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2015 Cap

I'll have to look up what money they can save tomorrow. Obviously Bush is a big one and I think they can cut him without losing much.

The cap is not as bad as I thought. While cutting CJ is blasphemy, he does become a huge cap savings in 2017 and on... If he does struggle with injuries our age starts to show, he could be an option. One note...His cap hit in 2019 is 18.25 mil, but no dead money, if he's loyal enough I could see him being cut and coming back for cheap. Obviously this is way down the road, but the Lions do have good options here though tough at the same time. Unfortunately they'll have to deal with rookie contracts coming up for key players, but I'm confident they can structure them to fit within an increasing cap.
 
I did some cap analysis for 2015 and 2016 and here are some of the highlights. All information obtained through Spotrac.com.

Here are the position counts for all players currently under contract for 2015 (includes future commitments)
WR: 7
LB: 7
TE: 6
CB: 4
DT: 4
S: 4
RB: 4
DE: 3
OT: 3
OG: 3
OC: 3
P: 1
QB: 1
FB: 0
K: 0
LS: 0

Free Agents

2015 Free Agents
Ndamukong Suh, DT
Nick Fairley, DT
CJ Mosley, DT
Andre Fluellen, DT
George Johnson, DE
Rob Sims, OG
Garrett Reynolds, OT
Corey Hilliard, OT
Ashlee Palmer, LB
Darryl Tapp, LB
Josh Bynes, LB (RFA)
Dominic Raiola, C
Jed Collins, FB
Isa Abdul-Quddus, S
Dan Orlovsky, QB
Kellen More, QB (RFA)
Rashean Mathis, CB
Cassius Vaughn, CB
Don Muhlbach, LS
Matt Prater, K
Kellen Davis, TE
Jeremy Ross, WR (ERFA)

2016 Free Agents
DeAndre Levy, LB
Tahir Whitehead, LB
Travis Lewis, LB
Julian Stanford, LB
Jason Jones, DE
James Ihedigbo, S
Riley Reiff, OT
LaAdrian Waddle, OT
Rodney Austin, OG
Darren Keyton, OC
Ryan Broyles, WR
Corey Fuller, WR
Bill Bentley, CB
Mohammed Seisay, CB
Joseph Fauria, TE
George Winn, RB

2017 Free Agents
Stephen Tulloch, LB
Reggie Bush, RB
Joique Bell, RB
Theo Riddick, RB
Don Carey, S
Sam Martin, P
Caraun Reid, DT
Devin Taylor, DE
Ezekiel Ansah, DE (Team Option)
Cornelius Lucas, OT
Larry Warford, OG
Darius Slay, CB

2018 Free Agents
Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Larry Webster, TE
Eric Ebron, TE
Glover Quin, S
TJ Jones, WR
Nevin Lawson, CB
Travis Swanson, OC
Kyle Van Noy, LB
Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Matthew Stafford, QB

2019 Free Agents
Golden Tate, WR

2020 Free Agents
Calvin Johnson, WR


2015 Cap Status

(With the assumption that Suh does not excercise his player option)
Contracts: $106,139,638
Dead Money: $13,828,229 (Mostly Chris Houston, $3.9MM and Ndamukong Suh, $9.74 MM)
Cap Hit Total: $119,967,867
Projected Cap: $138,600,000
Projected Space: $18,632,133

First up are the uncuttable players (pre-6/1), most of these are obvious but they all either result in a cap loss or negligable cap gain (only for players above $1MM)

2015 Uncuttable
Calvin Johnson, WR
Kyle Van Noy, LB
Golden Tate, WR
Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Eric Ebron, TE
Matthew Stafford, QB
Darius Slay, CB
Glover Quin, S

Next up are the players that provide the highest savings (pre-6/1), this is purely about numbers, I'm not advocating that the Lions cut anyone
Bold = Likely candidates

2015 Highest Savings (pre-6/1)
DeAndre Levy, LB ($3.5 MM)
Stephen Tulloch, LB ($3.2 MM)
Jason Jones, DE ($3.15 MM)
Reggie Bush, RB ($1.72 MM)

James Ihedigbo, S ($1.625 MM)
Joique Bell, RB ($1.5 MM)
Riley Reiff, OT ($1.48 MM)

