Computers still love Michigan

[Spartanmack]

When did I say anything about Bob?

go back and read the thread. My comment was about non-michigan fans seeing the game the way bob did, you replied to that post, you even quoted my post.


edit: either way, if you agree with bob that the game turned on either one of those plays going the other way and you were just unlucky, you're delusional.

 

[Spartanmack]

I did say something about luck. And when an ND fan says we should have had 2 picks, that means they were lucky we didn't.

no it doesn't - the nd fan specifically said you should have had 2 picks but didn't because ND receivers made great plays. that's not the same thing as saying they were lucky. lucky would have been something like uofm caught the ball but the defender barely missed getting a foot down in bounds or like what happened w/ Lewerke on the last drive against psu where the throw was so bad, only the psu defender could have caught, (in that case, definitely should have) but didn't.

 

[hungry]

this is what you said...



so it's technically true but highly misleading - they also had the ball down 14 in the final 5 minutes, didn't get it to a 7 point game until just over 2 minutes and didn't get the ball w/in 7 until the 1:40 mark. That statement demonstrates a lack of understanding what the actual situation was. There's a big difference between being down a score with 5 minutes, 4.5 minutes, 4 minutes, even 3 minutes than 1:40.

And none of that changes the fact that you got outplayed badly.

I did not get outplayed. I didn't even play.

 

[Gulo Blue]

go back and read the thread. My comment was about non-michigan fans seeing the game the way bob did, you replied to that post, you even quoted my post.

Sure. But disagreeing with you doesn't sign me up for agreeing with everything Bob said.


Main point is 3 drives, all assisted with penalties, and some unlikely catches and just about no offense outside of those 3 drives, is not a clownstomping.


It's misleading to call it a clownstomping. If you told people it was a clownstomping and then asked them to guess how many points ND won by, nobody would be close to right. Because you use misleading language. It's a form of dishonesty.

 

[Spartanmack]

Or, since you saw those drives, you should know those were very improbable catches.

maybe, but athletes make plays sometimes, that's not really luck. and even if the catches were improbable, the fact that they caught them means they were at least in position keep your guy from making the catch and the passes being incomplete - interceptions aren't automatic (again, see MSU/psu go-ahead drive).

 

[Gulo Blue]

maybe, but athletes make plays sometimes, that's not really luck. and even if the catches were improbable, the fact that they caught them means they were at least in position keep your guy from making the catch and the passes being incomplete - interceptions aren't automatic (again, see MSU/psu go-ahead drive).

You'll talk yourself in circles until there's no such thing as luck. I understand. MSU tends to rank high whenever someone develops a luck metric.You probably don't want to believe there's any validity to it.

 

[Spartanmack]

I did not get outplayed. I didn't even play.

zing! you are too good at this.

 

[Spartanmack]

You'll talk yourself in circles until there's no such thing as luck. I understand. MSU tends to rank high whenever someone develops a luck metric.You probably don't want to believe there's any validity to it.

I just explained the difference between luck and execution and gave examples of both. The idea that I'm saying there's no such thing as luck is just nonsense. And in my real life example of a lucky play, MSU was the beneficiary, so you're wrong about that too.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I just explained the difference between luck and execution and gave examples of both. The idea that I'm saying there's no such thing as luck is just nonsense. And in my real life example of a lucky play, MSU was the beneficiary, so you're wrong about that too.

That won't stop you. I believe in you.

 

[Michchamp]

You'll talk yourself in circles until there's no such thing as luck. I understand. MSU tends to rank high whenever someone develops a luck metric.You probably don't want to believe there's any validity to it.

I would like to see that metric. I think Dantonio has been the luckiest Big Ten coach over the last decade, and maybe even the luckiest ever.

Penn State dropping two interceptions on MSU's game-winning drive was just the latest installment. They also had like 4 fumbles and recovered them all or something.

Unforced errors always seem to go MSU's way, like our fumbled punt snap in 2015.

 

[Spartanmack]

That won't stop you. I believe in you.

well, even if that's true, which clearly it's not, is that worse than not knowing the difference between luck and getting outplayed?

how about this? Wimbush is fortunate his receivers are better than your d-backs. Better?

