Nelson Cruz

[byco42]

Batting Miggy fourth would diminish his offensive productivity. Other teams would jump for joy.

 

[jdeb]

Simple question who is the #5 hitter in the lineup?

It will probably be Hunter but I would try Castellanos there.

 

[jdeb]

If you believe in computer simulations, then they would tell you that batting order does not matter and that you actually score more runs with your best hitter hitting first (more Plate Appearances over the course of the year).

http://www.pankin.com/markov/btn1191.htm

Just think. If Cleveland employed the Markov model, they may have won the division last year, Tigers miss the playoffs, we don't see Fielder flopping on the ground like a fish, and he is still on the team.

 

[Rebbiv]

Just think. If Cleveland employed the Markov model, they may have won the division last year, Tigers miss the playoffs, we don't see Fielder flopping on the ground like a fish, and he is still on the team.

And that would be a bad thing?

 

[turok]

The Tigers didn't try to resign their FAs Infante and Peralta, and don't seem to care that much about who they obtain or use on their bench. As mediocre as it was last season, it looks like it could be even more punchless next season, with Tui, Santiago and Pena replaced by Lombardozzi, Holaday. and Davis.

Bench defense also appears to be at least slightly worse and not quite as versatile positionally.

So the Tigers do not really have anyone who is worthwhile to PH, but hey...they sure have more grit and speed...right? Too bad that they have to get on base first, unless as a PR.

If no other team wants to sign Cruz, then perhaps he might become more amenable to signing a one year contract, albeit likely for more than he deserves, but perhaps there could be incentives included for reaching certain amounts of innings-games played.

I don't see any Tiger who can be predicted to hit more than 15 homers next season outside of Miggy and maybe Hunter, Jackson, and/or Kinsler with any degree of certainty.

The Tigers appear to have become penny-pinchers for perhaps a myriad of reasons, and they are apparently determined to go into next season with a relatively shallow roster, a starting catcher who is a magnet for errant baseballs and bats, and who may be just one more concussion away from being shelved for much if not the remainder of the season, a suspect BP that has at least a few pitchers who may or may not pan out in or after ST (Coke, Chamberlain, Krol...) a roto whose #4-5 SPs are going to be expected to pitch more deeply into games as well as the season, one of whom (Smyly) will be in his first full season as a starter, two aging stars in VMart and Hunter who are on the final seasons of their respective contracts.They also will have a SS w/o an experienced backup, a rookie who will be playing the hot corner, and a possible platoon in LF of Dirks/Davis. Last but not least, they will have a new skipper in Ausmus and his staff.

The Tigers will need to have a lot of things go right to contend throughout next season, and quite obviously they cannot afford to have many players that might become injured and spend sig-time on the DL, especially ~the same time.

 

[tomdalton22]

The Tigers didn't try to resign their FAs Infante and Peralta, and don't seem to care that much about who they obtain or use on their bench. As mediocre as it was last season, it looks like it could be even more punchless next season, with Tui, Santiago and Pena replaced by Lombardozzi, Holaday. and Davis.

Bench defense also appears to be at least slightly worse and not quite as versatile positionally.

So the Tigers do not really have anyone who is worthwhile to PH, but hey...they sure have more grit and speed...right? Too bad that they have to get on base first, unless as a PR.

If no other team wants to sign Cruz, then perhaps he might become more amenable to signing a one year contract, albeit likely for more than he deserves, but perhaps there could be incentives included for reaching certain amounts of innings-games played.

I don't see any Tiger who can be predicted to hit more than 15 homers next season outside of Miggy and maybe Hunter, Jackson, and/or Kinsler with any degree of certainty.

The Tigers appear to have become penny-pinchers for perhaps a myriad of reasons, and they are apparently determined to go into next season with a relatively shallow roster, a starting catcher who is a magnet for errant baseballs and bats, and who may be just one more concussion away from being shelved for much if not the remainder of the season, a suspect BP that has at least a few pitchers who may or may not pan out in or after ST (Coke, Chamberlain, Krol...) a roto whose #4-5 SPs are going to be expected to pitch more deeply into games as well as the season, one of whom (Smyly) will be in his first full season as a starter, two aging stars in VMart and Hunter who are on the final seasons of their respective contracts.They also will have a SS w/o an experienced backup, a rookie who will be playing the hot corner, and a possible platoon in LF of Dirks/Davis. Last but not least, they will have a new skipper in Ausmus and his staff.

