The Official New ][V][ichigan Head Coach Search Thread

[bphillips4gg]

It is impossible for there to be more than 1 school the top 1 consistently and impossible for there to be more than 2 schools the top 2 consistently.

If you look at the top 4 BCS finishers over 2004-2013 (ten years), Bama was in it 5 times, Texas 4, Auburn, Florida, Oregon, Ohio State, & LSU 3, Stanford, TCU, Oklahoma, & USC twice, and 8 other schools were in the top 4 once.

If you want just the top 2, Bama was there 3 times, Texas, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, USC & OSU twice. 1 team, 3 times a decade. That's as consistent as it was for anyone.

That is not at all what we said. What we're implying is that Michigan should be a team that is in the conversation about who will be in the playoffs every single year, the dame way OSU, Bama. Oregon, SC. Texas etc have been. Some of those have fallen off recently, but just because they didn't play in the title game doesn't mean they weren't right there.

Tell me, do you have any doubt that Bama will be in the mix for a playoff spot next year? The year after? How about OSU? Oregon? I'm not saying that those 3 will all make it, but you can be damn sure they're going to be in consideration until the last few weeks of the season.

 

[Gulo Blue]

That is not at all what we said. What we're implying is that Michigan should be a team that is in the conversation about who will be in the playoffs every single year, the dame way OSU, Bama. Oregon, SC. Texas etc have been. Some of those have fallen off recently, but just because they didn't play in the title game doesn't mean they weren't right there.

Tell me, do you have any doubt that Bama will be in the mix for a playoff spot next year? The year after? How about OSU? Oregon? I'm not saying that those 3 will all make it, but you can be damn sure they're going to be in consideration until the last few weeks of the season.

I know, but when I see phrases like "even if you aren't top 1 or 2 consistently"...who is that supposed to apply to? That's what I responded to. It doesn't hurt to tally up some ranking from the past to assign numbers to top-shelf expectations.

Big Ten Champs 1/3 of the time is a reasonable top-shelf expectation. It probably means 2 or 3 top 4 appearances per decade which puts you in the top 7-11 programs.

 

[mhughes0021]

so whats plan D, E, F and G?

Les Miles: Not returning to Michigan


Updated: December 16, 2014, 1:15 PM ET

By David Ching | ESPN.com




Les Miles Not Leaving LSU For Michigan


ESPN college football reporter Chris Low has the latest on LSU coach Les Miles, who refused to be quoted on the record and said he would not change jobs even if Michigan made contact.

Tags: LSU Tigers, NCF




BATON ROUGE, La. -- Les Miles will not be the next coach at Michigan. So says Les Miles.


Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Les Miles sent a message after LSU's practice Monday: A return to Ann Arbor is not going to happen.

After LSU's Monday evening bowl practice, the Tigers' coach addressed persistent rumors that he will return to his alma mater, where he played under Bo Schembechler and spent a decade as an assistant coach.

Miles refused to be quoted on the record in the post-practice chat with reporters, but he sent a clear message: A return to Ann Arbor is not going to happen. He and his agent, George Bass, have not heard from Michigan, Miles said, and he would not change jobs even if Michigan made contact.

Miles also has told LSU athletic officials that he has not been contacted by Michigan and that he has no intention of leaving the Tigers, LSU spokesman Michael Bonnette said.

Miles is nearing the end of his 10th season at LSU, where he has won two SEC titles and one Bowl Championship Series crown. Miles-to-Michigan rumors have emerged in the past -- most notably late in the 2007 season, when he famously addressed reports on the subject prior to the SEC championship game -- but he has remained at LSU each time the Wolverines have had a coaching vacancy.

Since Michigan fired Brady Hoke on Dec. 2, Miles has shot down questions about a return to the Wolverines, but never as emphatically as he did Monday. After unofficially addressing the Michigan job opening, Miles went on to discuss several subjects related to his current job, including injuries, underclassmen who might become early entries in the 2015 NFL draft and the Tigers' upcoming bowl matchup with Notre Dame.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

 

[dubbsco]

He would run to Michigan if he was offered the job (much like one Brady Hoke). It's been pretty well-documented that he would come back if he was given a chance.

