Tigers looking at Mark Buerhle

[tomdalton22]

Mitch[/color]]

Maybe I over spoke when I said they were meaningless. But I believe you need to take more into account than road splits. Road splits by themselves doesn't tell me much.

I don't know what you are trying to say. Road stats say exactly what they are intended to say, which is what are the stats when the park is neutral.

Not really. Road splits just give you stats from a mixture of balparks...not neutral. I think unless a player plays at a park that has significant advantages (like Yankee Stadium for a LH hitter or Boston for a RH) etc. or significant disadvantages I think you should use stats from all games.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Mitch[/color]]

Maybe I over spoke when I said they were meaningless. But I believe you need to take more into account than road splits. Road splits by themselves doesn't tell me much.

I don't know what you are trying to say. Road stats say exactly what they are intended to say, which is what are the stats when the park is neutral.

They say very little. When someone talks about a FA or trade, road splits are always brought up. Why? Because they think the new team will get those numbers, the .738 OPS I brought up before or else whats the point of bringing them up? But that's not even close to being true.

 

[mhughes0021]

Id be fine with using porcello as a trade piece if we got buerhle for a 2B/3B. Im over ricky and his 4 decent innings then one 4 run inning.

Porcello is 22 years old. I for one am not ready to give up on him.

Its not really giving up on him...its just using him to get pieces of need elsewhere. If Buerhle signs here ricky will not start a playoff game over JV, Fister, Scherzer or Buerhle. So whats the point in keeping him when we have so many holes elsewhere.

 

[Mitchrapp]

It was mentioned early but not sure Porcello has much trade value at this point.

 

[tomdalton22]

Porcello is 22 years old. I for one am not ready to give up on him.

Its not really giving up on him...its just using him to get pieces of need elsewhere. If Buerhle signs here ricky will not start a playoff game over JV, Fister, Scherzer or Buerhle. So whats the point in keeping him when we have so many holes elsewhere.

It also depends on what they would have to pay for Buerhle. If it is $12-$13 million a year don't you think that could be used to fill the "many holes"?

 

[Mitchrapp]

You're assuming the Tigers only have 12-13 million available.

 

[jimrice]

I don't know what you are trying to say. Road stats say exactly what they are intended to say, which is what are the stats when the park is neutral.

Not really. Road splits just give you stats from a mixture of balparks...not neutral. I think unless a player plays at a park that has significant advantages (like Yankee Stadium for a LH hitter or Boston for a RH) etc. or significant disadvantages I think you should use stats from all games.

Which is the exact example of comparing A-Ram to Headley. One plays in a tremendous park for hitters and the other plays in the worst.

 

[jimrice]

Mitch[/color]]

I don't know what you are trying to say. Road stats say exactly what they are intended to say, which is what are the stats when the park is neutral.

They say very little. When someone talks about a FA or trade, road splits are always brought up. Why? Because they think the new team will get those numbers, the .738 OPS I brought up before or else whats the point of bringing them up? But that's not even close to being true.

I'm still lost. It's a better indicator than using a guy's home stats. Aramis's numbers in Wrigley would probably not be a very good indicator of what he would do in Comerica. There is no perfect prediction model, but road stats are better than home, in my opinion.

 

[kalinecountry]

http://motorcitybengals.com/2011/11/29/white-sox-slow-motion-fire-sale/#comments
Regarding Buerhle's team.
The whitesox look like they are having a slow motion fire sale.
from mcb-tb

If so it would be worthwhile to see what they want for Matt Thornton.
jmo.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Then you're dismissig why a certain player hits better at home, home cooking, their own bed, wife and kids etc. Sure there will be exceptions with parks being easier or harder to hit..

But to say a road number determines how a player might hit in Comerica is ludricous. Which is what some are doing, otherwise why list a list of 12 players with away numbers. I know I'm not explaining really well but someones bound to get it

 

[tomdalton22]

Mitch[/color]]You're assuming the Tigers only have 12-13 million available.

No. But there is no denying that #3 type starter is not an area of need. That would be a luxury. The needs on this team are 3B, 2B, RP and maybe a corner OF. A #3 starter is not a need. If the tigers are going to fill those holes with anything worth a damn it is going to cost them 5-10 million per position (less for the RP). According to what I have read the Tigers have +/- $83.9 million payroll next year which does NOT include the following players: Scherzer, Porcello & Coke who are arb eliglible, DY, and about 10 other regulars who will all make about $400-500k each. Their payroll was about $106M last year....I don't see them going too far above that this year...probably less.

 

[Mitchrapp]

More pitching is always better. So maybe a Porcello sits during the playoffs, okay so. But deeper helps big time. No Guanrentee we win 95 with our current staff and the rest of the division sucks again.

 

[tomdalton22]

Mitch[/color]]More pitching is always better. So maybe a Porcello sits during the playoffs, okay so. But deeper helps big time. No Guanrentee we win 95 with our current staff and the rest of the division sucks again.

Yes...more pitching is better but it is a luxury when you have other needs that are more important.

 

[Thumb]

Mitch[/color]]More pitching is always better. So maybe a Porcello sits during the playoffs, okay so. But deeper helps big time. No Guanrentee we win 95 with our current staff and the rest of the division sucks again.

Yes...more pitching is better but it is a luxury when you have other needs that are more important.

