My way too early yardage prediction thread

[tomdalton22]

They do keep track of QBs under pressure. That stat usually is littered with very poor numbers by QBs. Hurries and hits matter alot. Getting a QB off his throwing spot or normal throwing motion is huge. This is a big reason the Lions were the best in 3rd down stop %.

Pressures lead to more turnovers than sacks. Strip sacks only lead to turnovers and that's if they are recovered.

Green and Greenwood have produced with solid and good coverage in their limited time. I consider that good depth. Vaughn is an experienced player with the Colts, a starter for many games. I'd consider that solid depth. It's not just a body.

Slay and Mathis can be left on islands at times, and sometimes they get help. Like most CBs. And if Slay develops and proves to be good, then we may be even more set.

The top comp % under pressure last year was Peyton Manning with 58.1% on 136 attempts.

let's look at some more numbers

Lions last in 4th down conversion percentage
22nd in takeaways
17th in INTs

You would think with their "good" pass rush that they would create more turnovers....I mean they weren't sacking anybody so it was all hurries...shouldn't it create more INTs???

 

[Mitchrapp]

I look at every category and make an overall judgment. Some were lower teens, some were upper teens, YPG was 23rd. Screams average to me. Plus there was an injury factor with Houston playing hurt giving up big long TDs.

Based on everything it was average. You people and most of the media look at yards per game. But none of that matters, average or if you think they suck.

The best of the secondary is back, there is a scheme change that fits the personnel, there is more experience and a new starting player was added. We can count on a good LB coverage and good pass rush. Pass rush may be even be improved for several reasons. Scheme, Ansah/Taylor year 2, original starter Jones for Young, more blitzing from non precitable alignments.

You never look at overall. Remember "The stats said average" except they were ranked 20 but you convenient took a category out.

 

[kdp80]

let's look at some more numbers

Lions last in 4th down conversion percentage
22nd in takeaways
17th in INTs

You would think with their "good" pass rush that they would create more turnovers....I mean they weren't sacking anybody so it was all hurries...shouldn't it create more INTs???

Last year Chris Houston was the Lions #1 corner. Those numbers are meaningless heading into a new year. How bout we wait and see how these young and just signed secondary players perform before we assume they are doomed? Just the fact that Chris Houston and Louis "I'm always late to the ball, and can't practice" Delmas are great steps in suring up this secondary.

 

[LKP]

You never look at overall. Remember "The stats said average" except they were ranked 20 but you convenient took a category out.

I look at everything. YPA is limited due to injury factor. They are not 20th ranked. There are some categories more weighted than others too. TDS and comp % are big ones. Ints too where they were average overall.

Injury factor means everything for YPA. Houston isn't on the team anymore either. Someone messes up and gives up an 80 yard TD, somone messes up and gives up a 40 yarder. It's still one mess up but it's 40 more yards. This is why YPA is lower weighted.

Looking at everything they had an average secondary.

By everything I mean context too. It's the perfect combo of stats and context.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I look at everything. YPA is limited due to injury factor. They are not 20th ranked. There are some categories more weighted than others too. TDS and comp % are big ones. Ints too where they were average overall.

Injury factor means everything for YPA. Houston isn't on the team anymore either. Someone messes up and gives up an 80 yard TD, somone messes up and gives up a 40 yarder. It's still one mess up but it's 40 more yards. This is why YPA is lower weighted.

Looking at everything they had an average secondary.

By everything I mean context too. It's the perfect combo of stats and context.

Who cares about the injuries..There's nothing to say they ranked better than 20. Did they do something's better than 20, sure. But overall they were below average.

 

[LKP]

And really to me, I don't compare very much to other teams. Every team plays a different schedule, facing different opponents week by week with different injury circumstances. If Seattle played our schedule with Sherman playing hurt most of the year, Earl Thomas not practicing, Chancellor on a bum ankle and Thurmond in and out, they could have an average secondary too.

It's either an acceptable threshold of comp %, TDS, yards, YPA ,ints etc or it's not. The Lions secondary play was acceptable other than ints and will be improved with scheme and experience.

 

[tomdalton22]

Last year Chris Houston was the Lions #1 corner. Those numbers are meaningless heading into a new year. How bout we wait and see how these young and just signed secondary players perform before we assume they are doomed? Just the fact that Chris Houston and Louis "I'm always late to the ball, and can't practice" Delmas are great steps in suring up this secondary.

I was talking about last year.

 

[LKP]

Who cares about the injuries..There's nothing to say they ranked better than 20. Did they do something's better than 20, sure. But overall they were below average.

