Ngata may not be ready for week 1

[brewer229]

I just think it's a priority, bro. We just lost the best DT in the game in Suh. Now, we just acquired arguably a top 3 DT/NT in the game in Halata. He's productive, his knowledge for the game is unmatched, he's a winner, a leader. Why not lock him up?! Lol. You don't break the bank for him but you make him a happy man. I don't see why giving him an extra couple of years hurts this team. It's a win win situation IMO.

I just don't see the value of doing it now. It's not like a good season from Ngata is suddenly going to cause his stock to go up. His agent is going to demand he be paid as a top 5 DT right now. If he goes out and plays well he is going to demand a top 5 DT salary. So essentially you are paying top of the market right now. Now a injury filled season, you can get him cheaper next year or choose not to sign him. More data is not a bad thing.

He should play well in our system, but an aging fat guy can breakdown quick. If ngata is willing to take a steep discount for a 3 year contract now, then it is worth the risk, but he should ask for top 5 money, just wait it out.

 

[cheeno]

I just don't see the value of doing it now. It's not like a good season from Ngata is suddenly going to cause his stock to go up. His agent is going to demand he be paid as a top 5 DT right now. If he goes out and plays well he is going to demand a top 5 DT salary. So essentially you are paying top of the market right now. Now a injury filled season, you can get him cheaper next year or choose not to sign him. More data is not a bad thing.

He should play well in our system, but an aging fat guy can breakdown quick. If ngata is willing to take a steep discount for a 3 year contract now, then it is worth the risk, but he should ask for top 5 money, just wait it out.

That's my thoughtsexactly. I can see the value of extending him Tony but he's not going to take a discount. Add to it all those factors, injury, suspension, age, position. Not a recipe for a good deal on the Lions part.

 

[LKP]

If you want a 3 year extension (2016-2018), and paying top 5 DT money anyway, it's cheaper to do it right now. You spread the signing bonus over 4 years not 3 and move the base salary around 4 years and not 3. Plus the whole risk losing him thing or you have to franchise him (12 million or more)

 

[tomdalton22]

If you want a 3 year extension (2016-2018), and paying top 5 DT money anyway, it's cheaper to do it right now. You spread the signing bonus over 4 years not 3 and move the base salary around 4 years and not 3. Plus the whole risk losing him thing or you have to franchise him (12 million or more)

The Lions are taking all of the risk if they were to sign him to an extension now. They haven't seen him play a down in a 4-3 defense, he will be 32 when he hits FA and he is injured. He won't get top 5 DT money if he hits FA next year...he will be 32! Wait it out and let him hit FA.

 

[LKP]

The Lions are taking all of the risk if they were to sign him to an extension now. They haven't seen him play a down in a 4-3 defense, he will be 32 when he hits FA and he is injured. He won't get top 5 DT money if he hits FA next year...he will be 32! Wait it out and let him hit FA.

A 3-4 team will pay him. Lions risk losing him for sure.

 

[brewer229]

If you want a 3 year extension (2016-2018), and paying top 5 DT money anyway, it's cheaper to do it right now. You spread the signing bonus over 4 years not 3 and move the base salary around 4 years and not 3. Plus the whole risk losing him thing or you have to franchise him (12 million or more)

Its not cheaper, you are just spreading the money differently. If you reduced the cap hit for 2015, it would actually be more expensive (total cap hit wise) in 2016-2018 to sign him now vs after the season.

His franchise number will likely be 10.2 million (120% of his 2015 salary). I expect the cap number for DTs to go down in 2016. 2015 cap numbers for DTs were extra high do to Suh and McCoy numbers.

 

[tomdalton22]

A 3-4 team will pay him. Lions risk losing him for sure.

They might...because he has proven to be a 3-4 NT...not a DT in a 4-3. If he were a FA last year there is no team that runs a 4-3 that would have given him top 5 money. Why would the Lions do it now?

 

[LKP]

They might...because he has proven to be a 3-4 NT...not a DT in a 4-3. If he were a FA last year there is no team that runs a 4-3 that would have given him top 5 money. Why would the Lions do it now?

