I hope the tigers sign ichiro to a 1 or 2 year deal

[mjsb2]

WAR gets talked about all the time and D-WAR might be the worse yet. AJ for example, 3.4 last year for D-WAR, better than anyone else in both leagues. Blew Trout's 2012 away. This year its .8. No way AJ got that much worse. If you don't get the opportunities to make great plays in big situations they can't be made and D-WAR doesn't have a chance to improve.

Its a worthless stat.

Not entirely worthless, but yeah, it's pretty bad.

UZR, over the sample of one season, is basically worthless.

But over multiple years it actually has some value, though still far from being perfect, just helps give you a general range of how good a defender is.

 

[mjsb2]

Anibel Sanchez has the 12th best FIP in the majors over the last three seasons.

8 million a year is more than appropriate for him.

If the Tigers can get him at that figure they should pull the trigger.

He'll probably command 3-4 years at 12-13 mill per, which is fair value for him.

At that price, I'd expect the Tigers to lock him up.

More than that though and they probably let him walk.

 

[mjsb2]

He's going to get over 10, probably closer to 12 a year. Not worth it when we already have decent pitchers on the roster who are cheaper.

If they sign him, they probably trade Porcello for a corner OFer or a SS.

 

[spockmaster]

And Valverde most likely.

i sincerely hope not.

 

[tomdalton22]

i sincerely hope not.

You hope he isn't gone?

 

[spockmaster]

You hope he isn't gone?

i hope he is gone. i thought mitch was saying valverde would get a pay hike.

 

[Mitchrapp]

i hope he is gone. i thought mitch was saying valverde would get a pay hike.

No, I expect he will be gone - no pay hike. He's shaky but gets it done most of the time and I'm not sure you can get anyone half way decent for what Valverde was getting paid. But I don't imagine they'd resign him.

 

[mjsb2]

He'll probably command 3-4 years at 12-13 mill per, which is fair value for him.

At that price, I'd expect the Tigers to lock him up.

More than that though and they probably let him walk.

In the same vein, fangraphs wrote an article about the change of Sanchez from August to September.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/september-or-august-anibal-for-game-three/

 

[Mitchrapp]

That's interesting. Maybe he did change a thing or two and it made him a better pitcher. Though one month of improved stuff (September) is not a whole bunch. Looks like his fastball speed improved and he's throwing more curves.

 

[mjsb2]

That's interesting. Maybe he did change a thing or two and it made him a better pitcher. Though one month of improved stuff (September) is not a whole bunch. Looks like his fastball speed improved and he's throwing more curves.

Yeah, I was mostly interested by the different release points.

The writer suggested it was probably a change in where he stands on the rubber.

Small sample size for sure, but will be interesting to follow, and if it is sustainable, then signing him would probably end up being worth it.

Although, if it is sustainable and the Tigers go on to the WS, and Sanchez pithces well, it could boost his value some.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

That's interesting. Maybe he did change a thing or two and it made him a better pitcher. Though one month of improved stuff (September) is not a whole bunch. Looks like his fastball speed improved and he's throwing more curves.

improving his velocity is huge for sanchez (well for everyone)...but especially him because he already has one of the 10-15 best changeups in the game. The increase of a mph difference between his fastball and change has helped set the table imo.

 

[mhughes0021]

espn report saying rangers letting hamilton speak with teams prior to an offer. Was expected...

 

[Mitchrapp]

If I was the Rangers I'll let Hamilton walk and go sign 2 solid players.

 

[Thumb]

If I was the Rangers I'll let Hamilton walk and go sign 2 solid players.

Unless they are trying to cut some payroll.

There was some talk of them trying to trade Andrus away too.

 

[Rebbiv]

Let's use Linear Weights (Runs Created and UZR/150).

Last 3 years

AL AVG RF 85.44 RC/650 (.771 OPS) 0.0 UZR/150 = 85.44 Runs

AL AVG LF 80.52 RC/650 (.741 OPS) 0.0 UZR/150 = 80.52 Runs

AL AVG CF 80.02 RC/650 (.736 OPS) 0.0 UZR/150 = 80.02 Runs


Basically, over the last 3 years, there is virtually no difference in production from LF to CF.

