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https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2021/0...-he-reach-500-homers-3000-hits-this-year.html
Miggy Milestone Tracker: Will he reach 500 Homers, 3,000 Hits this year?
Mlive
Will Miguel Cabrera reached 3,000 hits and 500 home runs in 2021?
Will he achieve both feats in the same at-bat?
The first is quite possible. The second is a longshot, although it?s fun to dream about.
And any projection of exactly when the Detroit Tigers star will reach those hallowed numbers is fraught with uncertainty.
The biggest doubt is whether Cabrera can remain healthy in 2021, 2022 and 2023, the final three years of his contract that will take him up to the age of 40 and, presumably, retirement.
In 2019, Cabrera played in a team-high 136 games despite playing on a balky knee and looking increasingly, uh, puffy as the season went on.
In 2020, Cabrera played in a team-high 57 games in the shortened season and actually looked like a much younger, healthier version of himself.
The shortened season pushed back some of Miggy?s most sought-after milestones, but not as much as you would think. He hit 10 home runs in 231 plate appearances in 2020 compared to just 12 in 549 plate appearances in 2019. If he keeps up that pace, the 500-home run mark will come sooner than anyone expects.
We?ll get to the nitty-gritty in a bit, but here?s what everyone wants to know: At his current calculated pace, Cabrera will 500 home runs late in the 2021 season -- Sept. 17 in Tampa Bay if you want to be precise -- and 3,000 hits early in the 2022 season -- April 12, 2022 is our best guess.
How did we project that?
This is unscientific, with no precise aging models or anything else overly complicated. We generously assumed that Cabrera would continue to hit at the same rate he did in the combined 2019-2020 seasons. To deduce playing time and factor in the risk of injuries, we took the 2019-2020 seasons as a base (when Cabrera played in 87 percent of scheduled games) and reduced that by 10 percent each year.
https://www.mlive.com/resizer/ceq-X...m/advancelocal/DPRZDWN7QBHONHJPR745AQYRII.png
Of course, projections rarely work that neatly in real life. Yes, Cabrera might play in 126 games in 2021, but he also might play in 150 games. Or zero games.
If he plays every day, he has a chance to reach both big milestones this season. If he suffers a serious injury, everything gets pushed back at least a year -- or maybe more.
The power numbers are a big question mark, as well. Cabrera hit some mammoth homers in 2020, but it also appeared that some of his doubles turned into homers. What if they turn back into doubles in 2021? What if the composition of the ball changes? What impact could rule changes have on the game? There are a lot of unknowns.
HITS
Cabrera currently has 2,866 career hits, getting his 2,000th as a Tiger in 2020. That?s tied with Harold Baines for 46th place on the all-time list.
He is only 12 hits away from surpassing Omar Vizquel (2,877) for most hits by a Venezuela-born player.
The current projection says he will finish his career with 3,198 hits, which would put him in 15th place, just ahead of Cal Ripken Jr. (3,184).
Albert Pujols, the only other active player ahead of him, has 3,236 hits. Pujols, now 41, is in the final year of his contract in 2021.
RUNS
Cabrera is currently 79th all time with 1,457 runs scored, well behind Pujols (1,843).
If he finishes with 1,578, as projected, he?ll finish 54th in history, just one run behind Rogers Hornsby.
Cabrera has lost and will continue to lose runs to late-game pinch-runners in the years to come, which could affect his total.
RBIs
Pujols reached the 2,000-RBI mark in 2019 in Detroit; unless things change dramatically, Cabrera will fall short. (Our projection is 1,893).
That number would still put him at No. 12 in all of baseball, behind greats Ty Cobb (1,938) and Willie Mays (1,903) and ahead of Carl Yastrzemski (1,844) and Ted Williams (1,839).
HOME RUNS
A year ago, Cabrera?s power had waned to the extent that 500 home runs no longer seemed like a certainty. Was his bounce back in 2020 a fluke or will see more dingers from Cabrera in the final years of his career.
As it stands, his 487 home runs are ranked 30th in baseball history. Fred McGriff (493), Lou Gehrig (493) and Eddie Murray (504) are in front of him.
If he finishes his career with 524 home runs, as we project, he?d finish at No. 20, ahead of Frank Thomas, Ted Williams and Willie McCovey, who all had 521.
DOUBLES
Cabrera is already in the top-25 all-time in doubles, but he only added four to his total in 2020. We project that he?ll finish with 624, which would tie Hank Aaron for 13th all-time, behind greats like Ty Cobb (723), Craig Biggio (668) and George Brett (665) and modern players Adrian Beltre (636) and David Ortiz (632).
WALKS
This is the only category in which Cabrera trails an active player other than Pujols. Walk-machine Joey Votto is ahead of him by 65 walks and counting.