Next up are the highest savings after June 1st cuts (My knowledge is limited on these cuts, I don't know what limitations exist on individual players) this is based on the plan that 2015 cap hits are incurred and dead money from 2016 and on is accelerated to 2016. I've excluded players that are FAs in 2016, since it doesn't make a difference.
Bold = Likely candidates
Dead Money is included, this is what would count against the 2016 cap

2015 Highest Savings (post-6/1)
Calvin Johnson, WR ($12.5 MM, $12.9 MM Dead)
Stephen Tulloch, LB ($4.5 MM, $1.3 MM Dead)
Glover Quin, S ($4 MM, $3.485 MM Dead)
Reggie Bush, RB ($3.5 MM, $1.78 MM Dead)
Brandon Pettigrew, TE ($2.8 MM, $2 MM Dead)
Golden Tate, WR ($2.75 MM, $4.8 MM Dead)
Joique Bell, RB ($2.5 MM, $1 MM Dead)
Matthew Stafford, QB ($1.5 MM, $11 MM Dead)

2015 Gains post 6/1 vs pre 6/1
Calvin Johnson, WR ($12.92 MM)
Matthew Stafford, QB ($11 MM)
Eric Ebron, TE ($6.44 MM)
Ezekiel Ansah, DE ($5.92 MM)
Golden Tate, WR ($4.8 MM)
Glover Quin, S ($3.485 MM)
Brandon Pettigrew, TE ($2 MM)
Reggie Bush, RB ($1.78 MM)
Kyle Van Noy, LB ($1.385 MM)
Stephen Tulloch ($1.3 MM)
Joique Bell ($1 MM)

All cap scenarios involving Bush, Jones, and Tulloch being cut (note: Jones is a 2016 FA)

Bush and Tulloch cut pre 6/1
2015 Savings: $8.072 MM
2015 Cap Space: $26.7 MM
2016 Dead Money: $0

Bush cut post 6/1, Tulloch pre 6/1
2015 Savings: $9.85 MM
2015 Cap Space: $28.5 MM
2016 Dead Money: $1.78 MM

Tulloch cut post 6/1, Bush pre 6/1
2015 Savings: $9.37 MM
2015 Cap Space: $28 MM
2016 Dead Money: $1.3 MM

Bush and Tulloch cut post 6/1
2015 Savings: $11.15 MM
2015 Cap Space: $29.78 MM
2016 Dead Money: $3.078 MM


Other Options for cuts - Non-guaranteed contracts in 2015
Julian Stanford, LB
Rodney Austin, OG
Corey Fuller, WR
Mohammed Seisay, CB
George Winn, RB
Darren Keyton, OC


The current cap commitments in 2016 is $101 MM, this will go up based on June 1st cuts.
 
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that's a ton of info grandy, thanks for taking the time to compile it.

I'm guessing based on your summations at the bottom that the Lions cut Bush and Tully after 6/1, preferring to open more cap room for 2015 and projecting the 2016 cap will go up again and therefore they can absorb those cuts more easily in 2016 with help of higher cap.
 
We'll see how it plays out, I believe every team is limited to 2 June 1st cuts that they can designate in March. Bush provides the highest gain and Tulloch would cost less next season. I wouldn't be surprised if they wait on Tulloch, I'm curious to see how he comes back from injury. I also think Bush is more expendable than Tulloch.

I also think Jones is gone, don't see any reason to keep him. He had what, one good game? The rest were shit, easy money to free up.
 
I'd cut Tulloch and Jones and restructure Stafford if they are franchising Suh. If you don't franchise Suh, I keep both of those guys. Long term deal for Suh, you might just cut one of them, depending on the sturcture of the deal.

Bush 1.7 million only in savings is enough to keep him around. June 1st is nice but then he has dead money next year (like Chris Houston this year). Of course if they keep him he has some dead money next year too.
 
I think calvin is another suh situation after 2016 if I remember right. Dont think its possible to keep him on his current deal til 2020. Esp if his production declines.
 
Probably mid-20s in room as I'm guessing they cut at least one of Bush, Jones, or Tulloch... But this is before they do anything with Suh. They'll make some small moves too to re-sign positions of need like kicker and long snapper along with a few backups here and there.

Also the cap is still a mystery, it might be higher than projected like last year.