The Tigers will need to have a lot of things go right to contend throughout next season, and quite obviously they cannot afford to have many players that might become injured and spend sig-time on the DL, especially ~the same time.

I think any of the following could hit 15+ HRs next year but most likely only 1 or 2 of them

Hunter
Nick C
Avila
Hunter
Jackson
Kinsler

 

[Thumb]

Batting Miggy fourth would diminish his offensive productivity. Other teams would jump for joy.

Says who? Explain to me how he would be less productive hitting cleanup.

 

[Rebbiv]

I think any of the following could hit 15+ HRs next year but most likely only 1 or 2 of them

Hunter
Nick C
Avila
Hunter
Jackson
Kinsler

In 2013, the average AL hitter hit a Home Run once every 37 Plate Appearances. 15 HR x 37 PA = 555 Plate Appearances. More Plate Appearances = more home runs, even if it is at the average rate.

Last 3 years Away HR Rate (Amount if given 650 PA)

Cabrera 18.0 PA/HR (36)

Fielder 28.0 PA/HR (23)

Kinsler 35.6 PA/HR (18)

Hunter 36.5 PA/HR (18)

AL Average 37.0 PA/HR (18)


Jackson 41.0 PA/HR (16)

D. Kelly 41.5 PA/HR (16)

Peralta 43.1 PA/HR (15)

V. Martinez 45.0 PA/HR (14)

Avila 47.5 PA/HR (14)

B. Pena 50.9 PA/HR (13)

Castellanos 54.2 PA/HR (12)

Dirks 56.2 PA/HR (12)

Infante 57.8 PA/HR (11)

Iglesias 85.3 PA/HR (8)

R. Davis 99.0 PA/HR (7)

Holaday 128.3 PA/HR (5)

Santiago 139.0 PA/HR (5)

Lombardozzi 203.0 PA/HR (3)

BOLD is new to since last AS break

Roughly 10-12 HR departed and we got speed in return.


2013 Team Rankings

1. OAK 30.6 PA/HR

2. SEA 31.3 PA/HR

3. BAL 32.5 PA/HR

4. TOR 34.4 PA/HR

5. BOS 34.7 PA/HR

6. TEX 34.8 PA/HR

7. LAA 36.7 PA/HR

8. DET 37.4 PA/HR

9. TBR 37.8 PA/HR

10. CLE 37.8 PA/HR

11. MIN 38.5 PA/HR

12. NYY 44.9 PA/HR

13. HOU 45.3 PA/HR

14. CHW 46.4 PA/HR

15. KCR 54.9 PA/HR


We now go to one of the worst teams in the league for power, and most likely OBP aside from Cabrera. Remove Cabrera, and 2013 we would be right at about 45.0 HR/PA. 2014 just means we will be that much more worse.

 

[byco42]

Says who? Explain to me how he would be less productive hitting cleanup.

Maybe Cabrera's an exception, looking at his splits. But he'd see fewer PAs batting 4th, which is the reason why not to do it.

 

[Rebbiv]

Maybe Cabrera's an exception, looking at his splits. But he'd see fewer PAs batting 4th, which is the reason why not to do it.

Cabrera Last 3 years:

#3 .339 BAVG .417 OBP .621 SLG 1.038 OPS

#4 .342 BAVG .446 OBP .582 SLG 1.028 OPS

2010

#4 .328 BAVG .420 OBP .622 SLG 1.042 OPS

Basically, his numbers will be the same no matter where he bats.

 

[lonesometiger]

Cruz last 3 seasons. 80 Homeruns, Arlington, 50 in 732 AB's. 30 away in 741 AB's. That's a BIG difference. And how many in Comerica? ONE in 54 AB's. Lets see that would work to be about 13.5 HR's in 729 AB's. Yea Cruz would be a real power threat in Comerica.

And then there's the batting average. .279 in Arlington. .247 away.

WOW I' not sure he would hit 15 Homeruns with the Tigers!
I've got to vote no.

 

[Thumb]

Maybe Cabrera's an exception, looking at his splits. But he'd see fewer PAs batting 4th, which is the reason why not to do it.

What 10 to 15 fewer PA's a year? Big deal. Him hitting 4th probably ups his RBI totals, which would easily offset a handful of PA's.