Ngata is a beast. They shouldn't risk losing him. Structure it as a three year extension (really two year deal 2015/2016) deal that you can cut him in 2017 with no problem. It's a win win for the Lions. Even doing something like this.

A 3 year extension for 30 million is more realistic for Ngata which would add 3 more years on top of the 2015 season. Ngata could be a Lion through the 2018 season.
A ten million signing bonus would be fair and spread out over 4 years (2015 plus the three year extension) for a 2.5 million charge each year. This would make Ngata happy because he would get 14 million instead of 8.5 million this season. Another 6 million in 2016 would be a nice salary for would be 32 year old. Ngata may want more money in year 2 however. This could be the big contract sticking point.
The 2015 and 2016 base salaries would be guaranteed. This would make Ngata eligible to cut if old age creeps up at 33 in 2017 with a 5 million dead cap hit. It would realistically be a two year deal with the option for Detroit to keep him in 2017.

Cap Hits with Salary and Signing Bonus
4 million (base) +2.5(SB) =6.5 cap hit 2015. Dead money 20 million
6 million (base) +2.5(SB) =8.5 cap hit in 2016. Dead money 13.5 million
8 million (base) +2.5(SB) =10.5 cap hit in 2017. Dead money 5 million
10.5 million (Base) +2.5(SB) =13 cap hit in 2018. Dead money 2.5 million

 

[dubbsco]

How about he plays a real game in a Lions uniform before the management trips over themselves to offer him a contract?

 

[LKP]

How about he plays a real game in a Lions uniform before the management trips over themselves to offer him a contract?

Free agents get signed all the time before playing in a Lions uniform. Tate and Quin come to mind.

 

[Mitchrapp]

How about he plays a real game in a Lions uniform before the management trips over themselves to offer him a contract?

No. just no. We will have no logic in this discussion. NONE.

 

[LKP]

No. just no. We will have no logic in this discussion. NONE.

He is not being logical. Free agents get signed all the time.

Not risking losing him. It being cheaper signing him now. That is logical.

 

[Mitchrapp]

He is not being logical. Free agents get signed all the time.

Not risking losing him. It being cheaper signing him now. That is logical.

Not one that hasn't been healthy yet.. Not one that we don't know when he'll play.

 

[LKP]

Not one that hasn't been healthy yet.. Not one that we don't know when he'll play.

Ngata is very durable. The hamstring should heal, it's not a long term injury and they are being cautious. He's been working more with trainers recently.

Ngata deal should get done. If not, then they'll have to franchise him or offer a good contract before free agency hits.

You have higher cap hits with letting him play out the year, then franchising. And higher 2017 cap hit if you wait to sign him until next offseason.

 

[brewer229]

LKP knows little about contracts and is typically wrong on whatever the lions do. So LKP saying we should sign Ngata before the season means we will not thankfully.

 

[LKP]

LKP knows little about contracts and is typically wrong on whatever the lions do. So LKP saying we should sign Ngata before the season means we will not thankfully.

I know more about contracts than all of you combined. 10 per season is a good deal for Ngata at 31. Less than Atkins, more than Kyle Williams.

 

[brewer229]

I know more about contracts than all of you combined. 10 per season is a good deal for Ngata at 31. Less than Atkins, more than Kyle Williams.

Lol cute.

What I mean is you always error on the side of benefiting the team. Every single contract you lay out is undervalued to the player and gives the team the odds. You only look at it from one side. The side you hope happens.

 

[LKP]

Lol cute.

What I mean is you always error on the side of benefiting the team. Every single contract you lay out is undervalued to the player and gives the team the odds. You only look at it from one side. The side you hope happens.

10 million per benefis both. I always know how contracts can be structured for a win win for both.

It's cute you think making Ngata the 4th highest paid DT at 31 is a lose for him.

 

[LKP]

3 years 30 million. 10 SB.
4 base, 6 base, 8 base then 10.5 base.

Win win.

 

[brewer229]

3 years 30 million. 10 SB.
4 base, 6 base, 8 base then 10.5 base.

Win win.

That's only 28.5 million.


From Ngata perspective play out the year 8.5 million. Then get 4 Years 35 million + 15 million signing bonus (Cap going up in 2016) and get to chose your team.