Pitching has, is, and always will be the #1 priority for any team.

 

[jimrice]

Mitch[/color]]Then you're dismissig why a certain player hits better at home, home cooking, their own bed, wife and kids etc. Sure there will be exceptions with parks being easier or harder to hit..

But to say a road number determines how a player might hit in Comerica is ludricous. Which is what some are doing, otherwise why list a list of 12 players with away numbers. I know I'm not explaining really well but someones bound to get it

Who is saying road stats indicate how a player may hit in Comerica as a Tiger? Do you think someone is arguing that?

I guess if you can figure out some metric that indicates who plays better if they sleep in their own bed compared to other guys sleeping in their own beds, we can discuss that. Otherwise, it's just a nebulous idea that you are using to discount actual hard numbers, so in my mind, it's not really relevant to the debate.

Based on your post, it seems like you don't really understand the idea behind using road stats. It's just measuring guys based on the stats from the same stadiums (provided they are in the same league). It's not perfect, schedules aren't balanced, so a guy may have an advantage if he plays in slightly better parks. It's still better than saying "but he may like his wife's meatloaf on mondays and get 3 hits because he's happy".

 

[Mitchrapp]

Mitch[/color]]Then you're dismissig why a certain player hits better at home, home cooking, their own bed, wife and kids etc. Sure there will be exceptions with parks being easier or harder to hit..

But to say a road number determines how a player might hit in Comerica is ludricous. Which is what some are doing, otherwise why list a list of 12 players with away numbers. I know I'm not explaining really well but someones bound to get it

Who is saying road stats indicate how a player may hit in Comerica as a Tiger? Do you think someone is arguing that?

I guess if you can figure out some metric that indicates who plays better if they sleep in their own bed compared to other guys sleeping in their own beds, we can discuss that. Otherwise, it's just a nebulous idea that you are using to discount actual hard numbers, so in my mind, it's not really relevant to the debate.

Based on your post, it seems like you don't really understand the idea behind using road stats. It's just measuring guys based on the stats from the same stadiums (provided they are in the same league). It's not perfect, schedules aren't balanced, so a guy may have an advantage if he plays in slightly better parks. It's still better than saying "but he may like his wife's meatloaf on mondays and get 3 hits because he's happy".

I assume it because people bring up away stats when talking about a FA or trade? Why if its not meant to say a player isn't worth getting?

 

[tigers99888]

Would be an excellent pickup... Low key, but a good upgrade.. I wish they would go after Danks as well..

 

[Rebbiv]

WOW....


First, all teams play HALF their schedule on the road. So away stats are relevant and indicate, at a minimum, what to expect from a player for half the number of games. It also allows comparisons of players without much biases. Looking at home park stats is very much biased.

Most players, unless in a pitcher's park, achieve better stats at home. How much better is determined by the type of park that is their home park. Generally speaking, a player should see roughly 30-50 points higher in their OPS hitting at home. Players that see 100 points or more (Phillips and A. Ramirez as examples) are greatly influenced by their home park biases. These biases can be across the board, or they could favor a lefty versus righty, or vice versus.


Second, Comerica Park is park neutral, despite what anyone has heard or read. Yes, Comerica reduces HRs for righthanded hitters, but it increases BAVG, so there is some what of a trade off.


Last 3 years Splits (Home versus Away)

Boesch .839 OPS vs .690 OPS (+ 149)
Ordonez .841 OPS vs .694 OPS (+147)
Avila .890 OPS vs .744 OPS (+ 146)
Santiago .761 OPS vs .621 OPS (+ 140)

Inge .727 OPS vs .643 OPS (+ 84)
Jackson .757 OPS vs .683 OPS (+ 74)
Cabrera 1.033 OPS vs .978 OPS (+ 55)

Guillen .720 OPS vs .745 OPS (- 20)
Raburn .779 OPS vs .821 OPS (- 42)
Kelly .637 OPS vs .681 OPS (- 44)
Rhymes .664 OPS vs .747 OPS (- 83)

Tigers (current or recent ex) with split teams over the last 3 years


Laird .654 OPS vs .566 OPS (+ 88)
Polanco .748 OPS vs .673 OPS (+ 75)
Betemit .835 OPS vs .807 OPS (+ 28)
Damon .794 OPS vs .774 OPS (+ 20)
Martinez .854 OPS vs .852 OPS (+ 2)

Young .755 OPS vs .760 OPS (- 5)
Granderson .815 OPS vs .846 OPS (- 31)
Peralta .717 OPS vs .755 OPS (- 38)
Sizemore .684 OPS vs .738 OPS (- 54)
C. Wells .748 OPS vs .851 OPS (- 103)
Thames .710 OPS vs .847 OPS (- 137)

 

[chrisinthed]

If we sign Buerhle, we should still keep Porcello despite him not likely to start if we again reached the playoffs. Slip Rick to #5, and chances are he pitches as well or better, and potentially much better, than Brad Penny did this past year. He drives me crazy at times with his inconsistency, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. For heaven's sakes he's only 22!!!!!

 

[kalinecountry]

The asking price of $65 million for Buehrle is inflated, just to make the point his agent is in control and he'll get more than you think.
rumors

This sounds like he is looking for a 4/5 year deal, 4 with option?