 

[dubbsco]

Maybe this will get people excited again:

Tweets Tweets & replies Photos & videos
John U. Bacon @Johnubacon ? 11h 11 hours ago
That said, no one I'm talking to is going on the record, and things could always change. But the amount of insider chatter is unusual.

John U. Bacon @Johnubacon ? 11h 11 hours ago
Yes, I'm hearing a lot of chatter, too - even here in Hawaii - from knowledgeable insiders, indicating odds of Harbaugh to UM going up.

 

[josh200612]

I'm liking this.

 

[hungry]

The Michigan Insider @michiganinsider
Follow
Yesterday I was 60-40 that Harbaugh was coming to A2. After talking to sources, I was told to move that to 90-10! Too big of a jump but ...

 

[hungry]

The Michigan Insider @michiganinsider
Follow
... My optimism is rising. Not willing to jump to 90-10 but definitely getting more optimistic.

 

[Michchamp]

how do these clowns come up with a numerical estimate of the probability?

 

[Gulo Blue]

how do these clowns come up with a numerical estimate of the probability?

If you're going to say something like that, in my opinion, the % should reflect the odds where, if you had to bet, you'd feel equally comfortable on either side of the bet. People probably don't put that much thought into it, but that's how I think of it.

So if they think there's a 90% chance of landing Harbaugh, that's means if they have the option to bet $9 on Harbaugh to win $1 or bet $1 that it won't be Harbaugh to win $9, they'd think those are equally good bets.

I think I'm up to about 20% myself.

 

[bphillips4gg]

how do these clowns come up with a numerical estimate of the probability?

It's science.

I had a good Ron Burgundy pic for this but I can't seem to attach the damn thing on my phone.

 

[TheVictors]

If you're going to say something like that, in my opinion, the % should reflect the odds where, if you had to bet, you'd feel equally comfortable on either side of the bet. People probably don't put that much thought into it, but that's how I think of it.

So if they think there's a 90% chance of landing Harbaugh, that's means if they have the option to bet $9 on Harbaugh to win $1 or bet $1 that it won't be Harbaugh to win $9, they'd think those are equally good bets.

I think I'm up to about 20% myself.

I would look at it like probability ....that given the outcome of the Jim Harbaugh coaching/employment situation, out of ten possible scenarios, that he'd be the head coach at Michigan nine of those ten scenarios.

If people feel that "landing at Michigan is the odds on favorite" it would just mean that someone who "bet" he winds up the next JETS HC would get a substantially better payoff than those who went with the far more "likely" outcome of winding up in Ann Arbor.

 

[RABID]

If you're going to say something like that, in my opinion, the % should reflect the odds where, if you had to bet, you'd feel equally comfortable on either side of the bet. People probably don't put that much thought into it, but that's how I think of it.

So if they think there's a 90% chance of landing Harbaugh, that's means if they have the option to bet $9 on Harbaugh to win $1 or bet $1 that it won't be Harbaugh to win $9, they'd think those are equally good bets.

I think I'm up to about 20% myself.

I am hearing you might bet on 6 for Harbaugh to win $46 million which would include signing bonus.

 

[Jessica]

Right! Lmao

 

[mhughes0021]

ESPN radio reported Rappaport said we offered harbaugh 6 yrs 48 mil.

 

[josh200612]

Yes it's all over the place.

 

[Monster]

ESPN radio reported Rappaport said we offered harbaugh 6 yrs 48 mil.

Well, if he turns that down, it will be obvious he prefers the NFL.

 

[Jessica]

If he turns down that kind of money he's nuts.

Please take it please take it please take it.

 

[dubbsco]

Well, this certainly expedites the process doesn't it???? I don't think we'll have to wait another two weeks to find out.

 

[bphillips4gg]

You would think, but I would say the longer we go without hearing anything the better off we are. I'm still not sure it'll happen, but it's nice to know that they're serious about fixing this train wreck.

He doesn't have any obligation to anyone but himself and his family, but as big an ego as someone with his personality must have, there's no better situation. You could try to argue that if came here and won a national title that he wouldn't surpass Bo in level of adoration amongst the fans, but you would be wrong. But what's the bigger prize in his mind, a Lombardi or a national championship and cementing his name at the top of the list of Michigan greats?