Suh Negotiations

[LKP]

Chance Warmack was the 10th pick in last year's draft. He signed a 4 year $12M contract. Rotate Donald in next year and replace Suh in 2015

Replace Suh in 2015. Big shoes to fill. Donald can replace Fairley I agree with that. Donald is the hustle productive guy. Opposite of talented, non hustle guy in Fairley. But Donald is still far from a sure thing given college Oline vs NFL Olines. Fairley is inconsistent but he's still productive. But Fairley is going to want to get paid even though probably underserving.

 

[mhughes0021]

I don't get why you would think Donald would be in play hughes if you don't think Suh makes a big impact? Wouldn't you want the CB or stud WR at 10. Though it seems a stud WR won't be there.

Though I'm sure Mayhew thinks DTs make an impact and that Donald could be BPA so I get why Donald could be a Mayhew pick at 10.

And I find it funny that you would consider DT a need since it's a future need (not 2014). This was the EXACT same scenario with Broyles in 2012 (he was a need but a future need with Burlesons age and cap number). Pick 54(late 2nd) wasn't a reach for Broyles either. And that was late 2nd round, you are talking top ten first round now for future needs (2015 DT).

Donald would get snaps this year if he was picked at 10....our dline depth is crap. Broyles was never going to see the field his rookie year. He was a slot WR coming off injury with 3 guys infront of him. You also have to look at whats left on the board this year.....WR or CB would be good options if you had value there. Gilbert pick I like ONLY cause we have crap at the position now. Evans I hate with a passion and think he will be nothing in this league. Those typically aren't the 2 situations you want when youre picking a top 10 player. IFFFFFF (its a big if) Fairley isn't in the long term plans then Donald fits need and value.

 

[mhughes0021]

Replace Suh in 2015. Big shoes to fill. Donald can replace Fairley I agree with that. Donald is the hustle productive guy. Opposite of talented, non hustle guy in Fairley. But Donald is still far from a sure thing given college Oline vs NFL Olines. Fairley is inconsistent but he's still productive. But Fairley is going to want to get paid even though probably underserving.

If he going to want money then why didn't we pick up the option. I haven't looked it up....was he going to make THAT much?

 

[wheels002]

More and more I am leaning toward taking the cap hit and trading Suh now. We dont know what his contract demands are but if they are over the going rate for a DT which is 12 mil a year then he may not be worth it. The Lions need team leaders now more than ever and Suh isnt very much a team guy. He is very selfish and a me first player. My guess is he will want 15 mil a year +. I do love watching him play but we have to draw a line somewhere. I just am tired of the circus that seems to follow him. The question is if we did trade him what would you guys say is the lowest we could accept?

 

[tsmith7559]

If he going to want money then why didn't we pick up the option. I haven't looked it up....was he going to make THAT much?

a little over $5 for fairley

 

[lgolfer]

this I can agree with. Its frustrating trying to argue with someone telling you suh is awesome, dline is awesome, secondary is awesome....and then trying to justify Suhs numbers/impact. Suhs impact makes more sense once you can admit to yourself that the rest of the pieces around him aren't any good....which is something LKP and tony cant do.

Now take a look at your list....and tell me how weve upgraded:
Jones comes back and hes never put up any number in his entire career.

Fairley has always been inconsistent and now with his option not being picked up can
either pack it in or it could light a fire.

Tapp for Young is a wash for me....maybe a slight downgrade....but hes familiar with washburn atleast.

The hope is Taylor and Ansah progress....but that's one of those futuristic kool aid thingies we see from LKP all the time that don't always pan out the way we hope they do.

Will Levy match his production from last year? If LKP is allowed to use the past for everyone else...then I can say in the past levy sucked....so we would have to be pretty lucky to get the same production from him.

Tully is solid...always has been...hopefully he doesn't lose a step.

Secondary still blows.

So in closing....we can pay Suh 20 mil for all I care...but his "impact" will still be negligible (did I just make up a word...its something like that) if the pieces around him don't improve via draft....cause they didn't improve so far through the off season. Then youre counting on rookies to pick up the slack....always a good thing, right?

I think this a good assessment. And I like how the last couple pages have actually been good arguments and opinions about our defensive situation from Hughes, LKP, and everyone else who posted. I can't remember the last time that there weren't super extreme opinions for multiple pages.

 

[tomdalton22]

More and more I am leaning toward taking the cap hit and trading Suh now. We dont know what his contract demands are but if they are over the going rate for a DT which is 12 mil a year then he may not be worth it. The Lions need team leaders now more than ever and Suh isnt very much a team guy. He is very selfish and a me first player. My guess is he will want 15 mil a year +. I do love watching him play but we have to draw a line somewhere. I just am tired of the circus that seems to follow him. The question is if we did trade him what would you guys say is the lowest we could accept?

I was at dinner and on PTI they were talking about the odds that the Lions trade Suh. It was on a TV in the background so I couldn't hear what they were saying. If they could get a 2nd round pick for him I think I would do it.

 

[mhughes0021]

a little over $5 for fairley

5 mil isn't too much for him...odd they didn't pick it up at that rate. youd have to assume they don't like several things about him.

 

[tonyballs]

Suh WPA (positive win probability added)

2010: 1.37
2011: 0.96
2012: 1.26
2013: 1.61

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/defenderstats.php?year=2013&pos=DT&season=reg

2013 was not his best year by simple counting stats, but it was his best year in terms of impact.

I've always believed that rating DTs by sacks/tackles/etc. was stupid, their contributions go far beyond the numbers.

THIS.

Thank you, Grandy.

 

[tonyballs]

Plenty of DTs had "impactful" statistical years....Detroit just has the one that did a ton of invisible things that apparently was great but no one benefited from it except apparently adding 2 more picks to levy's int total lmao.