At his current pace, Cabrera will finish with 1,286 walks, 48th all-time.
Miggy Milestone Tracker: Will he reach 500 Homers, 3,000 Hits this year?
Mlive
Will Miguel Cabrera reached 3,000 hits and 500 home runs in 2021?
Will he achieve both feats in the same at-bat?
The first is quite possible. The second is a longshot, although it?s fun to dream about.
And any projection of exactly when the Detroit Tigers star will reach those hallowed numbers is fraught with uncertainty.
The biggest doubt is whether Cabrera can remain healthy in 2021, 2022 and 2023, the final three years of his contract that will take him up to the age of 40 and, presumably, retirement.
In 2019, Cabrera played in a team-high 136 games despite playing on a balky knee and looking increasingly, uh, puffy as the season went on.
In 2020, Cabrera played in a team-high 57 games in the shortened season and actually looked like a much younger, healthier version of himself.
The shortened season pushed back some of Miggy?s most sought-after milestones, but not as much as you would think. He hit 10 home runs in 231 plate appearances in 2020 compared to just 12 in 549 plate appearances in 2019. If he keeps up that pace, the 500-home run mark will come sooner than anyone expects.
We?ll get to the nitty-gritty in a bit, but here?s what everyone wants to know: At his current calculated pace, Cabrera will 500 home runs late in the 2021 season -- Sept. 17 in Tampa Bay if you want to be precise -- and 3,000 hits early in the 2022 season -- April 12, 2022 is our best guess.
How did we project that?
This is unscientific, with no precise aging models or anything else overly complicated. We generously assumed that Cabrera would continue to hit at the same rate he did in the combined 2019-2020 seasons. To deduce playing time and factor in the risk of injuries, we took the 2019-2020 seasons as a base (when Cabrera played in 87 percent of scheduled games) and reduced that by 10 percent each year.
https://www.mlive.com/resizer/ceq-X...m/advancelocal/DPRZDWN7QBHONHJPR745AQYRII.png
Of course, projections rarely work that neatly in real life. Yes, Cabrera might play in 126 games in 2021, but he also might play in 150 games. Or zero games.
If he plays every day, he has a chance to reach both big milestones this season. If he suffers a serious injury, everything gets pushed back at least a year -- or maybe more.
The power numbers are a big question mark, as well. Cabrera hit some mammoth homers in 2020, but it also appeared that some of his doubles turned into homers. What if they turn back into doubles in 2021? What if the composition of the ball changes? What impact could rule changes have on the game? There are a lot of unknowns.
HITS
Cabrera currently has 2,866 career hits, getting his 2,000th as a Tiger in 2020. That?s tied with Harold Baines for 46th place on the all-time list.
He is only 12 hits away from surpassing Omar Vizquel (2,877) for most hits by a Venezuela-born player.
The current projection says he will finish his career with 3,198 hits, which would put him in 15th place, just ahead of Cal Ripken Jr. (3,184).
Albert Pujols, the only other active player ahead of him, has 3,236 hits. Pujols, now 41, is in the final year of his contract in 2021.
RUNS
Cabrera is currently 79th all time with 1,457 runs scored, well behind Pujols (1,843).
If he finishes with 1,578, as projected, he?ll finish 54th in history, just one run behind Rogers Hornsby.
Cabrera has lost and will continue to lose runs to late-game pinch-runners in the years to come, which could affect his total.
RBIs
Pujols reached the 2,000-RBI mark in 2019 in Detroit; unless things change dramatically, Cabrera will fall short. (Our projection is 1,893).
That number would still put him at No. 12 in all of baseball, behind greats Ty Cobb (1,938) and Willie Mays (1,903) and ahead of Carl Yastrzemski (1,844) and Ted Williams (1,839).
HOME RUNS
A year ago, Cabrera?s power had waned to the extent that 500 home runs no longer seemed like a certainty. Was his bounce back in 2020 a fluke or will see more dingers from Cabrera in the final years of his career.
As it stands, his 487 home runs are ranked 30th in baseball history. Fred McGriff (493), Lou Gehrig (493) and Eddie Murray (504) are in front of him.
If he finishes his career with 524 home runs, as we project, he?d finish at No. 20, ahead of Frank Thomas, Ted Williams and Willie McCovey, who all had 521.
DOUBLES
Cabrera is already in the top-25 all-time in doubles, but he only added four to his total in 2020. We project that he?ll finish with 624, which would tie Hank Aaron for 13th all-time, behind greats like Ty Cobb (723), Craig Biggio (668) and George Brett (665) and modern players Adrian Beltre (636) and David Ortiz (632).
WALKS
This is the only category in which Cabrera trails an active player other than Pujols. Walk-machine Joey Votto is ahead of him by 65 walks and counting.
At his current pace, Cabrera will finish with 1,286 walks, 48th all-time.
