Brooklyn agreeing to term with Howard next season and then dealing away some players to make room.

Johnson and Deron alone will take up near 40 million in cap space. In order to afford Dwight, they would need to cut every single other contract on their books. And at that point, they would have to fill 10 other roster spots with just the under cap mid level exception (2.5 million). Even at minimum salaries, that would be impossible. And that's assuming they are able to trade every player on their roster for draft picks (also impossible). The Nets literally have no chance of signing Dwight next year on their own.

Yes, whatever team has him could do a sign and trade, but why? They would have to take back some 14 million in NJ's flotsam. S&T's almost exclusively take place when the trading team takes back little to no salary (creating a trade exception). The cap space plus trade exception is what the trading team wants, not more middling players to fill up their cap. So while there is a possibility of Dwight being signed and traded at the end of the season, it almost never happens under the current circumstances. Why would LA or Houston trade Dwight to a team that can't actually steal him away on their own? Both would just wait it out, banking that Dwight would rather re-sign with them than be forced to sign with what few teams will even have the cap space to offer him.

 

[beez]

Johnson and Deron alone will take up near 40 million in cap space. In order to afford Dwight, they would need to cut every single other contract on their books. And at that point, they would have to fill 10 other roster spots with just the under cap mid level exception (2.5 million). Even at minimum salaries, that would be impossible. And that's assuming they are able to trade every player on their roster for draft picks (also impossible). The Nets literally have no chance of signing Dwight next year on their own.

Yes, whatever team has him could do a sign and trade, but why? They would have to take back some 14 million in NJ's flotsam. S&T's almost exclusively take place when the trading team takes back little to no salary (creating a trade exception). The cap space plus trade exception is what the trading team wants, not more middling players to fill up their cap. So while there is a possibility of Dwight being signed and traded at the end of the season, it almost never happens under the current circumstances. Why would LA or Houston trade Dwight to a team that can't actually steal him away on their own? Both would just wait it out, banking that Dwight would rather re-sign with them than be forced to sign with what few teams will even have the cap space to offer him.

Ah, apologies..I forgot about Joe J...god that contract...

 

[zoombabyzoom]

Yes, its hard to guarantee lottery picks but everyone knows the picks that the Magic look to be getting in any of the trade scenarios include playoff teams (with the possibility of Houston being borderline).

And yes Id give up all those picks and player for Howard on a 1 year deal because before any of these deals are made that team usually has a deal worked out long-term that the player has agreed to. It's already known that he wants to sign long-term with the Nets, so the Nets have no concern at all that Howard is in the last year of his deal. And like I just said teams know before hand if Howard will stay longer than that last year.

Who cares about RFA with Monroe. If he comes out in 2-3 years and demands a trade, guess what he is going to get traded because thats how it works.