Gio Gonzalez and Martin Prado

[batcave76]

Verlander's first two MLB starts

11.3 IP 15 H 9 ER 5 BB 7 K 7.15 ERA 1.77 WHIP

Turner's first two MLB starts

9.6 IP 10 H 8 ER 3 BB 8 K 7.45 ERA 1.34 WHIP

Greg Maddux first five MLB starts

30.0 IP 43 H 18 ER 11 BB 19 SO 5.40 ERA 1.80 WHIP


Small sample sizes


Now Minor League Stats before age 23:

Verlander 0.90 WHIP 5.23 SO/BB 10.3 SO/G

Baugh 1.09 WHIP 4.31 SO/BB 9.7 SO/G

Turner 1.14 WHIP 3.66 SO/BB 7.7 SO/G

Porcello 1.19 WHIP 2.12 SO/BB 5.4 SO/G

A. Miller 1.19 WHIP 2.69 SO/BB 7.6 SO/G

Maddux 1.19 WHIP 2.06 SO/BB 5.7 SO/G

Wheatland 1.25 WHIP 3.32 SO/BB 8.1 SO/G

Gonzalez 1.26 WHIP 2.54 SO/BB 10.3 SO/G

Sleeth 1.39 WHIP 2.35 SO/BB 7.4 SO/G

Greisinger 1.45 WHIP 1.87 SO/BB 5.8 SO/G



Baugh, Wheatland and Sleeth, all, had arm troubles in the minors. It is more about bad luck, then not living up to prospect status.

Minor league stats for pitchers can be predictive. Most people understand WHIP (under 1.20 is preferred). SO/BB Ratio above 2.00 is good, but above 3.00 is preferred at the minor level. Anything above 4.00 is outstanding. Next, SO/G shows somewhat the quality of stuff. Anything above 7.0 is good, anything above 8.0 is outstanding.

So, if you evaluate pitchers with these in mind, Baugh and Wheatland projected to be a #1 or #2 (before they got hurt). Sleeth and Greisinger were reaches given their stats. Miller projected as a #3, but once he arrived, he inexplicably could not maintain control he had in the early minors.

Aside his SO/G ratio, Gio Gonzalez did not project above a #3 starter, which is about where he is at.

I showed Greg Maddux' career, only to offer hope for someone like Porcello. I am not saying Porcello will be the next Greg Maddux, but there are a quite few similarities in the minor and early MLB careers.

They were all 1st rd picks that, for whatever reason, never succeeded in the MLs. That my only point.

 

[deathroh]

Mitch[/color]]A's GM Billy Beane in enamored with Tigers' top pitching prospect Jacob Turner, and Detroit is willing to move him for Gonzalez. They balked at request for Castellanos and Smyly in addition to Turner . Wow, that's a bit too much.

Exactly.

 

[deathroh]

And just for the record....Prado last 3 years away:

.268 BAVG .323 OBP .406 SLG .729 OPS 73.61 RC/650

versus Delmon Younng

.284 BAVG .319 OBP .441 SLG .760 OPS 76.82 RC/650


I understand if Prado plays 2b that it is a position of need. However, from all other viewpoints, if Prado does not play 2B (i.e OF), or play it well (above average defense), this would actually be a downgrade.

How about a comparison of Prado with Det's 2nd basemen the last 3 years, then Young vs potential replacements? I really don't think there's any way they make that trade in order for Prado to play OF.

 

[Rebbiv]

And just for the record....Prado last 3 years away:

.268 BAVG .323 OBP .406 SLG .729 OPS 73.61 RC/650

versus Delmon Younng

.284 BAVG .319 OBP .441 SLG .760 OPS 76.82 RC/650


I understand if Prado plays 2b that it is a position of need. However, from all other viewpoints, if Prado does not play 2B (i.e OF), or play it well (above average defense), this would actually be a downgrade.

How about a comparison of Prado with Det's 2nd basemen the last 3 years, then Young vs potential replacements? I really don't think there's any way they make that trade in order for Prado to play OF.

Last 3 years

DET 2B = 76.60 RC/650 .727 OPS
MLB AVG 2B = 77.50 RC/650 .727 OPS

Prado = 73.61 RC/650 .729 OPS


Surely Prado is not an upgrade to the players we have had at 2B. Even if he was, he is only an average MLB 2B.

I wouldn't mind a Young for Prado trade, as long as Prado replaces Raburn at 2B. Raburn is a far better option in LF than Young.

 

[deathroh]

How about a comparison of Prado with Det's 2nd basemen the last 3 years, then Young vs potential replacements? I really don't think there's any way they make that trade in order for Prado to play OF.

