One thing to note though is this. While like everyone I believe we could have gotten a better deal for Fister lets not forget he was only slightly better than Porcello in the 2nd half last year.
Verlander
3-6 Record (14 Starts)
92.1 IP
3.41 ERA
3.36 FIP
3.77 xFIP
Scherzer
8-2 Record (13 Starts)
84.2 IP
2.44 ERA
2.85 FIP
3.65 xFIP
Sanchez
7-2 Record (14 Starts)
90.0 IP
2.20 ERA
2.50 FIP
3.12 xFIP
Fister
7-4 Record (13 Starts)
87.2 IP
3.18 ERA
3.14 FIP
3.47 xFIP
Porcello
7-2 Record (12 Starts)
77.2 IP
3.71 ERA
3.55 FIP
3.40 xFIP
I mean is he a more proven starter than Smyly? of course but we cannot look at it as to whether Smyly can attempt to replace Fister in the rotation because that's not the correct comparison. It's whether Porcello can match or better Fister's #4 spot in the rotation and whether Smyly can match or better Porcello's #5 spot in the rotation.
Quality Starts
Scherzer 11 of 13 .846 (25 of 32 .781)
Sanchez 11 of 14 .786 (20 of 29 .690)
Fister 9 of 13 .692 (22 of 32 .688)
Porcello 8 of 12 .667 (18 of 29 .621)
Verlander 9 of 14 .643 (22 of 34 .647)
Alvarez 0 of 2 .000 (1 of 6 .167)
TOTAL = 48 of 68 .706 (108 of 162 .667)
Runs Scored in those starts, total for the game (Season totals)
Porcello 75 / 12 = 6.25 R/G (148 / 29 = 5.10 R/G)
Sanchez 78 / 14 = 5.57 R/G (154 / 29 = 5.31 R/G)
Scherzer 67 / 13 = 5.15 R/G (179 / 32 = 5.59 R/G)
Verlander 51 / 14 = 3.64 R/G (158 / 34 = 4.65 R/G)
Fister 46 / 13 = 3.54 R/G (140 / 32 = 4.38 R/G)
Alvarez 2 / 2 = 1.00 R/G (17 / 6 = 2.83 R/G)
TOTAL 319 / 68 = 4.69 R/G (796 / 162 = 4.91 R/G) (5.07 in 1st half)
"Historically", a team will win as many quality starts, given league average run support. DET was 41-27 in the 2nd half. They lost 7 more games in the 2nd half when they should not have, given those starter performances. 15 games for the season.
AL AVG last 3 years
3579 QS 2475 WGS 6968 GS 30730 R
.514 = QS%
.692 = Starter Wins per QS
4.41 R/G
Not just offense impacts whether a team wins. The bull pen comes into play as well. So, the drop in 2nd half offense contributed to 2nd half lack of normal wins, but the bull pen played more of a role.
But I digress.
Porcello got far more run support in the 2nd half than Fister. I am of the opinion that for some starters (not all), pitching with some runs is easier than pitching without.
Last 3 Years Quality Starts
Verlander 75 QS of 101 GS = .743
Fister 59 QS of 89 GS = .663
Sanchez 61 QS of 92 GS = .663
Scherzer 61 QS of 97 GS = .629
Porcello 50 QS of 91 GS = .549
All 5 of these starters are better than the AL Average the last 3 years for QS%, but the difference between Fister and Porcello has been 3 Quality Starts a year, or about 2-3 wins.
I do not expect Smyly to come close to league average in Quality Starts. In 28 Games Started, he might get 13 or 14. Porcello + Fister was 60 GS and about 36 QS. Porcello + Fister in 60 GS might be 32 (18 + 14). That is a drop of 4 Quality Starts next year. Did we improve the offense to make up for it?
Additionally, gone from the bullpen in Benoit, Smyly, Veras, Dotel, Downs and Valverde/Bonderman. Replaced with just 39-yr old Nathan and Krol, so far.
Really??? Someone thinks we are just as good with Porcello over Fister and we aren't really losing much?
