Race to the bottom

[dubbsco]

Let me ask you guys this question: If the Lions started 6-2 and finished 1-7, would you be calling for Caldwell's head? Cause I have a gut feeling there would be a ton more outrage about him than there is now.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Let me ask you guys this question: If the Lions started 6-2 and finished 1-7, would you be calling for Caldwell's head? Cause I have a gut feeling there would be a ton more outrage about him than there is now.

Doesn't matter to me. I see 1-7 against the better competition.

 

[UMRules06]

Let me ask you guys this question: If the Lions started 6-2 and finished 1-7, would you be calling for Caldwell's head? Cause I have a gut feeling there would be a ton more outrage about him than there is now.

It depends. I am ok if they decide to go elsewhere with the head coach. However those two scenarios can be interpreted very differently.

Starting 6-2 and finishing 1-7 means that you choked/faded down the stretch when you should have been in the playoffs and maybe made some noise (See the 2013 season after which Schwartz got the axe). That's a lot more disappointing than starting off on the wrong foot and getting things turned around.

Also the nature of the losses. Were they close games? Did we get "screwed"? Did Caldwell blow the clock management? Lots of things to factor in.

 

[tomdalton22]

Do the Lions "need" a franchise player right now? They are closer to the playoffs than being in the toilet and having to start over. Nothing is guaranteed as you said, no matter where you select (thank you Charles Rogers).

The fact that the Lions have screwed up their drafts so often is fair enough, but I don't want to be so cynical as to believe they need a top 5 pick every year just to get a player of any substance. And why are you a fan of stockpiling picks if the Lions are just going to botch them anyway?

I am much more positive about this team moving forward than I would be if we had finished 3-13 and gotten a top 5 pick. If that had happened it would have meant we have way more problems than we can fix in one offseason.

If you stockpile picks you have a better chance of one or more hitting.

The Lions beat the Bears in OT, by 4 on the last day of the season and a 2 point win @ GB. Those 3 games could be losses and the exact same lions team might have the #3 pick in the draft (#5 at worst). #3 pick might get you a Joey Bosa.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Close games don't matter for shit. SD had many close games, are they now average instead of shitty in anyone's eyes?

 

[UMRules06]

If you stockpile picks you have a better chance of one or more hitting.

The Lions beat the Bears in OT, by 4 on the last day of the season and a 2 point win @ GB. Those 3 games could be losses and the exact same lions team might have the #3 pick in the draft (#5 at worst). #3 pick might get you a Joey Bosa.

Great. We already have Ziggy Ansah though, so do we need Joey Bosa? Sure he'd be nice, but I'm not going to cry if we don't get him. I know you just are using him as an example, but you can get a quality player at #16.

You pointed out games the Lions won, but could have lost. The reverse is also true. Seahawks, GB at home, and Chargers were all winnable that the Lions either got a bad break, or collapsed. Don't those sorts of things even themselves out?

A top 5 pick means you're going to be down a while. That's why I posted the 3-year history of top 5 picks earlier in the thread. None of those teams are ready for a championship yet.

 

[tomdalton22]

Great. We already have Ziggy Ansah though, so do we need Joey Bosa? Sure he'd be nice, but I'm not going to cry if we don't get him. I know you just are using him as an example, but you can get a quality player at #16.

You pointed out games the Lions won, but could have lost. The reverse is also true. Seahawks, GB at home, and Chargers were all winnable that the Lions either got a bad break, or collapsed. Don't those sorts of things even themselves out?

A top 5 pick means you're going to be down a while. That's why I posted the 3-year history of top 5 picks earlier in the thread. None of those teams are ready for a championship yet.

of course the other games could have gone the other way...and I would still contend that the team is average at best. My only point...once the team can't make the playoffs....so they lose a few close games....the SAME team could have a worse record but a better pick. Picking 11-12 places sooner in EVERY round has to be better...right? If it wasn't better teams wouldn't make trades up to get the guy they want....or trade back to get more picks.

 

[UMRules06]

You will get better players, but it doesn't mean your team will be good anytime soon. I again invite you to look at the list I posted earlier.

 

[tomdalton22]

You will get better players, but it doesn't mean your team will be good anytime soon. I again invite you to look at the list I posted earlier.

of course it doesn't mean your team will be good anytime soon. What we are talking about here is this CURRENT lions team either drafting at #16 or in the top 5. Same exact players that are on the current roster but being able to pick 11+ spots earlier in every round.

 

[Mitchrapp]

We won't be picking 16 every round. All the other 7-9 teams as well as Detroit changes positions throughout each round. Not that it helps much but better than nothing.

 

[UMRules06]

of course it doesn't mean your team will be good anytime soon. What we are talking about here is this CURRENT lions team either drafting at #16 or in the top 5. Same exact players that are on the current roster but being able to pick 11+ spots earlier in every round.