Last 3 years

DET 2B = 76.60 RC/650 .727 OPS
MLB AVG 2B = 77.50 RC/650 .727 OPS

Prado = 73.61 RC/650 .729 OPS


Surely Prado is not an upgrade to the players we have had at 2B. Even if he was, he is only an average MLB 2B.

I wouldn't mind a Young for Prado trade, as long as Prado replaces Raburn at 2B. Raburn is a far better option in LF than Young.

Right, that scenario is what I'm looking at. I am surprised to see Prado just hovering right around the 2B average though.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Chris_Iott Chris Iott
Report: A's asked for Jacob Turner, Drew Smyly, Nick Castellanos in Gio Gonzalez talks http://bit.ly/u02JuU #Tigers

 

[Mitchrapp]

Of course Prado would play 2nd. They wouldn't put him in the OF.

 

[tycobb420]

Chris_Iott Chris Iott
Report: A's asked for Jacob Turner, Drew Smyly, Nick Castellanos in Gio Gonzalez talks http://bit.ly/u02JuU #Tigers

Oakland is on crack...but in 5 years, we could get them all back in free agency!

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I'd give them that for Gonzalez and Bailey. Word is they are looking to package the two in a big deal. Braves are also supposedly looking to package Prado w/ Jurrjens in a trade. The Braves seem like a better fit, but I'm hesitant to trade with either team.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

This is a big trade...

jonmorosi Jon Morosi
#Padres acquire Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger from #Reds for Mat Latos. Pretty good haul.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I would have loved Latos. Not familiar with most of the players the Padres got though.

 

[buddyboy2121]

Mitch[/color]]I would have loved Latos. Not familiar with most of the players the Padres got though.

save you some time, they gave up A LOT.

 

[jimrice]

I've been in my car alot for about a week, listening to the daytime sports talk. Almost all callers and hosts are in favor of the Gonzalez deal, it seems. No one is really talking about his road struggles, they are enamored with his k's and his "wins".

I'm not in favor of Turner for Gio straight up, let alone adding other prospects.

Interesting contrast between the board and the radio when it comes to this possible trade.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I wouldn't be too upset with Turner for Gio straight up. Any more is crazy but Turner could be a bust.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch[/color]]I wouldn't be too upset with Turner for Gio straight up. Any more is crazy but Turner could be a bust.

So could Gio

 

[Mitchrapp]

But so far he hasn't, so there's less chance of a bust. Regardless what kind if stats you throw out there, he's been
pretty good.

 

[Rebbiv]

Let's start by saying that Gio plays in a pitcher friendly park. Add to that, the AL West has 3 of the 5 top pitcher friendly parks, so even his away stats can be skewed.

And for the record, I think Gio is somewhere between Scherzer and Porcello when it comes to starting. Now, Gio is probably at best a #3. However, Turner has the potential to be a #1, but currently only projecting to be a #2.

Could Turner bomb? Sure. But based on predictive stats from the minors and considering Gio's predictive stats from a pitching friendly envirornment, I would argue they have equal chances of succeeding or failing.

 

[food4thought]

I am much more interested in Prodo. Offensively, not much of an upgrade.

Defensively, a cardboard cutout of a football dummy wearing a miniskirt would be better than Raburn at 2B.

 

[Rebbiv]

I am much more interested in Prodo. Offensively, not much of an upgrade.

Defensively, a cardboard cutout of a football dummy wearing a miniskirt would be better than Raburn at 2B.

Although Raburn sucks defensively at 2B, Prado is hardly even average.

 

[Thumb]

Let's start by saying that Gio plays in a pitcher friendly park. Add to that, the AL West has 3 of the 5 top pitcher friendly parks, so even his away stats can be skewed.

And for the record, I think Gio is somewhere between Scherzer and Porcello when it comes to starting. Now, Gio is probably at best a #3. However, Turner has the potential to be a #1, but currently only projecting to be a #2.

Could Turner bomb? Sure. But based on predictive stats from the minors and considering Gio's predictive stats from a pitching friendly envirornment, I would argue they have equal chances of succeeding or failing.

I guess the overall I would look at is that Gio is MLB ready, while he may not be a #1 or #2, he's still instant impact.

I don't believe Turner is ready, and we may ruin him if we're forced to make him our 5th starter and not let him mature for at least a full season at AAA.

I don't know that Gio is the answer, but I don't feel Turner is.

I would not be upset if they traded for him straight up, but I would not be super excited either.