kmd47
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The negative outlook plague that has taken over this board is making me sick....
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Petti
- Thread starter ruff
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jdeb
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continues to improve? How about start to improve!
His catch % increased, drop % decreaed and he only had one fumble.
His drop rate % fell.
8.8% in 2012 to 4.8% in 2013. His targets were slightly less than half, but his drops went from 9 to 3. I would have bet the farm that it was higher than that.
FWIW, Aaron Hernandez had a 10.8% drop rate in 2012. I hope he's better at holding onto soap than footballs...
FWIW, Aaron Hernandez had a 10.8% drop rate in 2012. I hope he's better at holding onto soap than footballs...
jdeb
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this
is statistically inaccurate.
tomdalton22
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His "Duck" rates went way up though!
mhughes0021
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He fumbled Week 1 and never again. Your perception of his drops and fumbles is an exagerration.
tomdalton22
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So he doesn't drop the ball and rarely fumbles. I wonder why Stafford didn't look his way more often?
Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, but also Pettigrew missed the last 2 games.
grandy
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Decided to do some digging around in targets, offensive balance, and snap counts for the past three seasons
2011
2011 Targets
- 666 Targets
- 9 Players with 10+ Targets (637, 95.6%)
- 3 RBs accounted for 104 targets (15.6%)
- 3 WRs accounted for 352 targets (52.9%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 181 targets (27.2%)
2011 Run/Pass
- 1022 Offensive Attempts
- 666 Passing Attempts (65.2%)
- 356 Rushing Attempts (34.8%)
2011 Pettigrew
- ??? Snaps (can't find them anywhere)
- 126 Targets (18.9% of total targets)
- 83 Receptions (65.9% catch rate)
- 2 Drops* (Data for 2011 from Sportingcharts seems sketchy across the league)
2012
2012 Targets
- 740 Targets
- 12 Players with 10+ Targets (710, 95.9%)
- 3 RBs accounted for 132 targets (17.8%)
- 6 WRs accounted for 371 targets (50.1%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 207 targets (28%)
2012 Run/Pass
- 1131 Offensive Attempts
- 740 Passing Attempts (65.4%)
- 391 Rushing Attempts (34.6%)
2012 Pettigrew
- 769 Snaps
- 100 Targets (13.5% of total targets)
- 59 Receptions (59% catch rate)
- 9 Drops (9% drop rate)
2013
2013 Targets
- 634 Targets
- 12 Players with 10+ Targets (609, 96.1%)
- 2 RBs accounted for 148 targets (23.3%)
- 7 WRs accounted for 355 targets (56%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 106 targets (16.7%)
2013 Run/Pass
- 1079 Offensive Attempts
- 634 Passing Attempts (58.8%)
- 445 Rushing Attempts (41.2%)
2013 Pettigrew
- 901 Snaps
- 64 Targets (10.1% of total targets)
- 41 Receptions (64.1% catch rate)
- 3 Drops (4.7% drop rate)
Based on all this, it looks to me like the shift away from Pettigrew was due more to having two viable pass-catching RBs and a more balanced offense than anything else.
Sources
2011 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2011
2012 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2012
2013 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2013
Pettigrew Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12549/brandon-pettigrew
Drop Stats: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/
2011 Snap counts: ???
2012 Snap counts: http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2013/01/detroit_lions_offensive_and_de.html
2013 Snap counts: http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2014/01/notes_and_observations_from_de.html
2011
2011 Targets
- 666 Targets
- 9 Players with 10+ Targets (637, 95.6%)
- 3 RBs accounted for 104 targets (15.6%)
- 3 WRs accounted for 352 targets (52.9%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 181 targets (27.2%)
2011 Run/Pass
- 1022 Offensive Attempts
- 666 Passing Attempts (65.2%)
- 356 Rushing Attempts (34.8%)
2011 Pettigrew
- ??? Snaps (can't find them anywhere)
- 126 Targets (18.9% of total targets)
- 83 Receptions (65.9% catch rate)
- 2 Drops* (Data for 2011 from Sportingcharts seems sketchy across the league)
2012
2012 Targets
- 740 Targets
- 12 Players with 10+ Targets (710, 95.9%)
- 3 RBs accounted for 132 targets (17.8%)
- 6 WRs accounted for 371 targets (50.1%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 207 targets (28%)
2012 Run/Pass
- 1131 Offensive Attempts
- 740 Passing Attempts (65.4%)
- 391 Rushing Attempts (34.6%)
2012 Pettigrew
- 769 Snaps
- 100 Targets (13.5% of total targets)
- 59 Receptions (59% catch rate)
- 9 Drops (9% drop rate)
2013
2013 Targets
- 634 Targets
- 12 Players with 10+ Targets (609, 96.1%)
- 2 RBs accounted for 148 targets (23.3%)
- 7 WRs accounted for 355 targets (56%)
- 3 TEs accounted for 106 targets (16.7%)
2013 Run/Pass
- 1079 Offensive Attempts
- 634 Passing Attempts (58.8%)
- 445 Rushing Attempts (41.2%)
2013 Pettigrew
- 901 Snaps
- 64 Targets (10.1% of total targets)
- 41 Receptions (64.1% catch rate)
- 3 Drops (4.7% drop rate)
Based on all this, it looks to me like the shift away from Pettigrew was due more to having two viable pass-catching RBs and a more balanced offense than anything else.