Injuries matter and are part of the context. They were an average secondary. And even if they were "20" last year, that has nothing to do with this year. They could be first this year given their talent and pass rush. 2013 doesn't mean jack for 2014.

 

[LKP]

If you are not high on Slay for 2014 you got a problem analzying talent
Quin is a good player. That's just a fact.
Ihedigbo will help run support and blitz and shouldn't be a liability in this scheme. Is Delmas that much better than him? I thought you all hated Delmas?
Mathis is a solid vet who won't make mistakes. Given his play, I wouldn't throw him out with age just yet. He could fall of the cliff like KVB did, but it's far from a certainty.

 

[tomdalton22]

Injuries matter and are part of the context. They were an average secondary. And even if they were "20" last year, that has nothing to do with this year. They could be first this year given their talent and pass rush. 2013 doesn't mean jack for 2014.

The talent in the secondary is not there for them to be first. The pass rush has the talent and potential but has not lived up to expectations. Defense is kind of like the O-Line...everybody needs to be doing their jobs for it to work. You need the pass rush and coverage by everybody to be successful. If there is a breakdown there is a good chance that they get burnt.

 

[Mitchrapp]

And really to me, I don't compare very much to other teams. Every team plays a different schedule, facing different opponents week by week with different injury circumstances. If Seattle played our schedule with Sherman playing hurt most of the year, Earl Thomas not practicing, Chancellor on a bum ankle and Thurmond in and out, they could have an average secondary too.

It's either an acceptable threshold of comp %, TDS, yards, YPA ,ints etc or it's not. The Lions secondary play was acceptable other than ints and will be improved with scheme and experience.

Sherman wasn't hurt..he could be out all year and Seattle's defense still smokes are? Schedule, lmao. We played the weakest..

 

[LKP]

If we are going to talk about old people like Mathis (33) that will have reduced good play because of age:
Let's talk about Jared Allen (32), let's talk about Julius Peppers (34), let's talk about Raiola (35), lets talk about Lance Briggs (33), Charles Tillmans (33)

 

[LKP]

Sherman wasn't hurt..he could be out all year and Seattle's defense still smokes are? Schedule, lmao. We played the weakest..

LOL they would suck without Sherman or Sherman hurt. Our schedule was not easy with the offenses we faced even with Flynn.

 

[tomdalton22]

If we are going to talk about old people like Mathis (33) that will have reduced good play because of age:
Let's talk about Jared Allen (32), let's talk about Julius Peppers (34), let's talk about Raiola (35), lets talk about Lance Briggs (33), Charles Tillmans (33)

we can but I think most of us are talking about the Lions.

 

[LKP]

we can but I think most of us are talking about the Lions.

Lions play both those teams twice. And both those teams are relying on those players more than we rely on Mathis.

 

[dubbsco]

Why do I have to be high on Slay? Tons of players have talent and don't put it together on the field.

When you say Ihedigbo shouldn't be a liability, and Mathis wont make mistakes, that's when you bury yourself in this argument. You need guys that can be playmakers. Players that can turn a game around and give the offense second and third chances. Those guys can't do that.

 

[tomdalton22]

Lions play both those teams twice. And both those teams are relying on those players more than we rely on Mathis.

how can you say that the Lions are going to rely on a DB less than another team relies on a DE?

 

[LKP]

Why do I have to be high on Slay? Tons of players have talent and don't put it together on the field.

When you say Ihedigbo shouldn't be a liability, and Mathis wont make mistakes, that's when you bury yourself in this argument. You need guys that can be playmakers. Players that can turn a game around and give the offense second and third chances. Those guys can't do that.

I didn't bury anything. You just overrate gamblers.

Slay and Mathis can get picks. 6 from the safeties again, 7 from the LBs again, one Dline tip and 4 from the CBs (compared to 2) can work well. 18 picks is enough. We were 13th in picks last year with 15. 18 would do well.

Especially when their fumble recovery rate gets hurt for more than 7 fumbles recovered. On top of the reduction in turnovers from our offense.

You know who gambled. Wright and Alphonso Smith (7 picks combined 2011). They sucked. You want the guys better in coverage like Mathis, not the gamblers.

And you do realize the Lions have a guy who was number 2 in ints last year. Sherman 8, then Levy 6 (2nd in league tied)

 

[LKP]

how can you say that the Lions are going to rely on a DB less than another team relies on a DE?

Allen has to be thier pass rush. DE more important than number 2 CB.

 

[tomdalton22]

Allen has to be thier pass rush. DE more important than number 2 CB.

well, Allen had 11.5 sacks last year...more than both Lion's starting DE's combined. He may regress but he may not.