 

[Gulo Blue]

I would like to see that metric. I think Dantonio has been the luckiest Big Ten coach over the last decade, and maybe even the luckiest ever.

Penn State dropping two interceptions on MSU's game-winning drive was just the latest installment. They also had like 4 fumbles and recovered them all or something.

Unforced errors always seem to go MSU's way, like our fumbled punt snap in 2015.

Yeah, the reason I mentioned it had a lot to do with the 4 recovered fumbles.
https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/1051529355757846528

 

[Spartanmack]

I would like to see that metric. I think Dantonio has been the luckiest Big Ten coach over the last decade, and maybe even the luckiest ever.

Penn State dropping two interceptions on MSU's game-winning drive was just the latest installment. They also had like 4 fumbles and recovered them all or something.

Unforced errors always seem to go MSU's way, like our fumbled punt snap in 2015.

I think they call that fake news. Nelson (MSU) muffed a punt reception, but recovered it. Other than that, I think it was PSU that benefited more from recovering their own fumbles or questionable calls. there was one that the refs ruled his fwd progress had been stopped, but both announcers disagreed, forward progress calls are not reviewable. Then another where the ball carrier was called down, again announcers disagreed but it wasn't reviewed. Both of those would-be fumbles were recovered by MSU. I don't recall MSU recovering a bunch of our own fumbles.

Edit: there were two MSU fumbles recovered by MSU, both on drives that ended w/ punts.

 

[Gulo Blue]

well, even if that's true, which clearly it's not, is that worse than not knowing the difference between luck and getting outplayed?

how about this? Wimbush is fortunate his receivers are better than your d-backs. Better?

No. Outplayed would suggest it was actually reasonable probability, because the receivers are so much better than the defenders. If you think that, having watched those plays, that it's pretty reasonable to expect ND to throw the ball into double coverage half the length of the field, where a defender gets a hand on it first, and comes down with it, because of some combination of Michigan's defenders being that bad and and ND offense being that good, speak up. Go ahead and let us know that that's how you saw those plays.

 

[Gulo Blue]

#6 luckiest team in 2014
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/1/30/7947287/college-football-turnover-luck-2014-tcu-oklahoma

 

[Spartanmack]

No. Outplayed would suggest it was actually reasonable probability, because the receivers are so much better than the defenders. If you think that, having watched those plays, that it's pretty reasonable to expect ND to throw the ball into double coverage half the length of the field, where a defender gets a hand on it first, and comes down with it, because of some combination of Michigan's defenders being that bad and and ND offense being that good, speak up. Go ahead and let us know that that's how you saw those plays.

no it doesn't suggest that at all. when someone calls a pass a 50/50 ball is not a precise measure. At best, it implies all else equal either player can get it, but all else is not equal and the result isn't necessarily luck one way and bad luck the other. the only coin toss is at the beginning of the game - and overtime, if necessary.

 

[Spartanmack]

#6 luckiest team in 2014
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/1/30/7947287/college-football-turnover-luck-2014-tcu-oklahoma

well, there it is in black and white (and shades of green and red), uofm just has to get a lot luckier. computers love michigan but whoever is handing out luck sure doesn't.

 

[Michchamp]

hey, if it makes you and gulo happy, I'm totally fine only getting troll credit for triggering butt hurt wolverine fans after page 3 or whatever. I only want credit for what the stats indicate I've earned.

Like a full third of the posts since page three are your own.


You're mostly trolling yourself, idiot.

 

[Spartanmack]

Like a full third of the posts since page three are your own.


You're mostly trolling yourself, idiot.

Like, no way. And there's the name calling. Didn't take you long to give up, longer than usual, but not long.

Dumbass. Now you can go whine to the mods about being called names.

 

[Gulo Blue]

no it doesn't suggest that at all. when someone calls a pass a 50/50 ball is not a precise measure. At best, it implies all else equal either player can get it, but all else is not equal and the result isn't necessarily luck one way and bad luck the other. the only coin toss is at the beginning of the game - and overtime, if necessary.

Why do you think I need to be told it's not exactly 50/50 after I just asked you a question about how likely it was? Is that your answer? "Not 50/50"? This is in the context of calling Michigan badly outplayed. You should have enough confidence to make stronger points than pointing out that it wasn't 50/50.