The two are not equal scenarios though. Our perceptions and our opinions on the current roster and coaching staff would have been vastly different if we performed terribly all year. Maybe we end up cutting guys who we might otherwise keep now? Maybe the organization feels they really have to find a new franchise QB? And now they feel better about Stafford. Everything changes.

3-13 means your team has a lot of work to do. In your opinion 3-13 is the same as 7-9. We can agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Mitchrapp]

The two are not equal scenarios though. Our perceptions and our opinions on the current roster and coaching staff would have been vastly different if we performed terribly all year. Maybe we end up cutting guys who we might otherwise keep now? Maybe the organization feels they really have to find a new franchise QB? And now they feel better about Stafford. Everything changes.

3-13 means your team has a lot of work to do. In your opinion 3-13 is the same as 7-9. We can agree to disagree on this one.

1 and 7 equals 1 and 7. It's like getting a B in Algebra but getting a D+ in Algebra 2 with a cheat sheet.

 

[UMRules06]

1 and 7 equals 1 and 7. It's like getting a B in Algebra but getting a D+ in Algebra 2 with a cheat sheet.

I'm not arguing with anything about that. They need to start beating good teams. And I'm not trying to sound like I'm carrying the blue and silver flag down Woodward claiming them as the best team in the NFL. They are far from it.

I've made my opinion known about the topic at hand. I'd rather go 7-9 and pick 16 then go 3-13 and pick top 5. It's fine to have different opinions. I don't care lol

 

[tomdalton22]

The two are not equal scenarios though. Our perceptions and our opinions on the current roster and coaching staff would have been vastly different if we performed terribly all year. Maybe we end up cutting guys who we might otherwise keep now? Maybe the organization feels they really have to find a new franchise QB? And now they feel better about Stafford. Everything changes.

3-13 means your team has a lot of work to do. In your opinion 3-13 is the same as 7-9. We can agree to disagree on this one.

You are right and some of those changes could be good ones.

 

[Mitchrapp]

But feeling better about 7-9 rather than 3-13 after a playoff season? Disappointing. Missed playoff is missed playoff. No playoff wins is no playoff wins.

 

[inkfreq]

2010 Top 5 Picks:

1. Sam Bradford - Never lived up to being the #1 pick
2. Ndamakong Suh - Pro Bowler and among the games best
3. Gerald McCoy - About a hair behind Suh
4. Trent Williams - Has been a very good O-Lineman
5. Eric Berry - Among the best int he game

2011 Top 5 Picks:
1. Cam Newton - Elite QB
2. Von Miller - Absolute Beast
3. Marcell Dareus - Top 5 defensive player
4. A.J. Green - Age may be getting to him early, but an elite WR
5. Patrick Peterson - I still think he's the best CB in the league

2012 Top 5 Picks:
1. Andrew Luck - Elite QB who played badly while hurt
2. Robert Griffin III - Bust with a great rookie year under his belt
3. Trent Richardson - Bust of epic proportions
4. Matt Kalil - Jury is out. Has been great, has been terrible.
5. Justin Blackmon - Probably out of football for good

2013 Top 5 Picks:
1. Eric Fisher - Bust
2. Luke Joeckel - Not quite a bust yet, but as close as you can get without being a bust
3. Dion Jordan - Total Bust
4. Lane Johnson - Jury is out. Hasn't played to the level of a top 5 guy, but the talent is there.
5. Ezekiel Ansah - Pro Bowler coming into his own, soon to be a beast

2014 Top 5 Draft Picks:
1. Jadeveon Clowney- Injuries keep him from being a bust, but hasn't been #1 worthy yet.
2. Greg Robinson - Too early to say bust, but it's on the tip of the tongue
3. Blake Bortles - Mixed results, but mostly bad ones.
4. Sammy Watkins - I expected a LOT more from him. So far, not impressed.
5. Khalil Mack - A man among boys at his best, a man who beats other men at his worst.

I would argue it's too early to discuss the 2015 top 5 picks as yet, but the results if we did weren't overwhelming, even for rookies.

My point? Landing a top 5 pick is not a safe pick at all. In each of those classes there have been ProBowlers taken after the top 5, and in some of those classes, the top 5 is nearly devoid of NFL caliber talent.

The difference between picking #5 and #15 in many years is the millions in cap savings.

 

[UMRules06]

But feeling better about 7-9 rather than 3-13 after a playoff season? Disappointing. Missed playoff is missed playoff. No playoff wins is no playoff wins.

The season as a whole is disappointing. No argument from me or anybody else I should hope.