Right now it's probably looking like $10 MM if Suh gets franchised, mid-$20 MM if they let him go, somewhere in between if he re-signs.

$18 MM is about middle of the pack right now

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2015/

7 teams are over the projected cap, New Orleans looks screwed at -$23 MM
 
I think with Suh you have to think about future paydays. Young guys drafted 2-3 years ago will get increases soon..I still don't think you can win effectively season after season with 3 guys making as much as Suh, Johnson and Stafford make..
 
They can do it if they draft well consistently and sign FAs at great value (like Tate, who looks underpaid now).... But I remain skeptical, not all signings will be like Tate and 1st round picks will need to contribute more than Ebron.

Levy will be up for a big contract in 2016, Reiff will likely want more

2017 will be Warford and Slay

2018 looking to be full of tough choices

They can still get it done, but Stafford needs to stop playing below his paygrade, CJ needs to stay healthy, and Suh needs to stay out of trouble...otherwise it's a lot of money for less than desired production.
 
They can do it if they draft well consistently and sign FAs at great value (like Tate, who looks underpaid now).... But I remain skeptical, not all signings will be like Tate and 1st round picks will need to contribute more than Ebron.

Levy will be up for a big contract in 2016, Reiff will likely want more

2017 will be Warford and Slay

2018 looking to be full of tough choices

They can still get it done, but Stafford needs to stop playing below his paygrade, CJ needs to stay healthy, and Suh needs to stay out of trouble...otherwise it's a lot of money for less than desired production.

Ziggy up soon as well..2017? That last paragraph is a tough. CJ getting older, Matt hasn't shown he can be better, and Suh..will he continue to be good with a long contract as he gets older..I don't likey.
 
Also, I don't give a shit if QBR is flawed to some degree...9th in QB $$$ should put up better than 20th in QBR. The stat might be flawed, but I doubt it's that flawed.

I don't want to hear the argument about mediocre QBs keeping their teams in games so the defense can win it....$18 million isn't game manager money. He's paid to win games and beat good teams, we've seen that he can rack up wins against bad teams, but that's not good enough, I want to see more for $18 million.

I'm actually curious, if Aaron Rodgers was on this team instead of Stafford, would there be as much complaining about the "big 3"?
 
Ziggy up soon as well..2017? That last paragraph is a tough. CJ getting older, Matt hasn't shown he can be better, and Suh..will he continue to be good with a long contract as he gets older..I don't likey.

Team option in 2017, he'll likely be here til at least 2018.
 
I wouldn't restructure Stafford. I'm not against the possible savings, I just want to have a realistic out if he fails to improve. The team could realistically move on from him any year after 2015 if they wanted with the current contract. Restructuring likely guarantees more years of his contract.

Also, I would cut Calvin before letting Suh walk. I think Suh is the most valuable of our big three (more important to his side of the ball than the other two individually). While I agree it's not ideal to have so much cap wrapped up in three players, it doesn't really dig into how much each of those players are worth their contracts. Of the three, Stafford is the most overpaid. Suh, even at 15 million, is probably equally paid or a better bargain than Calvin.
 
I'm actually curious, if Aaron Rodgers was on this team instead of Stafford, would there be as much complaining about the "big 3"?

No...because the Lions would be hosting the NFC championship game this weekend.
 
I agree about the quarterback ratings. If it's flawed its flawed for everyone so to speak. In any event the eye test says Matt better improve big time and do it quick. And I wouldn't restructure Matt either..
 
No...because the Lions would be hosting the NFC championship game this weekend.

Green Bay isn't hosting the NFC Championship this weekend WITH Rodgers, so I am not sold on the idea the Lions would be if they had him.
 
Green Bay isn't hosting the NFC Championship this weekend WITH Rodgers, so I am not sold on the idea the Lions would be if they had him.

With the way people say we're so talented then with Rodgers we would have won 14.
 
Green Bay isn't hosting the NFC Championship this weekend WITH Rodgers, so I am not sold on the idea the Lions would be if they had him.

You really don't think replacing Stafford with Rodgers gets Detroit 2 more wins?
 
Green Bay isn't hosting the NFC Championship this weekend WITH Rodgers, so I am not sold on the idea the Lions would be if they had him.

Lions have a superior defense and Rodgers is so much better than Stafford...the Lions would have won 13 games.
 
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