I'm not going to get into this whole thing again, it's been done here like 10 times since we moved from ESPN, but the #4 has been shown to be the most important spot in the lineup. Now consider Cabrera is the only hitter we have capable of holding that spot (needs excellent power, high contact rate)

 

[byco42]

What 10 to 15 fewer PA's a year? Big deal. Him hitting 4th probably ups his RBI totals, which would easily offset a handful of PA's.

I'm not going to get into this whole thing again, it's been done here like 10 times since we moved from ESPN, but the #4 has been shown to be the most important spot in the lineup. Now consider Cabrera is the only hitter we have capable of holding that spot (needs excellent power, high contact rate)

Why deny your best hitter in team history any plate appearances if the productivity is the same? Other pretty good hitters batted third the majority of their careers: Ruth, Cobb, Bonds, Mantle, Mays and Williams for starters.

 

[hellifino]

moving Beast to 4th, not only limits his plate appearances, But Victors as well.

 

[spockmaster]

Why deny your best hitter in team history any plate appearances if the productivity is the same? Other pretty good hitters batted third the majority of their careers: Ruth, Cobb, Bonds, Mantle, Mays and Williams for starters.

because most (if not all) of those extra PAs will be with none on, 2 out in the first, whereas the 4th & 5th spots generally have more PAs with runners on vs the 3rd hole.

anyways, as long as we're kinda lineup-sterbating, ill throw mine out there:

vs RHP:
Kinsler 2B
Dirks LF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 1B/DH
VMart DH/1B
AJax CF
Castellanos 3B
Avila C
Iglesias SS

if Avila actually has a good year this year, I'd slot him 3rd, move Hunter to 6th, and move AJax and Nick C down a spot each.

vs LHP:
Davis LF
Kinsler 2B
Hunter RF
Cabrera 1B/DH
VMart DH/1B
AJax CF
Casteallanos 3B
Avila C
Iglesias SS


I would also not be terribly upset if VMart hit 3rd instead of 5th. i also wont be that upset if Ausmus continues to hit Miggy 3rd, because while the data shows that 4th is more important and id prefer him to hit 4th, the actual difference in run production even over the course of a season between the 2 spots isnt significant enough for it to be a real problem.

 

[Thumb]

Why deny your best hitter in team history any plate appearances if the productivity is the same? Other pretty good hitters batted third the majority of their careers: Ruth, Cobb, Bonds, Mantle, Mays and Williams for starters.

Then the obvious question to that logic is why isn't he leading off? Why deny him those PA's as well?

 

[Thumb]

I would also not be terribly upset if VMart hit 3rd instead of 5th. i also wont be that upset if Ausmus continues to hit Miggy 3rd, because while the data shows that 4th is more important and id prefer him to hit 4th, the actual difference in run production even over the course of a season between the 2 spots isnt significant enough for it to be a real problem.

I won't be either. My real worry will be how will the 4 spot produce if someone besides Miguel is in it. I'd prefer he hit 4th, especially if we can stack the top 3 spots with guys with decent OBP, but it's not the end of the world if he hits 3rd.

I also have to admit I'm surprised nobody tried using the argument that Cabrera's 2 MVP's came with him hitting 3rd, I actually expected a couple specific posters to bring that up, maybe I should be less cynical. :hmm:

 

[byco42]

Then the obvious question to that logic is why isn't he leading off? Why deny him those PA's as well?

There's a school of thought that claims a lineup should be ordered by OBP, highest to lowest. Some weighty sabermatricians would actually advocate that Cabrera lead off. I would not object to that, since a lead-off hitter only leads off a game once. The drawback is that he's following low OBP players as a lead-off hitter, so it also makes sense to keep him third. Or even second. That avoids the no-on-2-out situation, which was actually not the #1-ranked situation in his PAs last season.

The truth is that based on extensive computer simulations, the difference in a team's run production over the course of a 162-game season is marginal when ranking the best lineup of nine from best to the worst.

 

[spockmaster]

I'd hit Miggy 2nd, but i dont think it'd ever actually happen lol

 

[Sbee]

the lineup should be constructed to get Miggy up with men on base, that's just my opinion but more common sense. i'd say put your two highest OBP guys up before him, if two guys are very close go with the one with more speed