 

[tomdalton22]

2010 Top 5 Picks:

1. Sam Bradford - Never lived up to being the #1 pick
2. Ndamakong Suh - Pro Bowler and among the games best
3. Gerald McCoy - About a hair behind Suh
4. Trent Williams - Has been a very good O-Lineman
5. Eric Berry - Among the best int he game

2011 Top 5 Picks:
1. Cam Newton - Elite QB
2. Von Miller - Absolute Beast
3. Marcell Dareus - Top 5 defensive player
4. A.J. Green - Age may be getting to him early, but an elite WR
5. Patrick Peterson - I still think he's the best CB in the league

2012 Top 5 Picks:
1. Andrew Luck - Elite QB who played badly while hurt
2. Robert Griffin III - Bust with a great rookie year under his belt
3. Trent Richardson - Bust of epic proportions
4. Matt Kalil - Jury is out. Has been great, has been terrible.
5. Justin Blackmon - Probably out of football for good

2013 Top 5 Picks:
1. Eric Fisher - Bust
2. Luke Joeckel - Not quite a bust yet, but as close as you can get without being a bust
3. Dion Jordan - Total Bust
4. Lane Johnson - Jury is out. Hasn't played to the level of a top 5 guy, but the talent is there.
5. Ezekiel Ansah - Pro Bowler coming into his own, soon to be a beast

2014 Top 5 Draft Picks:
1. Jadeveon Clowney- Injuries keep him from being a bust, but hasn't been #1 worthy yet.
2. Greg Robinson - Too early to say bust, but it's on the tip of the tongue
3. Blake Bortles - Mixed results, but mostly bad ones.
4. Sammy Watkins - I expected a LOT more from him. So far, not impressed.
5. Khalil Mack - A man among boys at his best, a man who beats other men at his worst.

I would argue it's too early to discuss the 2015 top 5 picks as yet, but the results if we did weren't overwhelming, even for rookies.

My point? Landing a top 5 pick is not a safe pick at all. In each of those classes there have been ProBowlers taken after the top 5, and in some of those classes, the top 5 is nearly devoid of NFL caliber talent.

The difference between picking #5 and #15 in many years is the millions in cap savings.

all true. My original premise was that picking in the top 5 you are guaranteed that there will be a "franchise player" to select from (up to the team to make the right choice), or the ability to trade back (acquire more picks) & pick earlier in every round.

Get the #5 pick, trade back to 15 if you want and pick up a future first round pick...or a 2nd and 3rd. Takes care of your cap concerns.

 

[inkfreq]

all true. My original premise was that picking in the top 5 you are guaranteed that there will be a "franchise player" to select from (up to the team to make the right choice), or the ability to trade back (acquire more picks) & pick earlier in every round.

Get the #5 pick, trade back to 15 if you want and pick up a future first round pick...or a 2nd and 3rd. Takes care of your cap concerns.

My point is that when you look back at those drafts, there were plenty of good, even "franchise" players taken in the middle of round 1 too.

Last year,m as an example, the Raiders got Khalil Mack. At 12 the Giants got OBJ, at 13 the Rams got Aaron Donald, at 16 the Cowboys got Zack Martin, and at 17 the Ravens got C.J. Mosley. Those guys have already been selected to the ProBowl.

That doesn't include just all around good players like Ryan Shazier, Mike Evans, Jake Matthews, Anthony Barr, Kyle Fuller, Calvin Pryor, Ha Ha Clinton Dix (can't even say that name without laughing), Jason Verrett, Marcus Smith, and Jimmie Ward who have been excellent for young guys, but haven't been elected to a ProBowl.

In 2013, Ansah was taken #5. He's a ProBowler, but so is Sheldon Richardson taken at 13, Eric Reid at 18, Kyle Long at 20, Tyler Eifert at 21, DeAndre Hopkins at 27, Cordarrelle Paterson at 29, and Travis Frederick at 31. Not including Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, D.J. Hayden, Barkevious Mingo, Kenny Vaccaro, Xavier Rhodes, Datone JOnes, Sylvester Williams, Alec Ogletree, and Justin Pugh who have been very very good, but again, not elected to the ProBowl yet. Or Le'Veon Bell is who was a second rounder.

All of those guys are franchise players, taken well after the top 5.

I would much rather have wins than a better draft position. Wins are what you draft guys to help produce, and sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Like I keep saying, you can't draft Wins, you can only draft players, and those are a gamble.

Give me the wins any day.

 

[cheeno]

Last year,m as an example, the Raiders got Khalil Mack. At 12 the Giants got OBJ, at 13 the Rams got Aaron Donald, at 16 the Cowboys got Zack Martin, and at 17 the Ravens got C.J. Mosley. Those guys have already been selected to the ProBowl.

I'd just as soon never talk about that draft again.