When his hits and hurries lead to poor pass defense.....I could argue that is the opposite of being impactful.

No, you can't argue it. Suh's numbers were down, yes, but he's still recognized as one of the best in the game by his peers. You're the ONLY one hung up on stats with this guy. His fn teammates need to step up and start making plays....he can't do it by himself. Why are you so fn stubborn? lol.

 

[tonyballs]

Now my D-line question

What if Fairley sucks next season and Suh declines his option? Should they plan for that possibility now or just hope for the best?

Real easy? lol Get Suh in a room and you look him straight in the face and ask him if he wants to be here. If he does, you fn pay him. If he doesn't, you try and trade him NOW. Hate to say it but it's the only way. Acquire picks, move up or down in the draft....anything and everything to get the job done.
Then you get Fairley in the same room and tell him to prove his worth and go out there and kill it. If Fairley has a monster year then you may have problems and you have to pay him lol. Or you somehow trade his ass instead of Suh and see what you could get. Not sure what you could get for him because he has a bad reputation. The Lions have some serious thinking to do...

 

[tonyballs]

I was at dinner and on PTI they were talking about the odds that the Lions trade Suh. It was on a TV in the background so I couldn't hear what they were saying. If they could get a 2nd round pick for him I think I would do it.

The phone should be immediately hung up if anyone even offers anything less than a 1st rounder. He's still young, healthy, productive and in the prime of his career. I would be shocked and angry if he was had for a 2nd rounder...

 

[tonyballs]

5 mil isn't too much for him...odd they didn't pick it up at that rate. youd have to assume they don't like several things about him.

I think they're using his ass. You remember what they did to Avril. Show me the production and we'll show you the money. I honestly don't think Fairley is in the plans for 2015.

 

[tomdalton22]

The phone should be immediately hung up if anyone even offers anything less than a 1st rounder. He's still young, healthy, productive and in the prime of his career. I would be shocked and angry if he was had for a 2nd rounder...

I should have been more specific...early second or maybe a late first. If it were a mid to late second they would have to throw in more. I just don't think any other team would be willing to give up too much given his contract situation & future contract.

 

[mhughes0021]

I should have been more specific...early second or maybe a late first. If it were a mid to late second they would have to throw in more. I just don't think any other team would be willing to give up too much given his contract situation & future contract.

I know it was just rumored by us on here....but that Suh to STL deal makes a lot of sense for everyone if we find ourselves needing to trade Suh. Suh on that line would be ridiculous. STL needs to do something to compete with the defenses of SEA and SF. This would make their dline elite while also having options at 10 and 13 to make their secondary above average. 10 + suh for 2 is tempting to say the least. We get Watkins without losing half our draft. We dump a contract we would have a hard time affording with someone seemingly making himself difficult to resign. DT becomes an immediate need for us in rds 2 or 3 in the draft.

 

[ruff]

I know it was just rumored by us on here....but that Suh to STL deal makes a lot of sense for everyone if we find ourselves needing to trade Suh. Suh on that line would be ridiculous. STL needs to do something to compete with the defenses of SEA and SF. This would make their dline elite while also having options at 10 and 13 to make their secondary above average. 10 + suh for 2 is tempting to say the least. We get Watkins without losing half our draft. We dump a contract we would have a hard time affording with someone seemingly making himself difficult to resign. DT becomes an immediate need for us in rds 2 or 3 in the draft.

wouldn't be too bad except I would do 10 + Suh for 2 and 44. they get a dominate DT and possibly a exceptional OT and a WR/TE/secondary at 10 and 13.

 

[lgolfer]

I know it was just rumored by us on here....but that Suh to STL deal makes a lot of sense for everyone if we find ourselves needing to trade Suh. Suh on that line would be ridiculous. STL needs to do something to compete with the defenses of SEA and SF. This would make their dline elite while also having options at 10 and 13 to make their secondary above average. 10 + suh for 2 is tempting to say the least. We get Watkins without losing half our draft. We dump a contract we would have a hard time affording with someone seemingly making himself difficult to resign. DT becomes an immediate need for us in rds 2 or 3 in the draft.

Wasn't the idea on here that we would trade Suh for the #2 pick (I don't know if that's doable)? Because if we give up #10 and Suh for the #2 pick then our D-line will likely be awful unless Fairley has an amazing year.
A bad D-line + good linebacking corp + average/bad secondary = a worse defense than we had last year.

Plus, as much as I would love Watkins, if we trade up to 2 I'd rather take Clowney if he's available.

 

[lgolfer]

wouldn't be too bad except I would do 10 + Suh for 2 and 44. they get a dominate DT and possibly a exceptional OT and a WR/TE/secondary at 10 and 13.

I think this would be a more even trade.

 

[mhughes0021]

Wasn't the idea on here that we would trade Suh for the #2 pick (I don't know if that's doable)? Because if we give up #10 and Suh for the #2 pick then our D-line will likely be awful unless Fairley has an amazing year.
A bad D-line + good linebacking corp + average/bad secondary = a worse defense than we had last year.

Plus, as much as I would love Watkins, if we trade up to 2 I'd rather take Clowney if he's available.

no way suhs value is the #2 pick in the draft seeing as hes a 1 year rental. Since that's the case I don't really seeing them throwing in #44 either...but we can dream

 

[lgolfer]

no way suhs value is the #2 pick in the draft seeing as hes a 1 year rental. Since that's the case I don't really seeing them throwing in #44 either...but we can dream

So do you think Suh + 10 for Watkins is a good deal for the Lions? As GM, would you do it? Because I think our defense would be much worse and have trouble stopping anything if that trade happened. Our offense would theoretically be amazing, but I don't know if that'd be worth it.