Last 3 years

DET AVG CF 83.01 RC/650 (.741 OPS) 5.2 UZR/150 = 88.21 Runs (8.19 runs above avg)

DET AVG LF 86.73 RC/650 (.769 OPS) 1.0 UZR/150 = 87.73 Runs (7.21 runs above avg)

DET AVG RF 77.26 RC/650 (.737 OPS) - 8.9 UZR/150 = 68.36 Runs (-17.08 runs below avg)



Last 3 years Away RC/650 + OF UZR/150

Hamilton 112.68 RC/650 (.891 OPS) 0.3 UZR/150 = 112.98 Runs

Swisher 98.03 RC/650 (.841 OPS) 4.7 UZR/150 = 102.73 Runs

Hunter 92.48 RC/650 (.815 OPS) 3.4 UZR/150 = 95.88 Runs

Victorino 90.04 RC/650 (.774 OPS) 4.1 UZR/150 = 94.14 Runs

Bourn 80.44 RC/650 (.704 OPS) 11.9 UZR/150 = 92.34 Runs

Suzuki 78.36 RC/650 (.710 OPS) 7.90 UZR/150 = 86.26 Runs

Jackson 79.58 RC/650 (.737 OPS) 6.2 UZR/150 = 85.78 Runs



Gomes 94.59 RC/650 (.796 OPS) -9.7 UZR/150 = 84.89 Runs

Pagan 84.33 RC/650 (.740 OPS) 0.5 UZR/150 = 84.83 Runs

BJ Upton 82.79 RC/650 (.755 OPS) 0.3 UZR/150 = 83.09 Runs


Ross 67.63 RC/650 (.686 OPS) 0.0 UZR/150 = 67.63 Runs


Bottom 5 DET and/or FA OFers (500 away PA min)

D. Young 71.01 RC/650 (.725 OPS) -9.5 UZR/150 = 61.51 Runs

Fukudome 66.00 RC/650 (.670 OPS) -7.9 UZR/150 = 58.10 Runs

Boesch 68.24 RC/650 (.682 OPS) -10.7 UZR/150 = 57.54 Runs

L. Scott 65.86 RC/650 (.675 OPS) -10.7 UZR/150 = 55.16 Runs

Ibanez 58.54 RC/650 (.641 OPS) -10.6 UZR/150 = 47.94 Runs



While Cody Ross could be an improvement over Boesch and Young (not by much), it isn't exactly what I was looking for. An average RFer will get us about 3 more wins. A player like Swisher would mean 7 more wins, Hamilton = 9 more wins. The question then becomes cost.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

nice analysis rebbiv

as I've stated multiple times in this thread cost is the biggest factor...i think what the tigers do will be driven be demand per player. On the upside no matter who they sign that individual will be an improvement over Boesch's production from this season.

 

[tigersofjustice]

You mean Porcello and an unknown. Nothing wrong with having 4 solid pitchers.

You are calling Smyly an unknown at this point? A guy who put up great minor league numbers and then came up and pitched great for the Tigers in his rookie season? He's really not that unknown, at minimum he is a known solid #5 starter.

The Tigers had the most productive starting rotation in the league this season, there is really no reason to go throw money at this team's strength.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You are calling Smyly an unknown at this point? A guy who put up great minor league numbers and then came up and pitched great for the Tigers in his rookie season? He's really not that unknown, at minimum he is a known solid #5 starter.

The Tigers had the most productive starting rotation in the league this season, there is really no reason to go throw money at this team's strength.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm saying. And I don't want a solid #5 starter. I want a 1 a bunch of 2's and a 3.

 

[tomdalton22]

You are calling Smyly an unknown at this point? A guy who put up great minor league numbers and then came up and pitched great for the Tigers in his rookie season? He's really not that unknown, at minimum he is a known solid #5 starter.

The Tigers had the most productive starting rotation in the league this season, there is really no reason to go throw money at this team's strength.

Smyly is definitely still an unknown.

 

[kalinecountry]

a few years ago Ichiro would have fit in nicely at the top of the order and been a plus defender with his glove and arm. imo not now.

Figure out who you would rather have, Rick Porcello or Anibal Sanchez. If they sign Sanchez they probably trade/package Porcello for a need.
They keep Rick, they get pretty much the same as they have gotten, a kid without an out pitch, problems with lefty batters, and he might rather get some 'strange' than get outs, letting the little head do his thinking, ie. his mind set wanders. jmo.