Sources
2011 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2011
2012 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2012
2013 Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/det/year/2013
Pettigrew Stats: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12549/brandon-pettigrew
Drop Stats: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/
2011 Snap counts: ???
2012 Snap counts: http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2013/01/detroit_lions_offensive_and_de.html
2013 Snap counts: http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2014/01/notes_and_observations_from_de.html
inkfreq
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I think I was the first person in this thread to say I didn't like the idea of re-signing Droptimus Prime. But after seeing the stats LKP and Grandy have posted, I might also be the first to say, maybe I am wrong too.
It's pretty clear his targets have gone down, but his drop PERCENTAGES have gone down too. Three drops last year is a very acceptable rate. Half the targets, one third the drops... that's improvement.
Typically when a guy gets fewer targets, he gets rustier, and the percentage goes up, not down.
He was obviously a bigger part of the package in his earlier seasons, because we had so few weapons. As the weapons expanded (Bell, Bush, Fauria, Durham) his targets went down, but his numbers got better. There is just no arguing the numbers, numbers don't lie.
Is he still a "catch and fall guy"? Well, at the very least he doesn't seem to ever extend plays beyond the catch. Is he a "great blocker"? Haven't see anything to support that argument yet, and in my eyes, if he throws a block, the ref throws a flag.
But if I was completely wrong on his drops, I could be wrong on the rest. Maybe I am just biased against the guy, because as a fan of the Lions, he seem to have a knack for hurting them as the worst times a guy can make a mistake.
Maybe the mistakes he makes are just under the microscope in my eyes. Not sure now.
It's pretty clear his targets have gone down, but his drop PERCENTAGES have gone down too. Three drops last year is a very acceptable rate. Half the targets, one third the drops... that's improvement.
Typically when a guy gets fewer targets, he gets rustier, and the percentage goes up, not down.
He was obviously a bigger part of the package in his earlier seasons, because we had so few weapons. As the weapons expanded (Bell, Bush, Fauria, Durham) his targets went down, but his numbers got better. There is just no arguing the numbers, numbers don't lie.
Is he still a "catch and fall guy"? Well, at the very least he doesn't seem to ever extend plays beyond the catch. Is he a "great blocker"? Haven't see anything to support that argument yet, and in my eyes, if he throws a block, the ref throws a flag.
But if I was completely wrong on his drops, I could be wrong on the rest. Maybe I am just biased against the guy, because as a fan of the Lions, he seem to have a knack for hurting them as the worst times a guy can make a mistake.
Maybe the mistakes he makes are just under the microscope in my eyes. Not sure now.
grandy
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I still don't fully trust drop statistics. Is a "catchable ball" clearly defined? There's probably a ton of gray area when it comes to this term. How bad does a throw have to be before it's considered an incomplete and not a drop?
Didn't you pick and choose the Mayhew comments and use them out of context?
Pot-Kettle.
tonyballs
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Exactly. Doesn't work that way in his world though, bro.
mhughes0021
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Didn't mayhew say he thought an extension would be done prior to the new nfl year? Didn't mayhew say that if he didn't extend wed still be fine?
He didn't extend and were not "fine"....then he took what little money we had and spent it on tate and Pettigrew. Awesome....
So tell me where mayhew said anything that resembles real life.
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